Daily Papers

Since its 2009 genesis block, the Bitcoin network has processed >1.08 billion (B) transactions representing >8.72B BTC, offering rich potential for machine learning (ML); yet, its pseudonymity and obscured flow of funds inherent in its \utxo-based design, have rendered this data largely inaccessible for ML research. Addressing this gap, we present an ML-compatible graph modeling the Bitcoin's economic topology by reconstructing the flow of funds. This temporal, heterogeneous graph encompasses complete transaction history up to block \cutoffHeight, consisting of >2.4B nodes and >39.72B edges. Additionally, we provide custom sampling methods yielding node and edge feature vectors of sampled communities, tools to load and analyze the Bitcoin graph data within specialized graph databases, and ready-to-use database snapshots. This comprehensive dataset and toolkit empower the ML community to tackle Bitcoin's intricate ecosystem at scale, driving progress in applications such as anomaly detection, address classification, market analysis, and large-scale graph ML benchmarking. Dataset and code available at https://github.com/B1AAB/EBA{github.com/b1aab/eba}

Institutional investors have been increasing the allocation of the illiquid alternative assets such as private equity funds in their portfolios, yet there exists a very limited literature on cash flow forecasting of illiquid alternative assets. The net cash flow of private equity funds typically follow a J-curve pattern, however the timing and the size of the contributions and distributions depend on the investment opportunities. In this paper, we develop a benchmark model and present two novel approaches (direct vs. indirect) to predict the cash flows of private equity funds. We introduce a sliding window approach to apply on our cash flow data because different vintage year funds contain different lengths of cash flow information. We then pass the data to an LSTM/ GRU model to predict the future cash flows either directly or indirectly (based on the benchmark model). We further integrate macroeconomic indicators into our data, which allows us to consider the impact of market environment on cash flows and to apply stress testing. Our results indicate that the direct model is easier to implement compared to the benchmark model and the indirect model, but still the predicted cash flows align better with the actual cash flows. We also show that macroeconomic variables improve the performance of the direct model whereas the impact is not obvious on the indirect model.

The development of Machine Learning (ML) methods for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is currently limited by the lack of openly available training data. This paper presents a new open-source dataset comprising of high fidelity, scale-resolving CFD simulations of 500 geometric variations of the Ahmed Car Body - a simplified car-like shape that exhibits many of the flow topologies that are present on bluff bodies such as road vehicles. The dataset contains simulation results that exhibit a broad set of fundamental flow physics such as geometry and pressure-induced flow separation as well as 3D vortical structures. Each variation of the Ahmed car body were run using a high-fidelity, time-accurate, hybrid Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) - Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulence modelling approach using the open-source CFD code OpenFOAM. The dataset contains boundary, volume, geometry, and time-averaged forces/moments in widely used open-source formats. In addition, the OpenFOAM case setup is provided so that others can reproduce or extend the dataset. This represents to the authors knowledge, the first open-source large-scale dataset using high-fidelity CFD methods for the widely used Ahmed car body that is available to freely download with a permissive license (CC-BY-SA).

Normalizing flows provide a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a (usually simple) base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. There has been much recent work on normalizing flows, ranging from improving their expressive power to expanding their application. We believe the field has now matured and is in need of a unified perspective. In this review, we attempt to provide such a perspective by describing flows through the lens of probabilistic modeling and inference. We place special emphasis on the fundamental principles of flow design, and discuss foundational topics such as expressive power and computational trade-offs. We also broaden the conceptual framing of flows by relating them to more general probability transformations. Lastly, we summarize the use of flows for tasks such as generative modeling, approximate inference, and supervised learning.

Large Language Models demonstrate outstanding performance in many language tasks but still face fundamental challenges in managing the non-linear flow of human conversation. The prevalent approach of treating dialogue history as a flat, linear sequence is misaligned with the intrinsically hierarchical and branching structure of natural discourse, leading to inefficient context utilization and a loss of coherence during extended interactions involving topic shifts or instruction refinements. To address this limitation, we introduce Context-Agent, a novel framework that models multi-turn dialogue history as a dynamic tree structure. This approach mirrors the inherent non-linearity of conversation, enabling the model to maintain and navigate multiple dialogue branches corresponding to different topics. Furthermore, to facilitate robust evaluation, we introduce the Non-linear Task Multi-turn Dialogue (NTM) benchmark, specifically designed to assess model performance in long-horizon, non-linear scenarios. Our experiments demonstrate that Context-Agent enhances task completion rates and improves token efficiency across various LLMs, underscoring the value of structured context management for complex, dynamic dialogues. The dataset and code is available at GitHub.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently shown impressive results on diverse code-related tasks, benefiting from large-scale training and instruction tuning. However, studies reveal that their grasp of fundamental programming concepts, such as data flow and control flow, remains shallow, leading to fragile performance when code requires deeper reasoning. This limitation restricts the practical adoption of LLMs in real-world software development. To address this issue, this work introduces a counterfactual code augmentation framework combined with concept-aware tuning, designed to guide LLMs toward stronger conceptual understanding. Comprehensive evaluation across multiple models and benchmarks demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Training expressive flow-based policies with off-policy reinforcement learning is notoriously unstable due to gradient pathologies in the multi-step action sampling process. We trace this instability to a fundamental connection: the flow rollout is algebraically equivalent to a residual recurrent computation, making it susceptible to the same vanishing and exploding gradients as RNNs. To address this, we reparameterize the velocity network using principles from modern sequential models, introducing two stable architectures: Flow-G, which incorporates a gated velocity, and Flow-T, which utilizes a decoded velocity. We then develop a practical SAC-based algorithm, enabled by a noise-augmented rollout, that facilitates direct end-to-end training of these policies. Our approach supports both from-scratch and offline-to-online learning and achieves state-of-the-art performance on continuous control and robotic manipulation benchmarks, eliminating the need for common workarounds like policy distillation or surrogate objectives.

