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SubscribeForecasting Patient Flows with Pandemic Induced Concept Drift using Explainable Machine Learning
Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.
A Novel Contrastive Learning Method for Clickbait Detection on RoCliCo: A Romanian Clickbait Corpus of News Articles
To increase revenue, news websites often resort to using deceptive news titles, luring users into clicking on the title and reading the full news. Clickbait detection is the task that aims to automatically detect this form of false advertisement and avoid wasting the precious time of online users. Despite the importance of the task, to the best of our knowledge, there is no publicly available clickbait corpus for the Romanian language. To this end, we introduce a novel Romanian Clickbait Corpus (RoCliCo) comprising 8,313 news samples which are manually annotated with clickbait and non-clickbait labels. Furthermore, we conduct experiments with four machine learning methods, ranging from handcrafted models to recurrent and transformer-based neural networks, to establish a line-up of competitive baselines. We also carry out experiments with a weighted voting ensemble. Among the considered baselines, we propose a novel BERT-based contrastive learning model that learns to encode news titles and contents into a deep metric space such that titles and contents of non-clickbait news have high cosine similarity, while titles and contents of clickbait news have low cosine similarity. Our data set and code to reproduce the baselines are publicly available for download at https://github.com/dariabroscoteanu/RoCliCo.
Methods for Legal Citation Prediction in the Age of LLMs: An Australian Law Case Study
In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great potential across a wide range of legal tasks. Despite these advances, mitigating hallucination remains a significant challenge, with state-of-the-art LLMs still frequently generating incorrect legal references. In this paper, we focus on the problem of legal citation prediction within the Australian law context, where correctly identifying and citing relevant legislations or precedents is critical. We compare several approaches: prompting general purpose and law-specialised LLMs, retrieval-only pipelines with both generic and domain-specific embeddings, task-specific instruction-tuning of LLMs, and hybrid strategies that combine LLMs with retrieval augmentation, query expansion, or voting ensembles. Our findings indicate that domain-specific pre-training alone is insufficient for achieving satisfactory citation accuracy even after law-specialised pre-training. In contrast, instruction tuning on our task-specific dataset dramatically boosts performance reaching the best results across all settings. We also highlight that database granularity along with the type of embeddings play a critical role in the performance of retrieval systems. Among retrieval-based approaches, hybrid methods consistently outperform retrieval-only setups, and among these, ensemble voting delivers the best result by combining the predictive quality of instruction-tuned LLMs with the retrieval system.
VOTE: Vision-Language-Action Optimization with Trajectory Ensemble Voting
Recent large-scale Vision Language Action (VLA) models have shown superior performance in robotic manipulation tasks guided by natural language. However, their generalization remains limited when applied to novel objects or unfamiliar environments that lie outside the training distribution. To address this, many existing approaches integrate additional components such as depth estimation, segmentation, or even diffusion to improve generalization, at the cost of adding significant computation overhead, resulting in low efficiency. This motivates the exploration of efficient action prediction methods, which are independent of additional high-level visual representations or diffusion techniques. In this work, we propose VOTE, an efficient and general framework for the optimization and acceleration of VLA models. In details, we propose a novel tokenizer-free fine-tuning approach for parallel accurate action prediction, which reduces computational overhead and accelerates inference speed. Additionally, we adopt an ensemble voting strategy for the action sampling, which significantly improves model performance and enhances generalization. Experimental results show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance with 35x faster inference and 145 Hz throughput. All the details and codes will be open-sourced.
Cluster Workload Allocation: A Predictive Approach Leveraging Machine Learning Efficiency
This research investigates how Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can assist in workload allocation strategies by detecting tasks with node affinity operators (referred to as constraint operators), which constrain their execution to a limited number of nodes. Using real-world Google Cluster Data (GCD) workload traces and the AGOCS framework, the study extracts node attributes and task constraints, then analyses them to identify suitable node-task pairings. It focuses on tasks that can be executed on either a single node or fewer than a thousand out of 12.5k nodes in the analysed GCD cluster. Task constraint operators are compacted, pre-processed with one-hot encoding, and used as features in a training dataset. Various ML classifiers, including Artificial Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbours, Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Ridge Regression, Adaptive Boosting, and Bagging, are fine-tuned and assessed for accuracy and F1-scores. The final ensemble voting classifier model achieved 98% accuracy and a 1.5-1.8% misclassification rate for tasks with a single suitable node.
