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percent cover from ROV and diver imagery 3 2 Pair community data with underlying habitat characteristics from existing acoustic imagery to create habitat suitability models for species of management concern Objective 4 4 1 Expand the historical and ongoing sea otter foraging and distribution surveys conducted by the Seattle Aquarium and the Makah to collect finer scale movement patterns home ranges diet preferences and seasonal shifts Engagement Plan 5 1 Partner with the Makah Tribe provide them an ROV ROV training and all associated code and analyses support Makah personnel 5 2 Mentor interns in the Makah Fisheries Management Summer Internship Program and bring Seattle Aquarium Teacher Training Modules to Outer Coast schools 5 3 Host biannual coastal research and conservation meetings at the Seattle Aquarium and in Neah Bay 5 4 Partner with entities to ensure our products aid the management and conservation of reef fish kelp pinto abalone sunflower stars and sea otters Methodology 2000 character limit including spaces Objective 1 1 1 Customize the Seattle Aquarium s new ROV and test it in a variety of environmental conditions and with a variety of different imaging protocols 1 2 NMFS and WDFW will bring their expertise to bear

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text:
in the field to develop standardized methods to monitor kelp forests using imagery acquired by ROV sensors Objective 2 2 1 Deploy pelican buoys on the seafloor to mark subtidal sites Once initiated the Seattle Aquarium will support this project as a long term research program 2 2 Divers will count kelp recruits in situ and survey fixed quadrats to count sea urchin recruits Three Standardized Monitoring Unit for the Recruitment of Fishes SMURFs will be deployed seasonally at each site Objective 3 3 1 Use open source machine learning algorithms e g CoralNet Bayes to derive species abundances mobile and or conspicuous species and percent coverage estimates sessile benthic species from ROV imagery 3 2 Pair community data with existing habitat characteristics to develop habitat suitability models via a Bayesian Network approach Objective 4 4 1 Use boat based visual surveillance to obtain regular sea otter distribution observations to document sea otter densities and to document seasonal shifts in habitat use Use shore based observations to gather monthly data on sea otter foraging activities near index survey sites to pair with benthic invertebrate data collected by divers and the ROV Engagement Plan 5 1 Co PI Jasper will facilitate

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text:
coordination with the Makah on all aspects of this project 5 2 We are coordinating with the Makah and Nicole Harris at OCNMS to ensure our outreach activities build upon existing programs 5 3 The Seattle Aquarium will host biannual meetings that draw upon existing regulatory and oversight entities 5 4 We are collaborating with numerous state federal tribal and non profit entities to ensure our methods and products align with the management needs of coastal Washington Kelp forest complexity connectivity and resilience with and without keystone species along the Olympic Coast Kelp forests of the Olympic Coast and a road map forward This project will investigate kelp forest community complexity connectivity and resilience in the western Strait of Juan de Fuca SJDF and northern region of Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary OCNMS These waters all part of the Makah Tribe s Usual and Accustomed U A grounds are home to numerous species of macroalgae henceforth kelp for brevity invertebrates fishes seabirds and marine mammals This includes species of cultural recreational and commercial interest such as sea cucumbers clams sea urchins rockfish Sebastes spp and lingcod Ophiodon elongatus These waters are also home to threatened species such as the Washington

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text:
State listed pinto abalone Haliotis kamtschatkana Carson et al 2019 and the IUCN listed sunflower star Pycnopodia helianthoides Gravem et al 2020 This area also encompasses numerous marine mammals protected under the Marine Mammal Protection Act such as whales sea lions and a population of Northern sea otters Enhydra lutris kenyoni whose trophic effects as a keystone species are well known Estes Palmisano 1974 Watson Estes 2011 but whose role in ecological resilience remains unclear Rasher et al 2020 Shelton et al 2018 OCNMS encompasses deep reefs though the community structure and degree of connectivity between deeper and nearshore reefs is uncertain Nor is it resolved the extent to which larvae or adults transit the boundaries of the sanctuary to replenish adjacent patches of habitat Understanding species habitat associations and connectivity within and across seascapes such as OCNMS and the western SJDF is crucial for modeling habitat suitability and probabilities of species persistence however the management of these species is challenged by limited available data and the inherent dynamic complexity of nearshore subtidal systems The following text first lays out the ecological functions provided by kelp forests and the challenges they face in a changing climate Next we articulate how

