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in the wake of changing climate conditions This will enable investigation into how fine scale spatial variation in community structure and recruitment mediate the strength of the different feedback processes stabilizing kelp forest and urchin barren states We need to capture data at larger spatial scales than previously possible because kelp forests exhibit highly variable spatial patterns including gradients patchy dynamics and localized extinction and recolonization Thus far kelp forest survey methods have primarily relied on SCUBA divers though the spatial extent divers can survey is extremely limited relative to the true extent of the system Disentangling signals from demographic and environmental stochasticity remains a challenge as does extrapolating findings from any one specific location These spatial challenges are temporally exacerbated by the existence of periodic fluctuations in ocean condition such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Therefore truly capturing the manner in which kelp forest resilience varies requires mapping species habitat associations across a large spatial extent ideally structured as to capture spatial variation in the density of keystone predators such as sea otters Likewise the true test of resilience requires long term longitudinal monitoring to capture how these spatial patterns vary and respond

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text:
to perturbations over time Here we accentuate the need to capture this information because of the inherent dynamic complexity and spatiotemporal scales of kelp forest regulation particularly given the challenges presented by differing spatial scales of kelp invertebrate and fish dispersal Kelp invertebrates and fishes comprising healthy kelp forests are structured by different regulatory processes at different spatiotemporal scales Cavanaugh et al 2013 and pulse perturbations can alter the predominant spatial scale of regulation Edwards 2004 Reed et al 2011 Giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera release massive quantities of spores that produce gametophytes dispersed on the order of tens of meters to a few kilometers Santelices 1990 Schiel Foster 2006 and thus meta population theory predicts synchronous population dynamics at the spatial scale of dispersal Fitness Fewer 1986 A Hastings Harrison 1994 Instead even contiguous stretches of reef exhibit kelp subpopulations that fluctuate asynchronously akin to patches within a broader network Cavanaugh et al 2014 While spore dispersal is key for enabling recolonization particularly for distanced and smaller patches localized extinction is often a stronger determinant of kelp dynamics Castorani et al 2015 This is because local heterogeneity in the form of variation in substrate and community structure drive local processes

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text:
such as intra and inter specific competition for space to grow along the benthos as well as herbivory and predatory consumer resource interactions The strength and resilience of these local scale processes encompass many of the stabilizing feedback processes that provide resilience to the kelp forest state and support Coastal Ecosystem Health hence the need to capture local high resolution metrics of species habitat associations across a broad spatial extent Though local scale regulatory control is fundamental to kelp patch dynamics populations are also subject to forcing from larger scale processes such as storms discussed below and the pelagic dispersal of larvae Marine propagules from invertebrates such as sea urchins and fishes can travel for tens to hundreds of kilometers with coastal currents Baetscher et al 2019 da Anadón et al 2011 Kinlan Gaines 2003 Their dispersal processes operate at a much broader spatial scale relative to kelp spore dispersal thus invertebrate and fish connectivity can synchronize populations along a coastline a phenomenon known as the Moran effect Gouhier et al 2010 Ranta et al 1997 This dynamic synchrony across space can occur when dispersal enabled settlement overwhelms local heterogeneity That is when local rates of replenishment are decoupled from

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text:
the local regulatory processes structuring adult individuals Karatayev Baskett 2020 For example urchin barrens can persist despite high adult urchin mortality from density dependent disease outbreaks Behrens Lafferty 2004 because urchin settlement and recruitment are decoupled from both local larval output and from the top down disease mortality affecting adults In essence dispersal mediated stabilizing urchin barren feedbacks supersede the density dependent urchin mortality locally structuring the adult population enabling persistence of the urchin barren state In contrast widespread dispersal may not elicit spatial synchrony if local scale feedback processes are sufficiently resilient e g if the local community exerts high post settlement mortality upon urchins e g through keystone sea otter predation Pulse perturbations such as warm water events modify the strength of local stabilizing feedback processes thus predisposing kelp forests to dispersal mediated synchrony of the urchin barren state Kelp forests are stabilized through spore production dispersal growth and the conversion through senescence of live kelp into drift algae which sea urchins prefer to consume As a result losing kelp i e losing the associated stabilizing feedback processes particularly across large stretches of a coastline reduces the short term capacity of kelp to recover If a perturbation occurs

