Daily Papers

We present an ongoing initiative to provide open, very large, high-quality, and richly annotated textual datasets for almost 200 languages. At 30 trillion tokens, this is likely the largest generally available multilingual collection of LLM pre-training data. These datasets are derived from web crawls from different sources and accompanied with a complete, open-source pipeline for document selection from web archives, text extraction from HTML, language identification for noisy texts, exact and near-deduplication, annotation with, among others, register labels, text quality estimates, and personally identifiable information; and final selection and filtering. We report on data quality probes through contrastive and analytical statistics, through manual inspection of samples for 24 languages, and through end-to-end evaluation of various language model architectures trained on this data. For multilingual LLM evaluation, we provide a comprehensive collection of benchmarks for nine European languages, with special emphasis on natively created tasks, mechanisms to mitigate prompt sensitivity, and refined normalization and aggregation of scores. Additionally, we train and evaluate a family of 57 monolingual encoder-decoder models, as well as a handful of monolingual GPT-like reference models. Besides the monolingual data and models, we also present a very large collection of parallel texts automatically mined from this data, together with a novel parallel corpus synthesized via machine translation.

The polarization of an X-ray beam that produces electrons with velocity components perpendicular to the beam generates an azimuthal distribution of the ejected electrons. We present methods for simulating and for analyzing the angular dependence of electron detections which enable us to derive simple analytical expressions for useful statistical properties of observable data. The derivations are verified by simulations. While we confirm the results of previous work on this topic, we provide an extension needed for analytical treatment of the full range of possible polarization amplitudes.

Among generative models, diffusion models are uniquely intriguing due to the existence of a closed-form optimal minimizer of their training objective, often referred to as the optimal denoiser. However, diffusion using this optimal denoiser merely reproduces images in the training set and hence fails to capture the behavior of deep diffusion models. Recent work has attempted to characterize this gap between the optimal denoiser and deep diffusion models, proposing analytical, training-free models that can generate images that resemble those generated by a trained UNet. The best-performing method hypothesizes that shift equivariance and locality inductive biases of convolutional neural networks are the cause of the performance gap, hence incorporating these assumptions into its analytical model. In this work, we present evidence that the locality in deep diffusion models emerges as a statistical property of the image dataset, not due to the inductive bias of convolutional neural networks. Specifically, we demonstrate that an optimal parametric linear denoiser exhibits similar locality properties to the deep neural denoisers. We further show, both theoretically and experimentally, that this locality arises directly from the pixel correlations present in natural image datasets. Finally, we use these insights to craft an analytical denoiser that better matches scores predicted by a deep diffusion model than the prior expert-crafted alternative.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have been an important framework in the study of uncertainty quantification. Deterministic variational inference, one of the inference methods, utilizes moment propagation to compute the predictive distributions and objective functions. Unfortunately, deriving the moments requires computationally expensive Taylor expansion in nonlinear functions, such as a rectified linear unit (ReLU) or a sigmoid function. Therefore, a new nonlinear function that realizes faster moment propagation than conventional functions is required. In this paper, we propose a novel nonlinear function named moment propagating-Gaussian error linear unit (MP-GELU) that enables the fast derivation of first and second moments in BNNs. MP-GELU enables the analytical computation of moments by applying nonlinearity to the input statistics, thereby reducing the computationally expensive calculations required for nonlinear functions. In empirical experiments on regression tasks, we observed that the proposed MP-GELU provides higher prediction accuracy and better quality of uncertainty with faster execution than those of ReLU-based BNNs.

It has previously been reported that the representation that is learned in the first layer of deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) is highly consistent across initializations and architectures. In this work, we quantify this consistency by considering the first layer as a filter bank and measuring its energy distribution. We find that the energy distribution is very different from that of the initial weights and is remarkably consistent across random initializations, datasets, architectures and even when the CNNs are trained with random labels. In order to explain this consistency, we derive an analytical formula for the energy profile of linear CNNs and show that this profile is mostly dictated by the second order statistics of image patches in the training set and it will approach a whitening transformation when the number of iterations goes to infinity. Finally, we show that this formula for linear CNNs also gives an excellent fit for the energy profiles learned by commonly used nonlinear CNNs such as ResNet and VGG, and that the first layer of these CNNs indeed perform approximate whitening of their inputs.

Analytical reasoning is an essential and challenging task that requires a system to analyze a scenario involving a set of particular circumstances and perform reasoning over it to make conclusions. In this paper, we study the challenge of analytical reasoning of text and introduce a new dataset consisting of questions from the Law School Admission Test from 1991 to 2016. We analyze what knowledge understanding and reasoning abilities are required to do well on this task. Furthermore, to address this reasoning challenge, we design two different baselines: (1) a Transformer-based method which leverages the state-of-the-art pre-trained language models and (2) Analytical Reasoning Machine (ARM), a logical-level reasoning framework extracting symbolic knowledge (e.g, participants, facts, logical functions) to deduce legitimate solutions. In our experiments, we find that the Transformer-based models struggle to solve this task as their performance is close to random guess and ARM achieves better performance by leveraging symbolic knowledge and interpretable reasoning steps. Results show that both methods still lag far behind human performance, which leave further space for future research.

Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. However, there are many analytic choices which must be made to produce these samples. Though many of these choices are defensible, their impact on sample quality is poorly understood. I map out these analytic choices and demonstrate how a very small number of decisions can dramatically change the correspondence between silicon samples and human data. Configurations (N = 252) varied substantially in their capacity to estimate (i) rank ordering of participants, (ii) response distributions, and (iii) between-scale correlations. Most critically, configurations were not consistent in quality: those that performed well on one dimension often performed poorly on another, implying that there is no "one-size-fits-all" configuration that optimises the accuracy of these samples. I call for greater attention to the threat of analytic flexibility in using silicon samples.