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text:
measuring species habitat associations and kelp sea urchin and reef fish recruitment will enable us to directly assess the patterns of and processes that enable 1 resilient kelp forest persistence and 2 stabilization of the so called urchin barren state where kelp recovery is prevented by urchin overgrazing The key to our approach towards understanding kelp forest resilience resides in measuring community structure species habitat associations and kelp sea urchin and reef fish recruitment across a geographical area overlapping with varying densities of sea otters whose trophic effects are hypothesized to modify ecological resilience This overarching question of kelp forest resilience necessitates longitudinal study thus once initiated the work proposed here will be advanced by the Seattle Aquarium as a long term coastal research and monitoring program With this background in place we propose to 1 1 use a mini remotely operated vehicle ROV to obtain imagery of kelp forests and urchin barrens in order to better understand how environmental conditions and survey parameters affect their spatio temporal distributions To scale these initial tests up towards viable survey protocols we are 1 2 collaborating with partners at NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service NMFS and the Washington Dept of Fish and

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text:
Wildlife WDFW to rigorously evaluate how taxonomic inference varies between ROV and diver imagery classified via machine learning versus traditional SCUBA based observations Once ROV protocols are established and 2 1 in conjunction with partners at OCNMS NMFS and Makah Tribe we will establish a preliminary network of spatially fixed subtidal monitoring stations with five sites offshore of Neah Bay along the western SJDF and another five along the northern portion of OCNMS Benthic community structure will be assessed via a mixture of ROVs and divers and we will also 2 2 use divers to measure kelp sea urchin and reef fish recruitment By placing sites within and outside of areas heavily used by sea otters see 4 1 our analyses see 3 2 will indicate the extent to which sea otter predation modifies the trajectory of kelp forest community dynamics following pulse perturbation events ROV imagery will be interpreted 3 1 via machine learning e g supervised classification to calculate abundances for sessile and mobile kelp invertebrate and fish species and percent coverage estimates for colonial or aggregated benthic species Next 3 2 these community metrics will be paired with existing benthic habitat layers enabling habitat suitability modeling via

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text:
a Bayesian Network approach Owing to the large spatial extent across which the ROV will gather detailed imagery we will create high resolution species specific maps containing 1 Probabilities of Occurrence PO given the underlying habitat characteristics 2 PO uncertainty and 3 experience a metric of the local habitat characteristics relative to the characteristics of the training data These maps will be created so that federal state and tribal partners can incorporate our layers into their existing analytical framework We will also create layers with metrics of kelp sea urchin and rockfish recruitment and over time these data will illustrate the manner in which propagule input responds to environmental drivers and associates with local spatiotemporal community dynamics particularly prior to and following pulse perturbation events We next propose to pair knowledge of benthic community dynamics with 4 1 sea otter distribution and foraging surveys These surveys will expand upon ongoing work conducted quarterly for the past 10 years at 10 sites throughout the sea otter range By incorporating these sea otter data into the habitat suitability modeling from 3 2 we will investigate how sea otter abundance distribution and foraging behavior associate with benthic community dynamics and over time these

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text:
analyses will indicate the extent to which sea otter abundance distribution and behavior modify ecosystem resilience and the Health of Coastal Ecosystems The waters we envision working in offshore of Neah Bay and the Outer Coast are all part of the Makah Tribe s U A thus for our Engagement Plan we have 5 1 partnered with the Makah Tribe on all aspects of this project As a Makah Biologist Co PI Jasper will ensure communication and collaboration with the Tribe Furthermore both Jonathan Scordino Makah Marine Mammal Biologist and a technician working for him will be supported on this project and they will assist with collecting sea otter distribution information To enhance the Tribe s ability to monitor their U A waters we will provide them an ROV and all image analysis code PI Larson and Co PI Randell will 5 2 mentor student interns via the Makah Fisheries Management Summer Internship Program Additionally the Seattle Aquarium will provide Teaching Training Modules to teachers from Outer Coast schools regarding climate change challenges facing coastal ecosystems The Seattle Aquarium will 5 3 regularly host collaborative meetings that will draw upon the expertise of members of the Intergovernmental Policy Council the