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text:
simultaneously or temporally lags by a couple of years a strong sea urchin recruitment event the combination can limit kelp recovery due to continual grazing pressure and subsequent dispersal mediated urchin recruitment can further stabilize the barren state Therefore this project seeks to understand how the local heterogeneity stabilizing kelp forests interacts with propagule input to provide either resilient persistence of the kelp forest state or abrupt movement towards and a stabilization of the urchin barren state This interaction between local heterogeneity and propagule input is not static but rather is anticipated to be modified both by the effects of keystone predators such as sea otters and by pulse perturbations and slow changes in environmental variables associated with climate change Therefore we need to capture community information across a spatial extent with varying sea otter density and we likewise need to capture the manner in which these spatial patterns respond through time both to pulse perturbations and slowly changing environmental variables The potential for sea otters to mitigate some negative effects of climate change Sea otters exert profound trophic effects upon temperate rocky reef ecosystems via consumption of invertebrate prey In contrast to all other marine mammals the lack of

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text:
significant adipose tissue requires an extremely high metabolism and caloric supply to balance the thermoregulatory costs of living in a temperate marine environment This translates to a voracious appetite and sea otters are capable of consuming 20 30 of their body weight a day with the average Northern sea otter weighing 70 female to 90 male pounds Hale et al 2019 The indirect effects of such strong and direct consumer resource interactions ripple throughout the benthos and in locations where sea otters are the primary means of regulating populations of herbivorous sea urchins such as the Aleutian Islands and parts of British Columbia Canada sea otter presence or absence is the difference between a diverse productive and healthy kelp forest or a species depauperate state of urchin barrens Estes Duggins 1995 Watson Estes 2011 In other locations however particularly lower latitude systems e g central California the precise role of sea otter predation relative to other processes structuring kelp forests is less clear and debate exists over the relative importance of top down processes such as predation upon sea urchins and sea urchin disease events versus bottom up processes such as kelp spore dispersal kelp recruitment and variation in the

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text:
myriad physical variables influencing kelp growth Foster Schiel 2010 While the consumer resource interactions driven by sea otter foraging are reasonably well understood the notion that sea otters might mitigate some of the negative ecological effects of climate change remains uncertain but is an idea gaining traction Wilmers et al 2012 Sea otters cannot affect the creation or strength of an anomalous warm water event but they may limit some of the negative ecological fallout that would otherwise occur in their absence A recent study in the Aleutian Archipelago found that in locations lacking sea otters Clathromorphum spp beds slow growing calcareous algae were structurally weakened by increasing ocean acidification and thus were more susceptible to sea urchin grazing Unfortunately a concomitant warm water event increased the rate at which sea urchins grazed upon the weakened algae the net effects of the two physical variables channeled through sea urchin grazing destroyed the Clathromorphum spp beds The authors argued that if sea otters had been present to regulate sea urchin abundance and behavior such a loss could have been significantly mitigated Rasher et al 2020 A similar theme is suggested by the recent 2013 anomalous warm water event and subsequent nearshore

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ecological fallout along stretches of the Northeast Pacific coast Despite large scale sea star loss along the Washington Coast concordant with the broader SSWS event the benthos i e mobile and sessile invertebrates and turf understory and canopy macroalgae within OCNMS seems to have fared better in locations where sea otters are frequent relative to locations where sea otters are seldom observed Figure 1 Seattle Aquarium unpublished data When the spatial focus expands the contrast is unmistakable locations still lacking sea otters following the Maritime Fur Trade i e northern California and Oregon now exhibit large stretches of urchin barrens closed fisheries and emergency responses in the form of urchin culls and kelp forest restoration efforts Rogers Bennett Catton 2019 We address central California below but first note that southern California mostly lacks sea otters Lafferty Tinker 2014 but still has other sea urchin predators such as Sheephead wrasse Semicossyphus pulcher and the California spiny lobster Panulirus interruptus and accordingly southern Californian reefs have fared better Sea otter occupied central California is a test of the hypothesis regarding sea otters and coastal resilience While kelp overall is doing better there relative to northern California the spatial scale at which sea