PP-MobileSeg: Explore the Fast and Accurate Semantic Segmentation Model on Mobile Devices
The success of transformers in computer vision has led to several attempts to adapt them for mobile devices, but their performance remains unsatisfactory in some real-world applications. To address this issue, we propose PP-MobileSeg, a semantic segmentation model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on mobile devices. PP-MobileSeg comprises three novel parts: the StrideFormer backbone, the Aggregated Attention Module (AAM), and the Valid Interpolate Module (VIM). The four-stage StrideFormer backbone is built with MV3 blocks and strided SEA attention, and it is able to extract rich semantic and detailed features with minimal parameter overhead. The AAM first filters the detailed features through semantic feature ensemble voting and then combines them with semantic features to enhance the semantic information. Furthermore, we proposed VIM to upsample the downsampled feature to the resolution of the input image. It significantly reduces model latency by only interpolating classes present in the final prediction, which is the most significant contributor to overall model latency. Extensive experiments show that PP-MobileSeg achieves a superior tradeoff between accuracy, model size, and latency compared to other methods. On the ADE20K dataset, PP-MobileSeg achieves 1.57% higher accuracy in mIoU than SeaFormer-Base with 32.9% fewer parameters and 42.3% faster acceleration on Qualcomm Snapdragon 855. Source codes are available at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/PaddleSeg/tree/release/2.8.
Cross-Lingual Consistency: A Novel Inference Framework for Advancing Reasoning in Large Language Models
Chain-of-thought (CoT) has emerged as a critical mechanism for enhancing reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), with self-consistency demonstrating notable promise in boosting performance. However, inherent linguistic biases in multilingual training corpora frequently cause semantic drift and logical inconsistencies, especially in sub-10B parameter LLMs handling complex inference tasks. To overcome these constraints, we propose the Cross-Lingual Consistency (CLC) framework, an innovative inference paradigm that integrates multilingual reasoning paths through majority voting to elevate LLMs' reasoning capabilities. Empirical evaluations on the CMATH dataset reveal CLC's superiority over the conventional self-consistency method, delivering 9.5%, 6.5%, and 6.0% absolute accuracy gains for DeepSeek-Math-7B-Instruct, Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct, and Gemma2-9B-Instruct respectively. Expanding CLC's linguistic scope to 11 diverse languages implies two synergistic benefits: 1) neutralizing linguistic biases in multilingual training corpora through multilingual ensemble voting, 2) escaping monolingual reasoning traps by exploring the broader multilingual solution space. This dual benefits empirically enables more globally optimal reasoning paths compared to monolingual self-consistency baselines, as evidenced by the 4.1%-18.5% accuracy gains using Gemma2-9B-Instruct on the MGSM dataset.
PEFT for Speech: Unveiling Optimal Placement, Merging Strategies, and Ensemble Techniques
Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) is increasingly recognized as an effective method in speech processing. However, the optimal approach and the placement of PEFT methods remain inconclusive. Our study conducts extensive experiments to compare different PEFT methods and their layer-wise placement adapting Differentiable Architecture Search (DARTS). We also explore the use of ensemble learning to leverage diverse PEFT strategies. The results reveal that DARTS does not outperform the baseline approach, which involves inserting the same PEFT method into all layers of a Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) model. In contrast, an ensemble learning approach, particularly one employing majority voting, demonstrates superior performance. Our statistical evidence indicates that different PEFT methods learn in varied ways. This variation might explain why the synergistic integration of various PEFT methods through ensemble learning can harness their unique learning capabilities more effectively compared to individual layer-wise optimization.