On social media, Arabic people tend to express themselves in their own local dialects. More particularly, Tunisians use the informal way called "Tunisian Arabizi". Analytical studies seek to explore and recognize online opinions aiming to exploit them for planning and prediction purposes such as measuring the customer satisfaction and establishing sales and marketing strategies. However, analytical studies based on Deep Learning are data hungry. On the other hand, African languages and dialects are considered low resource languages. For instance, to the best of our knowledge, no annotated Tunisian Arabizi dataset exists. In this paper, we introduce TUNIZI a sentiment analysis Tunisian Arabizi Dataset, collected from social networks, preprocessed for analytical studies and annotated manually by Tunisian native speakers.

This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.

Is there a statistical difference between Naive Bayes and Random Forest in terms of recall, f-measure, and precision for predicting software defects? By utilizing systematic literature review and meta-analysis, we are answering this question. We conducted a systematic literature review by establishing criteria to search and choose papers, resulting in five studies. After that, using the meta-data and forest-plots of five chosen papers, we conducted a meta-analysis to compare the two models. The results have shown that there is no significant statistical evidence that Naive Bayes perform differently from Random Forest in terms of recall, f-measure, and precision.

Static word embeddings are ubiquitous in computational social science applications and contribute to practical decision-making in a variety of fields including law and healthcare. However, assessing the statistical uncertainty in downstream conclusions drawn from word embedding statistics has remained challenging. When using only point estimates for embeddings, researchers have no streamlined way of assessing the degree to which their model selection criteria or scientific conclusions are subject to noise due to sparsity in the underlying data used to generate the embeddings. We introduce a method to obtain approximate, easy-to-use, and scalable reconstruction error variance estimates for GloVe (Pennington et al., 2014), one of the most widely used word embedding models, using an analytical approximation to a multivariate normal model. To demonstrate the value of embeddings with variance (GloVe-V), we illustrate how our approach enables principled hypothesis testing in core word embedding tasks, such as comparing the similarity between different word pairs in vector space, assessing the performance of different models, and analyzing the relative degree of ethnic or gender bias in a corpus using different word lists.

Automated Essay Score (AES) is proven to be one of the cutting-edge technologies. Scoring techniques are used for various purposes. Reliable scores are calculated based on influential variables. Such variables can be computed by different methods based on the domain. The research is concentrated on the user's understanding of a given topic. The analysis is based on a scoring index by using Large Language Models. The user can then compare and contrast the understanding of a topic that they recently learned. The results are then contributed towards learning analytics and progression is made for enhancing the learning ability. In this research, the focus is on summarizing a PDF document and gauging a user's understanding of its content. The process involves utilizing a Langchain tool to summarize the PDF and extract the essential information. By employing this technique, the research aims to determine how well the user comprehends the summarized content.

The paper considers the use of GPT models with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for qualitative and quantitative analytics on NATO sentiments, NATO unity and NATO Article 5 trust opinion scores in different web sources: news sites found via Google Search API, Youtube videos with comments, and Reddit discussions. A RAG approach using GPT-4.1 model was applied to analyse news where NATO related topics were discussed. Two levels of RAG analytics were used: on the first level, the GPT model generates qualitative news summaries and quantitative opinion scores using zero-shot prompts; on the second level, the GPT model generates the summary of news summaries. Quantitative news opinion scores generated by the GPT model were analysed using Bayesian regression to get trend lines. The distributions found for the regression parameters make it possible to analyse an uncertainty in specified news opinion score trends. Obtained results show a downward trend for analysed scores of opinion related to NATO unity. This approach does not aim to conduct real political analysis; rather, it consider AI based approaches which can be used for further analytics as a part of a complex analytical approach. The obtained results demonstrate that the use of GPT models for news analysis can give informative qualitative and quantitative analytics, providing important insights. The dynamic model based on neural ordinary differential equations was considered for modelling public opinions. This approach makes it possible to analyse different scenarios for evolving public opinions.

In this paper, we introduce analytic federated learning (AFL), a new training paradigm that brings analytical (i.e., closed-form) solutions to the federated learning (FL) community. Our AFL draws inspiration from analytic learning -- a gradient-free technique that trains neural networks with analytical solutions in one epoch. In the local client training stage, the AFL facilitates a one-epoch training, eliminating the necessity for multi-epoch updates. In the aggregation stage, we derive an absolute aggregation (AA) law. This AA law allows a single-round aggregation, removing the need for multiple aggregation rounds. More importantly, the AFL exhibits a weight-invariant property, meaning that regardless of how the full dataset is distributed among clients, the aggregated result remains identical. This could spawn various potentials, such as data heterogeneity invariance, client-number invariance, absolute convergence, and being hyperparameter-free (our AFL is the first hyperparameter-free method in FL history). We conduct experiments across various FL settings including extremely non-IID ones, and scenarios with a large number of clients (e.g., ge 1000). In all these settings, our AFL constantly performs competitively while existing FL techniques encounter various obstacles. Code is available at https://github.com/ZHUANGHP/Analytic-federated-learning