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text:
otters mitigate the effects of urchin barrens is now in question Recent research demonstrates sea otters actively avoid foraging on starving gonad lacking urchin barren urchins and instead focus upon healthy gravid urchins within kelp forests Smith et al 2021 Thus while there is suggestive evidence that sea otters and predation upon sea urchins in general may regionally increase kelp forest resilience habitat specific foraging preferences have the capacity to strengthen the already inherently patchy dynamics of kelp forests at the local scale The manner in which these scale dependent sea otter foraging effects interact with kelp forest and urchin barren feedback processes such as kelp and urchin recruitment is entirely unknown Goals and Objectives Approach A new modality of benthic monitoring to confront the challenges of a changing climate Here we propose to establish a new paradigm of long term kelp forest monitoring in accordance with NOAA s 2020 2021 Research Priority Areas both for Unmanned Systems UxS and Artificial Intelligence We will deploy ROVs to capture high resolution imagery of the benthos at spatial scales untapped by current benthic kelp forest monitoring programs Divers will also survey the fixed ROV locations enabling diver ROV overlap and methodological comparison

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text:
We will use machine learning e g supervised classification on imagery gathered by ROV and divers to test how taxonomic identifiability varies 1 between ROV and diver imaging platforms and 2 relative to observational diver data These spatially explicit classified abundances mobile conspicuous species and percent coverages sessile encrusting organisms will be paired with habitat characteristics from existing acoustic imagery to generate habitat suitability models via a Bayesian Network approach We will also use in situ diver sampling to measure kelp urchin and rockfish recruitment and combining ROV surveys and recruitment metrics will help disentangle the relative effects of local heterogeneity and propagule input upon community dynamics By deploying a network of long term monitoring sites that overlap areas with and without strong keystone sea otter predation we will examine the manner in which 1 local heterogeneity 2 propagule input 3 keystone sea otter predation and 4 pulse perturbations all interact to affect kelp forest community structure species diversity and ecological resilience over time 1 1 Test ROV handling and imaging protocols with customized ROV Large scale ROV surveys have yet to take place within kelp forests let alone be utilized for a long term kelp forest monitoring program Thus

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text:
we first must rigorously scrutinize ROV survey parameters to establish effective kelp forest imaging protocols The Seattle Aquarium was recently awarded a grant from the Sea Otter Foundation and Trust to purchase a a small customizable and highly maneuverable ROV Over summer and fall 2021 before Washington Sea Grant WSG funding begins we will stage a benthic facing camera array on the underside of this ROV consisting of two high resolution and image stabilized cameras light strobes and laser size guides We will use an acoustic pinger to enable the ROV to maintain a constant elevation above the benthos This will allow us to obtain imagery at a consistent scale which is crucial for maximizing the efficacy of AI methods of image analysis And via an acoustic ultra short baseline ROV tracking system from collaborator Bob Pacunski at the WDFW all our ROV imagery will be indexed with geospatial coordinates allowing us to align our benthic community data with existing GIS layers We will evaluate how ROV speed elevation above seafloor and camera settings affect data acquisition and the subsequent efficacy of image classification and we will evaluate how environmental conditions such as turbidity and structural complexity such as boulders

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pinnacles and walls affect ROV handling and image acquisition Concurrent with 1 2 these ROV surveys will overlap with SCUBA diver transects to investigate the effects of layering i e where turf and understory canopy obscure the benthos from overhead imaging and the degree to which ROV imagery can or cannot capture small cryptic and rare threatened species such as pinto abalone 1 2 Test how community inference varies between ROV imagery and diver collected data In partnership with NMFS the WDFW and OCNMS and also during Summer and Fall 2021 we will directly align both ROV surveys and SCUBA divers to 1 ground truth our classified images of species and taxa 2 contrast the ease and efficacy of data collection methods and 3 understand how taxonomic resolution via machine learning image classification varies compared to video and standard abundance data collected by divers Specifically we will overlap ROV transects with the benthic monitoring program initiated in 2015 Shelton et al 2018 by NMFS and OCNMS Figure 2 Our approach will be similar to studies that have contrasted inference between human annotated ROV video and in situ human observers Andaloro et al 2013 Boavida et al 2016 Sward et al

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