An ensemble-based framework for mispronunciation detection of Arabic phonemes
Determination of mispronunciations and ensuring feedback to users are maintained by computer-assisted language learning (CALL) systems. In this work, we introduce an ensemble model that defines the mispronunciation of Arabic phonemes and assists learning of Arabic, effectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the very first attempt to determine the mispronunciations of Arabic phonemes employing ensemble learning techniques and conventional machine learning models, comprehensively. In order to observe the effect of feature extraction techniques, mel-frequency cepstrum coefficients (MFCC), and Mel spectrogram are blended with each learning algorithm. To show the success of proposed model, 29 letters in the Arabic phonemes, 8 of which are hafiz, are voiced by a total of 11 different person. The amount of data set has been enhanced employing the methods of adding noise, time shifting, time stretching, pitch shifting. Extensive experiment results demonstrate that the utilization of voting classifier as an ensemble algorithm with Mel spectrogram feature extraction technique exhibits remarkable classification result with 95.9% of accuracy.
LENS: Learning Ensemble Confidence from Neural States for Multi-LLM Answer Integration
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, with different models excelling in distinct domains and specific abilities. Effectively combining the predictions of multiple LLMs is crucial for enhancing system robustness and performance. However, existing ensemble methods often rely on simple techniques like voting or logits ensembling, which overlook the varying confidence and reliability of models in different contexts. In this work, we propose LENS (Learning ENsemble confidence from Neural States), a novel approach that learns to estimate model confidence by analyzing internal representations. For each LLM, we train a lightweight linear confidence predictor that leverages layer-wise hidden states and normalized probabilities as inputs. This allows for more nuanced weighting of model predictions based on their context-dependent reliability. Our method does not require modifying the model parameters and requires negligible additional computation. Experimental results on multiple-choice and boolean question-answering tasks demonstrate that LENS outperforms traditional ensemble methods by a substantial margin. Our findings suggest that internal representations provide valuable signals for determining model confidence and can be effectively leveraged for ensemble learning.
SitPose: Real-Time Detection of Sitting Posture and Sedentary Behavior Using Ensemble Learning With Depth Sensor
Poor sitting posture can lead to various work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs). Office employees spend approximately 81.8% of their working time seated, and sedentary behavior can result in chronic diseases such as cervical spondylosis and cardiovascular diseases. To address these health concerns, we present SitPose, a sitting posture and sedentary detection system utilizing the latest Kinect depth camera. The system tracks 3D coordinates of bone joint points in real-time and calculates the angle values of related joints. We established a dataset containing six different sitting postures and one standing posture, totaling 33,409 data points, by recruiting 36 participants. We applied several state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to the dataset and compared their performance in recognizing the sitting poses. Our results show that the ensemble learning model based on the soft voting mechanism achieves the highest F1 score of 98.1%. Finally, we deployed the SitPose system based on this ensemble model to encourage better sitting posture and to reduce sedentary habits.
Brain Tumor Detection and Classification based on Hybrid Ensemble Classifier
To improve patient survival and treatment outcomes, early diagnosis of brain tumors is an essential task. It is a difficult task to evaluate the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images manually. Thus, there is a need for digital methods for tumor diagnosis with better accuracy. However, it is still a very challenging task in assessing their shape, volume, boundaries, tumor detection, size, segmentation, and classification. In this proposed work, we propose a hybrid ensemble method using Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbour, and Decision Tree (DT) (KNN-RF-DT) based on Majority Voting Method. It aims to calculate the area of the tumor region and classify brain tumors as benign and malignant. In the beginning, segmentation is done by using Otsu's Threshold method. Feature Extraction is done by using Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT), Principle Component Analysis (PCA), and Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM), which gives thirteen features for classification. The classification is done by hybrid ensemble classifier (KNN-RF-DT) based on the Majority Voting method. Overall it aimed at improving the performance by traditional classifiers instead of going to deep learning. Traditional classifiers have an advantage over deep learning algorithms because they require small datasets for training and have low computational time complexity, low cost to the users, and can be easily adopted by less skilled people. Overall, our proposed method is tested upon dataset of 2556 images, which are used in 85:15 for training and testing respectively and gives good accuracy of 97.305%.