Language models based on discrete diffusion have attracted widespread interest for their potential to provide faster generation than autoregressive models. In practice, however, they exhibit a sharp degradation of sample quality in the few-step regime, failing to realize this promise. Here we show that language models leveraging flow-based continuous denoising can outperform discrete diffusion in both quality and speed. By revisiting the fundamentals of flows over discrete modalities, we build a flow-based language model (FLM) that performs Euclidean denoising over one-hot token encodings. We show that the model can be trained by predicting the clean data via a cross entropy objective, where we introduce a simple time reparameterization that greatly improves training stability and generation quality. By distilling FLM into its associated flow map, we obtain a distilled flow map language model (FMLM) capable of few-step generation. On the LM1B and OWT language datasets, FLM attains generation quality matching state-of-the-art discrete diffusion models. With FMLM, our approach outperforms recent few-step language models across the board, with one-step generation exceeding their 8-step quality. Our work calls into question the widely held hypothesis that discrete diffusion processes are necessary for generative modeling over discrete modalities, and paves the way toward accelerated flow-based language modeling at scale. Code is available at https://github.com/david3684/flm.

Vision offers a critical axis for advancing foundation models, driving a shift towards natively unified multimodal pretraining. Despite this momentum, the design space and the fundamental mechanisms of how modalities interact during unified training remain underexplored. We provide empirical clarity through a systematic exploration of multimodal pretraining. Our controlled experiments on both synthetic and large-scale real-world datasets yield four key insights into the physics of multimodal pretraining: (i) Knowledge Flow: We disentangle how language, visual understanding, and visual generation transfer knowledge across modalities, revealing distinct patterns of influence and asymmetry; (ii) Synergy vs. Competition: We show that data "complexity" largely determines whether modalities are synergistic, identify architectural choices that promote synergy: such as shared attention and normalization with modality-specific feed-forward layers, and find that these behaviors generalize across different visual tokenizer designs; (iii) Early Unification: Unifying modalities from the very early stages and training them jointly is shown to be more effective than late alignment or sequential training. This process uncovers a vision laziness phenomenon, where delayed integration leads models to rely on language priors; (iv) Recipes: We derive efficient pretraining recipes that achieve strong generative performance using only 5% of the compute budget. These core findings are subsequently validated at scale by training multiple 13.5B MoE models on 2T tokens. We hope this study provides a principled foundation for understanding and scaling multimodal pretraining.

Inferring spatial transcriptomics (ST) from histology enables scalable histogenomic profiling, yet current methods are largely restricted to single-tissue models. This fragmentation fails to leverage biological principles shared across cancer types and hinders application to data-scarce scenarios. While pan-cancer training offers a solution, the resulting heterogeneity challenges monolithic architectures. To bridge this gap, we introduce MoLF (Mixture-of-Latent-Flow), a generative model for pan-cancer histogenomic prediction. MoLF leverages a conditional Flow Matching objective to map noise to the gene latent manifold, parameterized by a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) velocity field. By dynamically routing inputs to specialized sub-networks, this architecture effectively decouples the optimization of diverse tissue patterns. Our experiments demonstrate that MoLF establishes a new state-of-the-art, consistently outperforming both specialized and foundation model baselines on pan-cancer benchmarks. Furthermore, MoLF exhibits zero-shot generalization to cross-species data, suggesting it captures fundamental, conserved histo-molecular mechanisms.

Flow matching retains the generation quality of diffusion models while enabling substantially faster inference, making it a compelling paradigm for generative modeling. However, when applied to language modeling, it exhibits fundamental limitations in representing complex latent distributions with irregular geometries, such as anisotropy and multimodality. To address these challenges, we propose a mixture-of-experts flow matching (MoE-FM) framework, which captures complex global transport geometries in latent space by decomposing them into locally specialized vector fields. Building on MoE-FM, we develop a non-autoregressive (NAR) language modeling approach, named YAN, instantiated with both Transformer and Mamba architectures. Across multiple downstream tasks, YAN achieves generation quality on par with both autoregressive (AR) and diffusion-based NAR language models, while requiring as few as three sampling steps. This yields a 40times speedup over AR baselines and up to a 10^3times speedup over diffusion language models, demonstrating substantial efficiency advantages for language modeling.