The statistical analysis of large scale legal corpus can provide valuable legal insights. For such analysis one needs to (1) select a subset of the corpus using document retrieval tools, (2) structuralize text using information extraction (IE) systems, and (3) visualize the data for the statistical analysis. Each process demands either specialized tools or programming skills whereas no comprehensive unified "no-code" tools have been available. Especially for IE, if the target information is not predefined in the ontology of the IE system, one needs to build their own system. Here we provide NESTLE, a no code tool for large-scale statistical analysis of legal corpus. With NESTLE, users can search target documents, extract information, and visualize the structured data all via the chat interface with accompanying auxiliary GUI for the fine-level control. NESTLE consists of three main components: a search engine, an end-to-end IE system, and a Large Language Model (LLM) that glues the whole components together and provides the chat interface. Powered by LLM and the end-to-end IE system, NESTLE can extract any type of information that has not been predefined in the IE system opening up the possibility of unlimited customizable statistical analysis of the corpus without writing a single line of code. The use of the custom end-to-end IE system also enables faster and low-cost IE on large scale corpus. We validate our system on 15 Korean precedent IE tasks and 3 legal text classification tasks from LEXGLUE. The comprehensive experiments reveal NESTLE can achieve GPT-4 comparable performance by training the internal IE module with 4 human-labeled, and 192 LLM-labeled examples. The detailed analysis provides the insight on the trade-off between accuracy, time, and cost in building such system.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress in coding and math problem-solving, but evaluation on advanced research-level problems in hard sciences remains scarce. To fill this gap, we present CMT-Benchmark, a dataset of 50 problems covering condensed matter theory (CMT) at the level of an expert researcher. Topics span analytical and computational approaches in quantum many-body, and classical statistical mechanics. The dataset was designed and verified by a panel of expert researchers from around the world. We built the dataset through a collaborative environment that challenges the panel to write and refine problems they would want a research assistant to solve, including Hartree-Fock, exact diagonalization, quantum/variational Monte Carlo, density matrix renormalization group (DMRG), quantum/classical statistical mechanics, and model building. We evaluate LLMs by programmatically checking solutions against expert-supplied ground truth. We developed machine-grading, including symbolic handling of non-commuting operators via normal ordering. They generalize across tasks too. Our evaluations show that frontier models struggle with all of the problems in the dataset, highlighting a gap in the physical reasoning skills of current LLMs. Notably, experts identified strategies for creating increasingly difficult problems by interacting with the LLMs and exploiting common failure modes. The best model, GPT5, solves 30\% of the problems; average across 17 models (GPT, Gemini, Claude, DeepSeek, Llama) is 11.4pm2.1\%. Moreover, 18 problems are solved by none of the 17 models, and 26 by at most one. These unsolved problems span Quantum Monte Carlo, Variational Monte Carlo, and DMRG. Answers sometimes violate fundamental symmetries or have unphysical scaling dimensions. We believe this benchmark will guide development toward capable AI research assistants and tutors.

Abstractive summarization models are commonly trained using maximum likelihood estimation, which assumes a deterministic (one-point) target distribution in which an ideal model will assign all the probability mass to the reference summary. This assumption may lead to performance degradation during inference, where the model needs to compare several system-generated (candidate) summaries that have deviated from the reference summary. To address this problem, we propose a novel training paradigm which assumes a non-deterministic distribution so that different candidate summaries are assigned probability mass according to their quality. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art result on the CNN/DailyMail (47.78 ROUGE-1) and XSum (49.07 ROUGE-1) datasets. Further analysis also shows that our model can estimate probabilities of candidate summaries that are more correlated with their level of quality.

Data-driven scientific discovery requires the iterative integration of scientific domain knowledge, statistical expertise, and an understanding of data semantics to make nuanced analytical decisions, e.g., about which variables, transformations, and statistical models to consider. LM-based agents equipped with planning, memory, and code execution capabilities have the potential to support data-driven science. However, evaluating agents on such open-ended tasks is challenging due to multiple valid approaches, partially correct steps, and different ways to express the same decisions. To address these challenges, we present BLADE, a benchmark to automatically evaluate agents' multifaceted approaches to open-ended research questions. BLADE consists of 12 datasets and research questions drawn from existing scientific literature, with ground truth collected from independent analyses by expert data scientists and researchers. To automatically evaluate agent responses, we developed corresponding computational methods to match different representations of analyses to this ground truth. Though language models possess considerable world knowledge, our evaluation shows that they are often limited to basic analyses. However, agents capable of interacting with the underlying data demonstrate improved, but still non-optimal, diversity in their analytical decision making. Our work enables the evaluation of agents for data-driven science and provides researchers deeper insights into agents' analysis approaches.

1. The popularity of Machine learning (ML), Deep learning (DL), and Artificial intelligence (AI) has risen sharply in recent years. Despite this spike in popularity, the inner workings of ML and DL algorithms are often perceived as opaque, and their relationship to classical data analysis tools remains debated. 2. Although it is often assumed that ML and DL excel primarily at making predictions, ML and DL can also be used for analytical tasks traditionally addressed with statistical models. Moreover, most recent discussions and reviews on ML focus mainly on DL, missing out on synthesizing the wealth of ML algorithms with different advantages and general principles. 3. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the field of ML and DL, starting by summarizing its historical developments, existing algorithm families, differences to traditional statistical tools, and universal ML principles. We then discuss why and when ML and DL models excel at prediction tasks and where they could offer alternatives to traditional statistical methods for inference, highlighting current and emerging applications for ecological problems. Finally, we summarize emerging trends such as scientific and causal ML, explainable AI, and responsible AI that may significantly impact ecological data analysis in the future. 4. We conclude that ML and DL are powerful new tools for predictive modeling and data analysis. The superior performance of ML and DL algorithms compared to statistical models can be explained by their higher flexibility and automatic data-dependent complexity optimization. However, their use for causal inference is still disputed as the focus of ML and DL methods on predictions creates challenges for the interpretation of these models. Nevertheless, we expect ML and DL to become an indispensable tool in E&E, comparable to other traditional statistical tools.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Text data can pose a risk of harm. However, the risks are not fully understood, and how to handle, present, and discuss harmful text in a safe way remains an unresolved issue in the NLP community. We provide an analytical framework categorising harms on three axes: (1) the harm type (e.g., misinformation, hate speech or racial stereotypes); (2) whether a harm is sought as a feature of the research design if explicitly studying harmful content (e.g., training a hate speech classifier), versus unsought if harmful content is encountered when working on unrelated problems (e.g., language generation or part-of-speech tagging); and (3) who it affects, from people (mis)represented in the data to those handling the data and those publishing on the data. We provide advice for practitioners, with concrete steps for mitigating harm in research and in publication. To assist implementation we introduce HarmCheck -- a documentation standard for handling and presenting harmful text in research.