DriftMoE: A Mixture of Experts Approach to Handle Concept Drifts
Learning from non-stationary data streams subject to concept drift requires models that can adapt on-the-fly while remaining resource-efficient. Existing adaptive ensemble methods often rely on coarse-grained adaptation mechanisms or simple voting schemes that fail to optimally leverage specialized knowledge. This paper introduces DriftMoE, an online Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture that addresses these limitations through a novel co-training framework. DriftMoE features a compact neural router that is co-trained alongside a pool of incremental Hoeffding tree experts. The key innovation lies in a symbiotic learning loop that enables expert specialization: the router selects the most suitable expert for prediction, the relevant experts update incrementally with the true label, and the router refines its parameters using a multi-hot correctness mask that reinforces every accurate expert. This feedback loop provides the router with a clear training signal while accelerating expert specialization. We evaluate DriftMoE's performance across nine state-of-the-art data stream learning benchmarks spanning abrupt, gradual, and real-world drifts testing two distinct configurations: one where experts specialize on data regimes (multi-class variant), and another where they focus on single-class specialization (task-based variant). Our results demonstrate that DriftMoE achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art stream learning adaptive ensembles, offering a principled and efficient approach to concept drift adaptation. All code, data pipelines, and reproducibility scripts are available in our public GitHub repository: https://github.com/miguel-ceadar/drift-moe.
On Collective Robustness of Bagging Against Data Poisoning
Bootstrap aggregating (bagging) is an effective ensemble protocol, which is believed can enhance robustness by its majority voting mechanism. Recent works further prove the sample-wise robustness certificates for certain forms of bagging (e.g. partition aggregation). Beyond these particular forms, in this paper, we propose the first collective certification for general bagging to compute the tight robustness against the global poisoning attack. Specifically, we compute the maximum number of simultaneously changed predictions via solving a binary integer linear programming (BILP) problem. Then we analyze the robustness of vanilla bagging and give the upper bound of the tolerable poison budget. Based on this analysis, we propose hash bagging to improve the robustness of vanilla bagging almost for free. This is achieved by modifying the random subsampling in vanilla bagging to a hash-based deterministic subsampling, as a way of controlling the influence scope for each poisoning sample universally. Our extensive experiments show the notable advantage in terms of applicability and robustness.
The Mini-SiTian Array: real-bogus classification using deep learning
The Mini-SiTian (MST) project is a pathfinder for China's next-generation large-scale time-domain survey, SiTian, aimed at discovering variable stars, transients, and explosive events. MST generates hundreds of thousands of transient alerts every night, approximately 99\% of which are false alarms, posing a significant challenge to its scientific goals. To mitigate the impact of false positives, we propose a deep learning-based solution and systematically evaluate thirteen convolutional neural networks. The results show that ResNet achieves exceptional specificity (99.70\%), EfficientNet achieves the highest recall rate (98.68\%), and DenseNet provides balanced performance with a recall rate of 94.55\% and specificity of 98.66\%. Leveraging these complementary strengths, we developed a bagging-based ensemble classifier that integrates ResNet18, DenseNet121, and EfficientNet\_B0 using a soft voting strategy. This classifier achieved the best AUC value (0.9961) among all models, with a recall rate of 95.37\% and specificity of 99.25\%. It has now been successfully deployed in the MST real-time data processing pipeline. Validation using 5,000 practically processed samples with a classification threshold of 0.798 showed that the classifier achieved 88.31\% accuracy, 91.89\% recall rate, and 99.82\% specificity, confirming its effectiveness and robustness under real application conditions.
