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2019 Wetz et al 2020 and we will extend these comparisons to include ROV and diver imagery classified via machine learning Co PIs Randell and Feist will lead these efforts by leveraging a 1 1 overlap between ROV and diver imagery processed via machine learning and data from those two imaging methods will be compared to traditional diver observations This early work will be essential for properly integrating emerging technologies into benthic monitoring and we will publish all code and results from this methods comparison 2 1 Establish network of long term subtidal monitoring sites Once ROV protocols are established and starting Spring 2022 i e once WSG funding begins we propose to install five subtidal sites offshore of Neah Bay and five along the northern portion of the Olympic Coast Figure 2 Several of the five sites offshore of Neah Bay will be established in locations where sea otters exhibit low densities Hale et al 2019 Three of our Neah Bay sites will expand upon the Seattle Aquarium s long term rockfish monitoring program and we will work with the Makah Tribe to strategically place the other two Neah Bay sites in locations of conservation and management interest to

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text:
the Tribe Along the Outer Coast we will establish one site each at Point of the Arches and Anderson Point in order to fill in gaps that the NMFS subtidal sites do not regularly capture Figure 2 Furthermore these Outer Coast sites will align with locations historically surveyed Kvitek 2001 Kvitek et al 1989 1998 Several of our Outer Coast sites will be placed in locations that exhibit high sea otter densities enabling us to evaluate how sea otter abundance distribution and behavior associate with species diversity kelp and invertebrate dynamics and ecological resilience over time all of which are indicators of Coastal Ecosystem Health a WSG critical program area Note that these first ten sites represent the initiation of a broader research program once successfully established we will expand this network by adding additional sites along the Olympic Coast down to Destruction Island At each site we will deploy a small pelican buoy 1m above the benthos at approximately 15m depth to designate 1 the ROV survey area 2 locations where divers will measure kelp and urchin recruitment and 3 the placement of our array measuring reef fish recruitment see 2 2 Eye bolts installed in the substrate will

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text:
mark fixed ROV transects ROV surveys will take place annually in Years 1 2 and the size of the ROV survey area will depend upon results from 1 1 1 2 ROVs will obtain benthic imagery of canopy and understory kelp turf and encrusting and articulated coralline algae mobile and sessile invertebrates and demersal fish Divers will survey cryptic species such as pinto abalone that likely cannot be detected on ROV imagery While we are applying for two years of funding through WSG once initiated the Seattle Aquarium will advance this project as a long term coastal research and monitoring program The Seattle Aquarium has engaged in long term monitoring of marine ecosystems for decades 20 years monitoring Washington s sea otters 15 years surveying rockfish benthic algae and invertebrates in five sites near Neah Bay 12 years surveying eight coral reef systems along the Northwest side of Hawai i Island 12 years surveying rockfish and ecosystems changes in eight sites throughout Puget Sound We are committed to maintaining our long term ecosystem monitoring projects Once this project is initiated we are committed to securing funds through a variety of sources to continue the project e g general operating funds

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text:
public and private grants 2 2 Measurements of kelp sea urchin and rockfish recruitment SCUBA divers will survey fixed quadrats along the benthos to measure small sea urchin recruits 1 5 cm and divers will also survey the abundance of kelp recruits along fixed transects Co PI Randell will lead these field efforts in the spring summer and fall in Years 1 2 Given the relatively rapid temporal scale at which sea urchin larval densities fluctuate within an in situ sample brush it would not be appropriate for our sampling to attempt to measure those patterns Ebert 2010 Okamoto et al 2020 Instead we will bypass the larval phase to capture the net effects of post settlement processes by counting very young recruits in situ Previous long term monitoring of sea urchin settlement recruitment and adult population densities indicate these small recruits are in part predictive of subsequent adult abundances Okamoto et al 2020 Thus our approach is designed to capture the extent to which sea urchin recruitment either does or does not subsequently predict adult sea urchin densities and the concordance or lack thereof between recruits and adults will indicate the degree to which local processes are regulating sea