In the domain of semantic parsing, significant progress has been achieved in Text-to-SQL and question-answering tasks, both of which focus on extracting information from data sources in their native formats. However, the inherent constraints of their formal meaning representations, such as SQL programming language or basic logical forms, hinder their ability to analyze data from various perspectives, such as conducting statistical analyses. To address this limitation and inspire research in this field, we design SIGMA, a new dataset for Text-to-Code semantic parsing with statistical analysis. SIGMA comprises 6000 questions with corresponding Python code labels, spanning across 160 databases. Half of the questions involve query types, which return information in its original format, while the remaining 50% are statistical analysis questions, which perform statistical operations on the data. The Python code labels in our dataset cover 4 types of query types and 40 types of statistical analysis patterns. We evaluated the SIGMA dataset using three different baseline models: LGESQL, SmBoP, and SLSQL. The experimental results show that the LGESQL model with ELECTRA outperforms all other models, achieving 83.37% structure accuracy. In terms of execution accuracy, the SmBoP model, when combined with GraPPa and T5, reaches 76.38%.

Studies of density matrices for random quantum states lead naturally to the fixed trace Laguerre ensemble in random matrix theory. Previous studies have uncovered explicit rational function formulas for moments of purity statistic (trace of the squared density matrix), and also a third order linear differential equation satisfied by the eigenvalue density. We further probe the origin of these results from the viewpoint of integrability, which is taken here to mean wider classes of recursions and differential equations, and give extensions. Prominent in our study are first order linear matrix differential equations. One application given is to the derivation of the third order scalar equation for the density. Another is to obtain the explicit rational function formula for the variance of the purity statistic in the β generalised fixed trace Laguerre ensemble. In the original case (β= 2), the purity cumulants are expressed in terms of the large argument expansion of a particular σ-Painlevé IV transcendent. In a different but related direction, the exact computation of the two-point correlation for the fixed determinant circular unitary ensemble SU(N) is given the Appendix.

The analytical description of charts is an exciting and important research area with many applications in academia and industry. Yet, this challenging task has received limited attention from the computational linguistics research community. This paper proposes AutoChart, a large dataset for the analytical description of charts, which aims to encourage more research into this important area. Specifically, we offer a novel framework that generates the charts and their analytical description automatically. We conducted extensive human and machine evaluations on the generated charts and descriptions and demonstrate that the generated texts are informative, coherent, and relevant to the corresponding charts.

As a relatively new form of sport, esports offers unparalleled data availability. Despite the vast amounts of data that are generated by game engines, it can be challenging to extract them and verify their integrity for the purposes of practical and scientific use. Our work aims to open esports to a broader scientific community by supplying raw and pre-processed files from StarCraft II esports tournaments. These files can be used in statistical and machine learning modeling tasks and related to various laboratory-based measurements (e.g., behavioral tests, brain imaging). We have gathered publicly available game-engine generated "replays" of tournament matches and performed data extraction and cleanup using a low-level application programming interface (API) parser library. Additionally, we open-sourced and published all the custom tools that were developed in the process of creating our dataset. These tools include PyTorch and PyTorch Lightning API abstractions to load and model the data. Our dataset contains replays from major and premiere StarCraft II tournaments since 2016. To prepare the dataset, we processed 55 tournament "replaypacks" that contained 17930 files with game-state information. Based on initial investigation of available StarCraft II datasets, we observed that our dataset is the largest publicly available source of StarCraft II esports data upon its publication. Analysis of the extracted data holds promise for further Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), psychological, Human-Computer Interaction (HCI), and sports-related studies in a variety of supervised and self-supervised tasks.

Clinical trials disruption has always represented a non negligible part of the ending of interventional studies. While the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to an impressive and unprecedented initiation of clinical research, it has also led to considerable disruption of clinical trials in other disease areas, with around 80% of non-COVID-19 trials stopped or interrupted during the pandemic. In many cases the disrupted trials will not have the planned statistical power necessary to yield interpretable results. This paper describes methods to compensate for the information loss arising from trial disruptions by incorporating additional information available from auxiliary data sources. The methods described include the use of auxiliary data on baseline and early outcome data available from the trial itself and frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the incorporation of information from external data sources. The methods are illustrated by application to the analysis of artificial data based on the Primary care pediatrics Learning Activity Nutrition (PLAN) study, a clinical trial assessing a diet and exercise intervention for overweight children, that was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We show how all of the methods proposed lead to an increase in precision relative to use of complete case data only.

Zipf's law appears in many application areas but does not have a closed form expression, which may make its use cumbersome. Since it coincides with the truncated version of the Zeta distribution, in this paper we propose three approximate closed form expressions for the truncated Zeta distribution, which may be employed for Zipf's law as well. The three approximations are based on the replacement of the sum occurring in Zipf's law with an integral, and are named respectively the integral approximation, the average integral approximation, and the trapezoidal approximation. While the first one is shown to be of little use, the trapezoidal approximation exhibits an error which is typically lower than 1\%, but is as low as 0.1\% for the range of values of the Zipf parameter below 1.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools in artificial intelligence (AI), exhibiting remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks such as text generation, reasoning, and decision-making. While their success has primarily been driven by advances in computational power and deep learning architectures, emerging problems -- in areas such as uncertainty quantification, decision-making, causal inference, and distribution shift -- require a deeper engagement with the field of statistics. This paper explores potential areas where statisticians can make important contributions to the development of LLMs, particularly those that aim to engender trustworthiness and transparency for human users. Thus, we focus on issues such as uncertainty quantification, interpretability, fairness, privacy, watermarking and model adaptation. We also consider possible roles for LLMs in statistical analysis. By bridging AI and statistics, we aim to foster a deeper collaboration that advances both the theoretical foundations and practical applications of LLMs, ultimately shaping their role in addressing complex societal challenges.

Advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning have catalyzed the transformation of big data analytics and management into pivotal domains for research and application. This work explores the theoretical foundations, methodological advancements, and practical implementations of these technologies, emphasizing their role in uncovering actionable insights from massive, high-dimensional datasets. The study presents a systematic overview of data preprocessing techniques, including data cleaning, normalization, integration, and dimensionality reduction, to prepare raw data for analysis. Core analytics methodologies such as classification, clustering, regression, and anomaly detection are examined, with a focus on algorithmic innovation and scalability. Furthermore, the text delves into state-of-the-art frameworks for data mining and predictive modeling, highlighting the role of neural networks, support vector machines, and ensemble methods in tackling complex analytical challenges. Special emphasis is placed on the convergence of big data with distributed computing paradigms, including cloud and edge computing, to address challenges in storage, computation, and real-time analytics. The integration of ethical considerations, including data privacy and compliance with global standards, ensures a holistic perspective on data management. Practical applications across healthcare, finance, marketing, and policy-making illustrate the real-world impact of these technologies. Through comprehensive case studies and Python-based implementations, this work equips researchers, practitioners, and data enthusiasts with the tools to navigate the complexities of modern data analytics. It bridges the gap between theory and practice, fostering the development of innovative solutions for managing and leveraging data in the era of artificial intelligence.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

In this time when biased information, deep fakes, and propaganda proliferate, the accessibility of reliable data sources is more important than ever. National statistical institutes provide curated data that contain quantitative information on a wide range of topics. However, that information is typically spread across many tables and the plain numbers may be arduous to process. Hence, this open data may be practically inaccessible. We ask the question "Are current Generative AI models capable of facilitating the identification of the right data and the fully-automatic creation of charts to provide information in visual form, corresponding to user queries?". We present a structured evaluation of recent large language models' (LLMs) capabilities to generate charts from complex data in response to user queries. Working with diverse public data from Statistics Netherlands, we assessed multiple LLMs on their ability to identify relevant data tables, perform necessary manipulations, and generate appropriate visualizations autonomously. We propose a new evaluation framework spanning three dimensions: data retrieval & pre-processing, code quality, and visual representation. Results indicate that locating and processing the correct data represents the most significant challenge. Additionally, LLMs rarely implement visualization best practices without explicit guidance. When supplemented with information about effective chart design, models showed marked improvement in representation scores. Furthermore, an agentic approach with iterative self-evaluation led to excellent performance across all evaluation dimensions. These findings suggest that LLMs' effectiveness for automated chart generation can be enhanced through appropriate scaffolding and feedback mechanisms, and that systems can already reach the necessary accuracy across the three evaluation dimensions.

We present a generic framework for creating differentially private versions of any hypothesis test in a black-box way. We analyze the resulting tests analytically and experimentally. Most crucially, we show good practical performance for small data sets, showing that at epsilon = 1 we only need 5-6 times as much data as in the fully public setting. We compare our work to the one existing framework of this type, as well as to several individually-designed private hypothesis tests. Our framework is higher power than other generic solutions and at least competitive with (and often better than) individually-designed tests.

Online news media sometimes use misleading headlines to lure users to open the news article. These catchy headlines that attract users but disappointed them at the end, are called Clickbaits. Because of the importance of automatic clickbait detection in online medias, lots of machine learning methods were proposed and employed to find the clickbait headlines. In this research, a model using deep learning methods is proposed to find the clickbaits in Clickbait Challenge 2017's dataset. The proposed model gained the first rank in the Clickbait Challenge 2017 in terms of Mean Squared Error. Also, data analytics and visualization techniques are employed to explore and discover the provided dataset to get more insight from the data.

CONTEXT The R programming language has a huge and active community, especially in the area of statistical computing. Its interpreted nature allows for several interesting constructs, like the manipulation of functions at run-time, that hinder the static analysis of R programs. At the same time, there is a lack of existing research regarding how these features, or even the R language as a whole are used in practice. OBJECTIVE In this paper, we conduct a large-scale, static analysis of more than 50 million lines of real-world R programs and packages to identify their characteristics and the features that are actually used. Moreover, we compare the similarities and differences between the scripts of R users and the implementations of package authors. We provide insights for static analysis tools like the lintr package as well as potential interpreter optimizations and uncover areas for future research. METHOD We analyze 4230 R scripts submitted alongside publications and the sources of 19450 CRAN packages for over 350000 R files, collecting and summarizing quantitative information for features of interest. RESULTS We find a high frequency of name-based indexing operations, assignments, and loops, but a low frequency for most of R's reflective functions. Furthermore, we find neither testing functions nor many calls to R's foreign function interface (FFI) in the publication submissions. CONCLUSION R scripts and package sources differ, for example, in their size, the way they include other packages, and their usage of R's reflective capabilities. We provide features that are used frequently and should be prioritized by static analysis tools, like operator assignments, function calls, and certain reflective functions like load.

We introduce LongDA, a data analysis benchmark for evaluating LLM-based agents under documentation-intensive analytical workflows. In contrast to existing benchmarks that assume well-specified schemas and inputs, LongDA targets real-world settings in which navigating long documentation and complex data is the primary bottleneck. To this end, we manually curate raw data files, long and heterogeneous documentation, and expert-written publications from 17 publicly available U.S. national surveys, from which we extract 505 analytical queries grounded in real analytical practice. Solving these queries requires agents to first retrieve and integrate key information from multiple unstructured documents, before performing multi-step computations and writing executable code, which remains challenging for existing data analysis agents. To support the systematic evaluation under this setting, we develop LongTA, a tool-augmented agent framework that enables document access, retrieval, and code execution, and evaluate a range of proprietary and open-source models. Our experiments reveal substantial performance gaps even among state-of-the-art models, highlighting the challenges researchers should consider before applying LLM agents for decision support in real-world, high-stakes analytical settings.

Mathematical problem-solving is a key field in artificial intelligence (AI) and a critical benchmark for evaluating the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). While extensive research has focused on mathematical problem-solving, most existing work and datasets concentrate on computational tasks, leaving gaps in areas like mathematical analysis, which demands rigorous proofs and formal reasoning. We developed the DEMI-MathAnalysis dataset, comprising proof-based problems from mathematical analysis topics such as Sequences and Limits, Infinite Series, and Convex Functions. We also designed a guiding framework to rigorously enhance LLMs' ability to solve these problems. Through fine-tuning LLMs on this dataset and employing our framework, we observed significant improvements in their capability to generate logical, complete, and elegant proofs. This work addresses critical gaps in mathematical reasoning and contributes to advancing trustworthy AI capable of handling formalized mathematical language. The code is publicly accessible at LLMs for Mathematical Analysis.