Wisdom of the Crowd: Reinforcement Learning from Coevolutionary Collective Feedback
Reinforcement learning (RL) has significantly enhanced the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but its reliance on expensive human-labeled data or complex reward models severely limits scalability. While existing self-feedback methods aim to address this problem, they are constrained by the capabilities of a single model, which can lead to overconfidence in incorrect answers, reward hacking, and even training collapse. To this end, we propose Reinforcement Learning from Coevolutionary Collective Feedback (RLCCF), a novel RL framework that enables multi-model collaborative evolution without external supervision. Specifically, RLCCF optimizes the ability of a model collective by maximizing its Collective Consistency (CC), which jointly trains a diverse ensemble of LLMs and provides reward signals by voting on collective outputs. Moreover, each model's vote is weighted by its Self-Consistency (SC) score, ensuring that more confident models contribute more to the collective decision. Benefiting from the diverse output distributions and complementary abilities of multiple LLMs, RLCCF enables the model collective to continuously enhance its reasoning ability through coevolution. Experiments on four mainstream open-source LLMs across four mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our framework yields significant performance gains, achieving an average relative improvement of 16.72\% in accuracy. Notably, RLCCF not only improves the performance of individual models but also enhances the group's majority-voting accuracy by 4.51\%, demonstrating its ability to extend the collective capability boundary of the model collective.
Eir: Thai Medical Large Language Models
We present Eir Thai Medical LLM, a large language model with 8 billion parameters, specifically designed to enhance the accuracy of handling medical tasks in the Thai language. This model focuses on providing clear and easy-to-understand answers for both healthcare professionals and patients, thereby improving the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment processes. Human evaluation was conducted to ensure that the model adheres to care standards and provides unbiased answers. To prioritize data security, the model is deployed within the hospital's internal network, ensuring both high security and faster processing speeds. The internal API connection is secured with encryption and strict authentication measures to prevent data leaks and unauthorized access. We evaluated several open-source large language models with 8 billion parameters on four medical benchmarks: MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA, and the medical subset of MMLU. The best-performing baselines were used to develop Eir Thai Medical LLM. Our evaluation employed multiple questioning strategies, including zero-shot, few-shot, chain-of-thought reasoning, and ensemble/self-consistency voting methods. Our model outperformed commercially available Thai-language large language models by more than 10%. In addition, we developed enhanced model testing tailored for clinical use in Thai across 18 clinical tasks, where our model exceeded GPT-4o performance by more than 11%
Exploration of Interpretability Techniques for Deep COVID-19 Classification using Chest X-ray Images
The outbreak of COVID-19 has shocked the entire world with its fairly rapid spread and has challenged different sectors. One of the most effective ways to limit its spread is the early and accurate diagnosing infected patients. Medical imaging, such as X-ray and Computed Tomography (CT), combined with the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI), plays an essential role in supporting medical personnel in the diagnosis process. Thus, in this article five different deep learning models (ResNet18, ResNet34, InceptionV3, InceptionResNetV2 and DenseNet161) and their ensemble, using majority voting have been used to classify COVID-19, pneumoni{\ae} and healthy subjects using chest X-ray images. Multilabel classification was performed to predict multiple pathologies for each patient, if present. Firstly, the interpretability of each of the networks was thoroughly studied using local interpretability methods - occlusion, saliency, input X gradient, guided backpropagation, integrated gradients, and DeepLIFT, and using a global technique - neuron activation profiles. The mean Micro-F1 score of the models for COVID-19 classifications ranges from 0.66 to 0.875, and is 0.89 for the ensemble of the network models. The qualitative results showed that the ResNets were the most interpretable models. This research demonstrates the importance of using interpretability methods to compare different models before making a decision regarding the best performing model.
Recognizing Extended Spatiotemporal Expressions by Actively Trained Average Perceptron Ensembles
Precise geocoding and time normalization for text requires that location and time phrases be identified. Many state-of-the-art geoparsers and temporal parsers suffer from low recall. Categories commonly missed by parsers are: nouns used in a non- spatiotemporal sense, adjectival and adverbial phrases, prepositional phrases, and numerical phrases. We collected and annotated data set by querying commercial web searches API with such spatiotemporal expressions as were missed by state-of-the- art parsers. Due to the high cost of sentence annotation, active learning was used to label training data, and a new strategy was designed to better select training examples to reduce labeling cost. For the learning algorithm, we applied an average perceptron trained Featurized Hidden Markov Model (FHMM). Five FHMM instances were used to create an ensemble, with the output phrase selected by voting. Our ensemble model was tested on a range of sequential labeling tasks, and has shown competitive performance. Our contributions include (1) an new dataset annotated with named entities and expanded spatiotemporal expressions; (2) a comparison of inference algorithms for ensemble models showing the superior accuracy of Belief Propagation over Viterbi Decoding; (3) a new example re-weighting method for active ensemble learning that 'memorizes' the latest examples trained; (4) a spatiotemporal parser that jointly recognizes expanded spatiotemporal expressions as well as named entities.