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text:
urchins Quadrats will be sampled along the substrate in a stratified manner such that adequate replicates are placed within both forested and urchin barren locations when both conditions are present For one week each spring summer and fall we will deploy three SMURFs at each site to measure the patterns of reef fish recruitment Ammann 2004 These plastic mesh cylinders staged 2m below the surface have been used along the coasts of California and Oregon and tap into the affinity of fish larvae to settle upon physical structure Wilson et al 2011 Surveying these SMURFs each day as part of a long term program will capture the spatiotemporal patterns of young of the year YOY recruitment and their response to changing climate conditions We will work with existing SMURF programs to standardize our sampling procedures e g degree of SMURF fouling We will make our data available to researchers using SMURFs or cruises to study recruitment including researchers investigating the concordance between offshore planktonic larval availability and subsequent nearshore YOY recruitment Tavernetti et al 2009 3 1 Use AI to analyze benthic imagery and establish a kelp forest library In accordance with NOAA s 2020 Artificial Intelligence Strategy to analyze

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text:
our benthic imagery we will use machine learning e g supervised classification via Convolutional Neural Networks CNNs to first train and then classify individual and conspicuous species and percent coverage from benthic images Alom et al 2019 Raphael et al 2020 Villon et al 2018 We will leverage existing analytical pipelines to rapidly train and establish a repository of annotated kelp forest imagery and we will make our work open source akin to CoralNet Beijbom et al 2015 Williams et al 2019 It is our hope this repository will gather data from researchers worldwide to enable broader meta analyses of kelp forest dynamics Much of the benefit of the program is contextual integration This extends to the data and analytics We recognize the volume and heterogeneity of the datasets and pipelines created coupled with the need to provide open access to the data and methodology We will leverage Co PI Collins extensive Data and AI Management experience from the commercial sector specifically Microsoft to ensure the overall data system is built for consistency scale and accessibility To illustrate one example of AI for species identification we developed an object detection model using open cognitive services to identify purple urchins in

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text:
still images Examples summarize the pipeline established Figure 3 This type of algorithm will be useful for conspicuous and individually countable species such as sea urchins sea stars certain species of sponges some macroalgae and fish However many other taxa are colonial or have individuals that are difficult to distinguish therefore we used CoralNet s resources to train a preliminary percent coverage algorithm to detect purple urchins and Pycnopodia from 100 sample points distributed across an image We propose to expand this algorithm to detect coralline algae turf algae understory and canopy brown algae and sessile invertebrates such as hydroids cup corals bryozoans tunicates and sponges from benthic imagery A core principle is to collect and archive imagery of coastal marine flora and fauna that can be used by anyone for an array of ecosystem analyses Once imagery is recorded and cataloged it can be used for any number of analytic approaches and maintained historically to enable analysis across time discover new associations and address new questions retrospectively Our commitment to provide open access to these data means training data sets image libraries models and processes can be used and built upon by others to address emerging questions We envision

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text:
that even the training images could be used for public outreach as a pictorial of species in context 3 2 Metrics of resilience via a Bayesian Network approach to habitat suitability modeling To create habitat suitability models for kelp invertebrates fishes and sea otters Co PI Randell will pair spatially explicit community data with habitat characteristics derived from existing side scan sonar and bathymetry data from around Neah Bay and the Olympic Coast Via analysis with the Benthic Terrain Modeler tool in ArcGIS we will extract and classify physical attributes such as substrate type slope rugosity depth aspect and distance to shore With our spatially referenced community data we will then create Bayesian Networks BNs in R to compile species specific maps of a Probabilities of Occurrences POs the posterior probability of encountering a species given the underlying bathymetric characteristics b measurements of uncertainty from the posterior distribution of the POs and c experience maps delineating locations with habitat features similar to locations that are data rich i e locations that exhibit bathymetric features similar to the areas that calibrated the model Havron et al 2017 Marcot 2012 Marcot et al 2006 BNs are robust to small data sets gaps