The availability of structured legal data is important for advancing Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques for the German legal system. One of the most widely used datasets, Open Legal Data, provides a large-scale collection of German court decisions. While the metadata in this raw dataset is consistently structured, the decision texts themselves are inconsistently formatted and often lack clearly marked sections. Reliable separation of these sections is important not only for rhetorical role classification but also for downstream tasks such as retrieval and citation analysis. In this work, we introduce a cleaned and sectioned dataset of 251,038 German court decisions derived from the official Open Legal Data dataset. We systematically separated three important sections in German court decisions, namely Tenor (operative part of the decision), Tatbestand (facts of the case), and Entscheidungsgründe (judicial reasoning), which are often inconsistently represented in the original dataset. To ensure the reliability of our extraction process, we used Cochran's formula with a 95% confidence level and a 5% margin of error to draw a statistically representative random sample of 384 cases, and manually verified that all three sections were correctly identified. We also extracted the Rechtsmittelbelehrung (appeal notice) as a separate field, since it is a procedural instruction and not part of the decision itself. The resulting corpus is publicly available in the JSONL format, making it an accessible resource for further research on the German legal system.

The global trade in electronic and electrical goods is complicated by the challenge of identifying e-waste, which is often misclassified to evade regulations. Traditional analysis methods struggle to discern the underlying patterns of this illicit trade within vast datasets. This research proposes and validates a robust, data-driven framework to segment products and identify goods exhibiting an anomalous "waste signature" a trade pattern defined by a clear 'inverse price-volume'. The core of the framework is an Outlier-Aware Segmentation method, an iterative K-Means approach that first isolates extreme outliers to prevent data skewing and then re-clusters the remaining products to reveal subtle market segments. To quantify risk, a "Waste Score" is developed using a Logistic Regression model that identifies products whose trade signatures are statistically similar to scrap. The findings reveal a consistent four-tier market hierarchy in both Malaysian and global datasets. A key pattern emerged from a comparative analysis: Malaysia's market structure is defined by high-volume bulk commodities, whereas the global market is shaped by high-value capital goods, indicating a unique national specialization. The framework successfully flags finished goods, such as electric generators (HS 8502), that are traded like scrap, providing a targeted list for regulatory scrutiny.

Data-analytic agents are emerging as a key catalyst for automated scientific discovery and for the vision of Innovating AI. Current approaches, however, rely heavily on prompt engineering over proprietary models, while open-source models struggle to face diverse-format, large-scale data files and long-horizon, multi-step reasoning that real-world analytics demands. This paper introduces DataMind, a scalable data synthesis and agent training recipe designed to build generalist data-analytic agents. DataMind tackles three key challenges in building open-source data-analytic agents, including insufficient data resources, improper training strategy, and unstable code-based multi-turn rollout. Concretely, DataMind applies 1) a fine-grained task taxonomy and a recursive easy-to-hard task composition mechanism to increase the diversity and difficulty of synthesized queries; 2) a knowledge-augmented trajectory sampling strategy followed by model-based and rule-based filtering; 3) a dynamically adjustable training objective combining both SFT and RL losses; 4) a memory-frugal and stable code-based multi-turn rollout framework. Built on DataMind, we curate DataMind-12K, a high-quality trajectory set spanning diverse domains, task categories, and data file formats for data-analytic tasks. Trained on DataMind-12K, our DataMind-14B achieves state-of-the-art with an average score of 71.16% on multiple data analysis benchmarks, outperforming the strongest proprietary baselines DeepSeek-V3.1 and GPT-5. Our DataMind-7B also performs best among all open-source models with a score of 68.10%. We also incorporate some empirical insights gained from our exploratory trials into the analysis experiments, aiming to provide actionable insights about agentic training for the community. We will release DataMind-12K and DataMind-7B,14B for the community's future research.

Meta-analysis is a systematic research methodology that synthesizes data from multiple existing studies to derive comprehensive conclusions. This approach not only mitigates limitations inherent in individual studies but also facilitates novel discoveries through integrated data analysis. Traditional meta-analysis involves a complex multi-stage pipeline including literature retrieval, paper screening, and data extraction, which demands substantial human effort and time. However, while LLM-based methods can accelerate certain stages, they still face significant challenges, such as hallucinations in paper screening and data extraction. In this paper, we propose a multi-agent system, Manalyzer, which achieves end-to-end automated meta-analysis through tool calls. The hybrid review, hierarchical extraction, self-proving, and feedback checking strategies implemented in Manalyzer significantly alleviate these two hallucinations. To comprehensively evaluate the performance of meta-analysis, we construct a new benchmark comprising 729 papers across 3 domains, encompassing text, image, and table modalities, with over 10,000 data points. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Manalyzer achieves significant performance improvements over the LLM baseline in multi meta-analysis tasks. Project page: https://black-yt.github.io/meta-analysis-page/ .

Meta-analyses statistically aggregate the findings of different randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to assess treatment effectiveness. Because this yields robust estimates of treatment effectiveness, results from meta-analyses are considered the strongest form of evidence. However, rigorous evidence syntheses are time-consuming and labor-intensive, requiring manual extraction of data from individual trials to be synthesized. Ideally, language technologies would permit fully automatic meta-analysis, on demand. This requires accurately extracting numerical results from individual trials, which has been beyond the capabilities of natural language processing (NLP) models to date. In this work, we evaluate whether modern large language models (LLMs) can reliably perform this task. We annotate (and release) a modest but granular evaluation dataset of clinical trial reports with numerical findings attached to interventions, comparators, and outcomes. Using this dataset, we evaluate the performance of seven LLMs applied zero-shot for the task of conditionally extracting numerical findings from trial reports. We find that massive LLMs that can accommodate lengthy inputs are tantalizingly close to realizing fully automatic meta-analysis, especially for dichotomous (binary) outcomes (e.g., mortality). However, LLMs -- including ones trained on biomedical texts -- perform poorly when the outcome measures are complex and tallying the results requires inference. This work charts a path toward fully automatic meta-analysis of RCTs via LLMs, while also highlighting the limitations of existing models for this aim.