Debate or Vote: Which Yields Better Decisions in Multi-Agent Large Language Models?
Multi-Agent Debate~(MAD) has emerged as a promising paradigm for improving the performance of large language models through collaborative reasoning. Despite recent advances, the key factors driving MAD's effectiveness remain unclear. In this work, we disentangle MAD into two key components--Majority Voting and inter-agent Debate--and assess their respective contributions. Through extensive experiments across seven NLP benchmarks, we find that Majority Voting alone accounts for most of the performance gains typically attributed to MAD. To explain this, we propose a theoretical framework that models debate as a stochastic process. We prove that it induces a martingale over agents' belief trajectories, implying that debate alone does not improve expected correctness. Guided by these insights, we demonstrate that targeted interventions, by biasing the belief update toward correction, can meaningfully enhance debate effectiveness. Overall, our findings suggest that while MAD has potential, simple ensembling methods remain strong and more reliable alternatives in many practical settings. Code is released in https://github.com/deeplearning-wisc/debate-or-vote.
OpenMedLM: Prompt engineering can out-perform fine-tuning in medical question-answering with open-source large language models
LLMs have become increasingly capable at accomplishing a range of specialized-tasks and can be utilized to expand equitable access to medical knowledge. Most medical LLMs have involved extensive fine-tuning, leveraging specialized medical data and significant, thus costly, amounts of computational power. Many of the top performing LLMs are proprietary and their access is limited to very few research groups. However, open-source (OS) models represent a key area of growth for medical LLMs due to significant improvements in performance and an inherent ability to provide the transparency and compliance required in healthcare. We present OpenMedLM, a prompting platform which delivers state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance for OS LLMs on medical benchmarks. We evaluated a range of OS foundation LLMs (7B-70B) on four medical benchmarks (MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA, MMLU medical-subset). We employed a series of prompting strategies, including zero-shot, few-shot, chain-of-thought (random selection and kNN selection), and ensemble/self-consistency voting. We found that OpenMedLM delivers OS SOTA results on three common medical LLM benchmarks, surpassing the previous best performing OS models that leveraged computationally costly extensive fine-tuning. The model delivers a 72.6% accuracy on the MedQA benchmark, outperforming the previous SOTA by 2.4%, and achieves 81.7% accuracy on the MMLU medical-subset, establishing itself as the first OS LLM to surpass 80% accuracy on this benchmark. Our results highlight medical-specific emergent properties in OS LLMs which have not yet been documented to date elsewhere, and showcase the benefits of further leveraging prompt engineering to improve the performance of accessible LLMs for medical applications.
Can LLM Agents Really Debate? A Controlled Study of Multi-Agent Debate in Logical Reasoning
Multi-agent debate (MAD) has recently emerged as a promising framework for improving the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). Yet, whether LLM agents can genuinely engage in deliberative reasoning, beyond simple ensembling or majority voting, remains unclear. We address this question through a controlled study using the Knight--Knave--Spy logic puzzle, which enables precise, step-wise evaluation of debate outcomes and processes under verifiable ground truth. We systematically set up six structural and cognitive factors, including agent team size, composition, confidence visibility, debate order, debate depth, and task difficulty, to disentangle their respective effects on collective reasoning. Our results show that intrinsic reasoning strength and group diversity are the dominant drivers of debate success, while structural parameters such as order or confidence visibility offer limited gains. Beyond outcomes, process-level analyses identify key behavioral patterns: majority pressure suppresses independent correction, effective teams overturn incorrect consensus, and rational, validity-aligned reasoning most strongly predicts improvement. These findings provide valuable insights into how and why LLM debates succeed or fail, offering guidance for designing interpretable and truth-seeking multi-agent reasoning systems.