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text:
in data and multicollinearity making them ideal for modeling species associations with benthic substrate particularly given the high likelihood of collinear variables see Havron et al 2017 for an example of implementing BNs for habitat suitability modeling of benthic invertebrates gathered from soft sediment grab boxes The novelty of what we propose stems from the vast amount of data we intend to collect across space and through time With a robust data set calibrating our Bayesian Network models we can investigate how POs vary across space both within a site e g down a depth gradient and across sites e g sites within vs adjacent to OCNMS locations with high vs low sea otter density We can also investigate how POs change through time particularly following pulse perturbation events For example we hypothesize a site with high sea otter density will exhibit consistent POs for kelp species before and one year after a large wave event where kelp hypothetically is removed but then rapidly recovers as sea otter predation prevents the establishment of urchin barrens In contrast we hypothesize a site with low sea otter density will exhibit a longer duration shift in the POs for kelp following perturbation where

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text:
kelp loss is persistent as urchin barrens become established Thus the resilience or lack thereof of these POs over time will provide a quantitative measurement of the resilience of benthic species And by incorporating sea otter densities into these Bayesian Network models we will evaluate the extent to which sea otter abundance distribution and behavior modifies the POs of benthic species and thus we will evaluate how keystone sea otter predation modifies ecological resilience particularly following pulse perturbations events associated with climate change 4 1 Sea otter population dynamics and unexplained patterns of seasonal movement Sea otter habitat is limited to shallow coastal waters from the intertidal to 80 meters Larson Bodkin 2015 Their diet consists largely of benthic invertebrates e g crabs clams urchins and snails Hale et al 2019 Sea otters aggregate to rest in small a few individuals large groups 100 called rafts that make them easy to spot from shore and boat They tend to forage alone have short 2 minutes dive times and consume their prey on the surface These characteristics support direct visual observation by researchers and enable accurate and precise estimates of local population size diet diversity and specialization foraging success caloric intake

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diet changes due to occupation times core versus periphery occupied areas and seasonality and climate shifts Previous research indicates the Washington sea otter population exhibits larger movements 80km not typically observed in other sea otter populations and the driver s of these movements remain unknown Laidre et al 2009 We propose to expand the Seattle Aquarium s ongoing 20 year program assisting with sea otter distribution surveys led by USFWS and WDFW and an 11 year program collecting sea otter foraging observations PI Larson and Co PIs Randell will work with WDFW and USFWS to conduct the range wide annual Washington sea otter survey And via Co PI Jasper and collaborator Jonathan Scordino we also propose to expand the Makah Tribe s regional boat based sea otter distribution and abundance surveys conducted monthly Scordino et al 2017 to determine localized sea otter movements and seasonal shifts in home ranges We also plan to increase the frequency of ongoing sea otter foraging observations in Makah waters from quarterly to monthly by PI Larson and other trained Seattle Aquarium staff particularly in vicinity to the subtidal sites to give us direct observations of local sea otter s preferred prey By capturing benthic

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text:
invertebrate dynamics in areas with and without heavy sea otter use and by pairing those data with sea otter foraging observations we intend to disentangle as much as possible the respective processes structuring benthic invertebrate population dynamics Engagement Plan 5 1 Partner with the Makah Tribe and enhance their ability to survey their waters of U A Coastal areas along the Makah Reservation face challenges such as the invasive European green crab Carcinus maenas the establishment and expansion of urchin barrens and the susceptibility of culturally and ecologically significant species to threats from climate change e g anomalous warm water events and anthropogenic impact e g oil spills To expand the Makah Tribe s capacity to monitor and manage their coastal waters and to build upon the 20 year relationship between the Makah Tribe and the Seattle Aquarium we will provide the Tribe a Blue Robotics Blue2 ROV We will work with the Tribe to develop ROV surveillance protocols for this project and we will assist in developing ROV protocols and data analyses for additional research questions of conservation and management interest to the Tribe Co PIs Jasper and Randell will coordinate ROV surveys data and code sharing and the

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