Computational notebooks such as Jupyter Notebook have become data scientists' de facto programming environments. Many visualization researchers and practitioners have developed interactive visualization tools that support notebooks. However, little is known about the appropriate design of visual analytics (VA) tools in notebooks. To bridge this critical research gap, we investigate the design strategies in this space by analyzing 159 notebook VA tools and their users' feedback. Our analysis encompasses 62 systems from academic papers and 103 systems sourced from a pool of 55k notebooks containing interactive visualizations that we obtain via scraping 8.6 million notebooks on GitHub. We also examine findings from 15 user studies and user feedback in 379 GitHub issues. Through this work, we identify unique design opportunities and considerations for future notebook VA tools, such as using and manipulating multimodal data in notebooks as well as balancing the degree of visualization-notebook integration. Finally, we develop SuperNOVA, an open-source interactive tool to help researchers explore existing notebook VA tools and search for related work.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

We describe HypotheSAEs, a general method to hypothesize interpretable relationships between text data (e.g., headlines) and a target variable (e.g., clicks). HypotheSAEs has three steps: (1) train a sparse autoencoder on text embeddings to produce interpretable features describing the data distribution, (2) select features that predict the target variable, and (3) generate a natural language interpretation of each feature (e.g., "mentions being surprised or shocked") using an LLM. Each interpretation serves as a hypothesis about what predicts the target variable. Compared to baselines, our method better identifies reference hypotheses on synthetic datasets (at least +0.06 in F1) and produces more predictive hypotheses on real datasets (~twice as many significant findings), despite requiring 1-2 orders of magnitude less compute than recent LLM-based methods. HypotheSAEs also produces novel discoveries on two well-studied tasks: explaining partisan differences in Congressional speeches and identifying drivers of engagement with online headlines.

Identifying Out-of-distribution (OOD) data is becoming increasingly critical as the real-world applications of deep learning methods expand. Post-hoc methods modify softmax scores fine-tuned on outlier data or leverage intermediate feature layers to identify distinctive patterns between In-Distribution (ID) and OOD samples. Other methods focus on employing diverse OOD samples to learn discrepancies between ID and OOD. These techniques, however, are typically dependent on the quality of the outlier samples assumed. Density-based methods explicitly model class-conditioned distributions but this requires long training time or retraining the classifier. To tackle these issues, we introduce FlowCon, a new density-based OOD detection technique. Our main innovation lies in efficiently combining the properties of normalizing flow with supervised contrastive learning, ensuring robust representation learning with tractable density estimation. Empirical evaluation shows the enhanced performance of our method across common vision datasets such as CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 pretrained on ResNet18 and WideResNet classifiers. We also perform quantitative analysis using likelihood plots and qualitative visualization using UMAP embeddings and demonstrate the robustness of the proposed method under various OOD contexts. Code will be open-sourced post decision.

There are a few prominent practices for conducting reviews of academic literature, including searching for specific keywords on Google Scholar or checking citations from some initial seed paper(s). These approaches serve a critical purpose for academic literature reviews, yet there remain challenges in identifying relevant literature when similar work may utilize different terminology (e.g., mixed-initiative visual analytics papers may not use the same terminology as papers on model-steering, yet the two topics are relevant to one another). In this paper, we introduce a system, VitaLITy, intended to complement existing practices. In particular, VitaLITy promotes serendipitous discovery of relevant literature using transformer language models, allowing users to find semantically similar papers in a word embedding space given (1) a list of input paper(s) or (2) a working abstract. VitaLITy visualizes this document-level embedding space in an interactive 2-D scatterplot using dimension reduction. VitaLITy also summarizes meta information about the document corpus or search query, including keywords and co-authors, and allows users to save and export papers for use in a literature review. We present qualitative findings from an evaluation of VitaLITy, suggesting it can be a promising complementary technique for conducting academic literature reviews. Furthermore, we contribute data from 38 popular data visualization publication venues in VitaLITy, and we provide scrapers for the open-source community to continue to grow the list of supported venues.

Recent advancements in the collection and analysis of sequential educational data have brought time series analysis to a pivotal position in educational research, highlighting its essential role in facilitating data-driven decision-making. However, there is a lack of comprehensive summaries that consolidate these advancements. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to provide a comprehensive review of time series analysis techniques specifically within the educational context. We begin by exploring the landscape of educational data analytics, categorizing various data sources and types relevant to education. We then review four prominent time series methods-forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection-illustrating their specific application points in educational settings. Subsequently, we present a range of educational scenarios and applications, focusing on how these methods are employed to address diverse educational tasks, which highlights the practical integration of multiple time series methods to solve complex educational problems. Finally, we conclude with a discussion on future directions, including personalized learning analytics, multimodal data fusion, and the role of large language models (LLMs) in educational time series. The contributions of this paper include a detailed taxonomy of educational data, a synthesis of time series techniques with specific educational applications, and a forward-looking perspective on emerging trends and future research opportunities in educational analysis. The related papers and resources are available and regularly updated at the project page.