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OCNMS Sanctuary Advisory Council and the Washington Coastal Marine Advisory Committee Finally 5 4 by partnering with the Makah Tribe NMFS OCNMS the WDFW the U S Fish and Wildlife Service USFWS and Puget Sound Restoration Fund PSRF our novel ROV imaging and machine learning methods in combination with recruitment measurements and sea otter surveys will gather data that will enhance the conservation and management of key coastal species such as kelp rockfish pinto abalone sunflower stars and the population of Northern sea otters Background Kelp forest functioning challenges of a physical environment and abrupt shifts in state Kelp forests are highly productive and diverse and they provide a myriad of ecological services both at the site of growth and through meta ecosystem connectivity Dayton 1985 Schiel Foster 2015 Steneck et al 2002 Kelp forests provide key biological habitat for numerous invertebrates and fishes and kelp canopy is particularly important habitat for fish larvae especially rockfishes transitioning from the pelagic dispersal phase Carr 1991 Johnson 2006 Kelp exhibit rapid growth that has the potential to sequester significant amounts of carbon Krause Jensen Duarte 2016 Wilmers et al 2012 and detached forms of kelp known as drift algae or wrack provide

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nutrients through meta ecosystem transport to deeper reefs submarine canyons and continental shelves and onto intertidal and terrestrial systems Filbee Dexter et al 2016 Hawes et al 2017 Hinojosa et al 2010 Furthermore these enigmatic forests are cherished by coastal populations and they also have deep cultural significance to Tribes Swan 1855 Kelp forests are subject to both pulse perturbations and slow environmental changes associated with climate change and in the Northeast Pacific the effects of both are accentuated by the extirpation of sea urchin predators that in part control excessive sea urchin grazing of kelp Beas Luna et al 2020 Rogers Bennett Catton 2019 While the life histories of kelp are well suited to regular disturbance from large wave events the increasing frequency and intensity of these events and their correlation with other pulse perturbations such as anomalous warm water events have increased the frequency and magnitude of kelp loss along large stretches of North America These pulse perturbations also occur concomitant with marine disease emergencies such as the 2013 2014 Sea Star Wasting Syndrome SSWS event that devastated over 20 sea star species along the entire north east Pacific Rim Hewson et al 2018 There is an increasing

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awareness that sea stars play an important role consuming sea urchins Burt et al 2018 particularly smaller sea urchin size classes so the loss of these species and the overall loss of sea urchin predators e g sea otters in northern California and Oregon has increased the vulnerability of kelp forests worldwide Krumhansl et al 2016 S D Ling et al 2009 Rasher et al 2020 When sufficiently perturbed kelp forests exhibit abrupt movement Alan Hastings Wysham 2010 to an alternative stable state known as urchin barrens where sea urchin overgrazing limits kelp recovery Filbee Dexter Scheibling 2014 S D Ling et al 2015 Scott D Ling et al 2019 While the precise mechanisms controlling these shifts vary latitudinally generally they are brought about when sea urchins exhibit a switch in behavior going from being tucked away in cracks and crevices and persisting on drift algae to actively wandering grazing and consuming live kelp Harrold Reed 1985 Vanderklift Kendrick 2005 Vanderklift Wernberg 2008 This switch in behavior often manifests following localized disturbance e g following a large wave event that removes both drift algae and live kelp Ebeling et al 1985 However it is often unclear whether the urchin barren

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state is truly a stable alternative or instead is a multiyear period of transient dynamics followed by kelp recovery Fukami Nakajima 2011 Alan Hastings et al 2018 Hillebrand et al 2020 The key to differentiating these two depends upon whether the strength of feedback processes stabilizing the kelp forest state are sufficiently degraded by the perturbation If so and in particular if this occurs across an entire coastline different stabilizing feedback processes may increase in strength and stabilize the urchin barren state For example increased sea urchin grazing reduces kelp cover reducing spore production and increases the cover of encrusting algae that facilitates additional settlement of sea urchin larvae Taniguchi et al 1994 The difference between alternative versus transient urchin barren dynamics is the difference between eventual natural kelp forest recovery versus active restoration efforts being required to cull urchin densities and restore kelp populations Local scale regional scale and pulse perturbation mediated shifts in regulation and state Here we propose to investigate how 1 local heterogeneity such as species abundances and species habitat associations 2 connectivity via measurements of kelp sea urchin and reef fish recruitment and 3 keystone sea otter predation all interact to structure kelp forest dynamics

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