In a striking neuroscience study, the authors placed a dead salmon in an MRI scanner and showed it images of humans in social situations. Astonishingly, standard analyses of the time reported brain regions predictive of social emotions. The explanation, of course, was not supernatural cognition but a cautionary tale about misapplied statistical inference. In AI interpretability, reports of similar ''dead salmon'' artifacts abound: feature attribution, probing, sparse auto-encoding, and even causal analyses can produce plausible-looking explanations for randomly initialized neural networks. In this work, we examine this phenomenon and argue for a pragmatic statistical-causal reframing: explanations of computational systems should be treated as parameters of a (statistical) model, inferred from computational traces. This perspective goes beyond simply measuring statistical variability of explanations due to finite sampling of input data; interpretability methods become statistical estimators, and findings should be tested against explicit and meaningful alternative computational hypotheses, with uncertainty quantified with respect to the postulated statistical model. It also highlights important theoretical issues, such as the identifiability of common interpretability queries, which we argue is critical to understand the field's susceptibility to false discoveries, poor generalizability, and high variance. More broadly, situating interpretability within the standard toolkit of statistical inference opens promising avenues for future work aimed at turning AI interpretability into a pragmatic and rigorous science.

We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.

Charts play a critical role in data analysis and visualization, yet real-world applications often present charts with challenging or noisy features. However, "outlier charts" pose a substantial challenge even for Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), which can struggle to interpret perturbed charts. In this work, we introduce CHAOS (CHart Analysis with Outlier Samples), a robustness benchmark to systematically evaluate MLLMs against chart perturbations. CHAOS encompasses five types of textual and ten types of visual perturbations, each presented at three levels of severity (easy, mid, hard) inspired by the study result of human evaluation. The benchmark includes 13 state-of-the-art MLLMs divided into three groups (i.e., general-, document-, and chart-specific models) according to the training scope and data. Comprehensive analysis involves two downstream tasks (ChartQA and Chart-to-Text). Extensive experiments and case studies highlight critical insights into robustness of models across chart perturbations, aiming to guide future research in chart understanding domain. Data and code are publicly available at: http://huggingface.co/datasets/omoured/CHAOS.

With the rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, the research community has started spending considerable effort in technical analysis of such data. Forecasting is also an area which has witnessed a paradigm shift in its approach. In this work, we have used the time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the Trend, the Seasonal component, and the Random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed three approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. The results clearly demonstrate the accuracy of our decomposition results and efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a dominant Random component in the time series.

The relationship between professional skills and higher education programs is modeled as a non-directed bipartite network with binary entries representing the links between 28 skills (as captured by the occupational information network, O*NET) and 258 graduate program summaries (as captured by commercial brochures of graduate programs in marketing with accreditation standards of the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business). While descriptive analysis for skills suggests a qualitative lack of alignment between the job demands captured by O*NET, inferential analyses based on exponential random graph model estimates show that skills' popularity and homophily coexist with a systematic yet weak alignment to job demands for marketing managers.

Electronic sports (esports) and research on this emerging field are interdisciplinary in nature. By extension, it is essential to understand how to standardize and structure training with the help of existing tools developed by years of research in sports sciences and informatics. Our goal in this article was to verify if the current body of research contains substantial evidence of the training systems applied to training esports players. To verify the existing sources, we have applied a framework of scoping review to address the search from multiple scientific databases with further local processing. We conclude that the current research on esports dealt mainly with describing and modeling performance metrics spanned over multiple fragmented research areas (psychology, nutrition, informatics), and yet these building blocks were not assembled into an existing well-functioning theory of performance in esports by providing exercise regimes, and ways of periodization for esports.

Minkowski functionals quantify the morphology of smooth random fields. They are widely used to probe statistical properties of cosmological fields. Analytic formulae for ensemble expectations of Minkowski functionals are well known for Gaussian and mildly non-Gaussian fields. In this paper we extend the formulae to composite fields which are sums of two fields and explicitly derive the expressions for the sum of uncorrelated mildly non-Gaussian and Gaussian fields. These formulae are applicable to observed data which is usually a sum of the true signal and one or more secondary fields that can be either noise, or some residual contaminating signal. Our formulae provide explicit quantification of the effect of the secondary field on the morphology and statistical nature of the true signal. As examples, we apply the formulae to determine how the presence of Gaussian noise can bias the morphological properties and statistical nature of Gaussian and non-Gaussian CMB temperature maps.

In this paper, we present a novel framework for the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis [27], which is composed of three key components: a) probabilistic modeling with cross entropy optimization and reasoning; b) the application of the law of large numbers; c) the application of mathematical inductions. The analysis is mainly conducted by virtue of probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning with rare event simulation techniques. The application of the law of large numbers [2, 3, 6] and the application of mathematical inductions make the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis self-contained and complete to make sure that the whole complex plane is covered as conjectured in Riemann Hypothesis. We also discuss the method of enhanced top-p sampling with large language models (LLMs) for reasoning, where next token prediction is not just based on the estimated probabilities of each possible token in the current round but also based on accumulated path probabilities among multiple top-k chain of thoughts (CoTs) paths. The probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning may suit well with the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis as Riemann Zeta functions are inherently dealing with the sums of infinite components of a complex number series. We hope that our analysis in this paper could shed some light on some of the insights of Riemann Hypothesis. The framework and techniques presented in this paper, coupled with recent developments with chain of thought (CoT) or diagram of thought (DoT) reasoning in large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL) [1, 7, 18, 21, 24, 34, 39-41], could pave the way for eventual proof of Riemann Hypothesis [27].

Understanding the changing structure of science over time is essential to elucidating how science evolves. We develop diachronic embeddings of scholarly periodicals to quantify "semantic changes" of periodicals across decades, allowing us to track the evolution of research topics and identify rapidly developing fields. By mapping periodicals within a physical-life-health triangle, we reveal an evolving interdisciplinary science landscape, finding an overall trend toward specialization for most periodicals but increasing interdisciplinarity for bioscience periodicals. Analyzing a periodical's trajectory within this triangle over time allows us to visualize how its research focus shifts. Furthermore, by monitoring the formation of local clusters of periodicals, we can identify emerging research topics such as AIDS research and nanotechnology in the 1980s. Our work offers novel quantification in the science of science and provides a quantitative lens to examine the evolution of science, which may facilitate future investigations into the emergence and development of research fields.