State-of-the-art flow models achieve remarkable quality but require slow, iterative sampling. To accelerate this, flow maps can be distilled from pre-trained teachers, a procedure that conventionally requires sampling from an external dataset. We argue that this data-dependency introduces a fundamental risk of Teacher-Data Mismatch, as a static dataset may provide an incomplete or even misaligned representation of the teacher's full generative capabilities. This leads us to question whether this reliance on data is truly necessary for successful flow map distillation. In this work, we explore a data-free alternative that samples only from the prior distribution, a distribution the teacher is guaranteed to follow by construction, thereby circumventing the mismatch risk entirely. To demonstrate the practical viability of this philosophy, we introduce a principled framework that learns to predict the teacher's sampling path while actively correcting for its own compounding errors to ensure high fidelity. Our approach surpasses all data-based counterparts and establishes a new state-of-the-art by a significant margin. Specifically, distilling from SiT-XL/2+REPA, our method reaches an impressive FID of 1.45 on ImageNet 256x256, and 1.49 on ImageNet 512x512, both with only 1 sampling step. We hope our work establishes a more robust paradigm for accelerating generative models and motivates the broader adoption of flow map distillation without data.

The estimation of optical flow and 6-DoF ego-motion, two fundamental tasks in 3D vision, has typically been addressed independently. For neuromorphic vision (e.g., event cameras), however, the lack of robust data association makes solving the two problems separately an ill-posed challenge, especially in the absence of supervision via ground truth. Existing works mitigate this ill-posedness by either enforcing the smoothness of the flow field via an explicit variational regularizer or leveraging explicit structure-and-motion priors in the parametrization to improve event alignment. The former notably introduces bias in results and computational overhead, while the latter, which parametrizes the optical flow in terms of the scene depth and the camera motion, often converges to suboptimal local minima. To address these issues, we propose an unsupervised framework that jointly optimizes egomotion and optical flow via implicit spatial-temporal and geometric regularization. First, by modeling camera's egomotion as a continuous spline and optical flow as an implicit neural representation, our method inherently embeds spatial-temporal coherence through inductive biases. Second, we incorporate structure-and-motion priors through differential geometric constraints, bypassing explicit depth estimation while maintaining rigorous geometric consistency. As a result, our framework (called E-MoFlow) unifies egomotion and optical flow estimation via implicit regularization under a fully unsupervised paradigm. Experiments demonstrate its versatility to general 6-DoF motion scenarios, achieving state-of-the-art performance among unsupervised methods and competitive even with supervised approaches.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has demonstrated remarkable success in aligning text-to-image (T2I) flow models with human preferences. However, we have identified that the learning loop of current flow-based GRPO is fundamentally decoupled from the learner's current capability, suffering from critical blind spots at both prompt selection and advantage estimation: (i) Existing methods sample prompts randomly, overlooking the substantial impact of data selection on reinforcement learning (RL) efficacy--a factor proven crucial in GRPO for large language models; (ii) They evaluate sample quality solely relying on intra-group statistics, lacking a global perspective to accurately measure true policy improvement. To address these issues, we propose Adaptive GRPO (AdaGRPO), a novel capability-aware RL algorithm tailored for flow models. Specifically, AdaGRPO consists of two principal components: (i) Online Curriculum Filtering Strategy: Dynamically tracks the model's proficiency and adaptively selects prompts that best match its current learning boundary; (ii) Cross-Level Advantage Fusion: Synergistically integrates fine-grained intra-group advantages with macro-level global advantages, providing a comprehensive and unbiased policy evaluation. As a lightweight, plug-and-play module, AdaGRPO can be seamlessly integrated with existing frameworks such as Flow-GRPO, DanceGRPO, and Flow-CPS. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AdaGRPO consistently drives performance gains while significantly stabilizes GRPO training for flow models.

We introduce Hibiki, a decoder-only model for simultaneous speech translation. Hibiki leverages a multistream language model to synchronously process source and target speech, and jointly produces text and audio tokens to perform speech-to-text and speech-to-speech translation. We furthermore address the fundamental challenge of simultaneous interpretation, which unlike its consecutive counterpart, where one waits for the end of the source utterance to start translating, adapts its flow to accumulate just enough context to produce a correct translation in real-time, chunk by chunk. To do so, we introduce a weakly-supervised method that leverages the perplexity of an off-the-shelf text translation system to identify optimal delays on a per-word basis and create aligned synthetic data. After supervised training, Hibiki performs adaptive, simultaneous speech translation with vanilla temperature sampling. On a French-English simultaneous speech translation task, Hibiki demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in translation quality, speaker fidelity and naturalness. Moreover, the simplicity of its inference process makes it compatible with batched translation and even real-time on-device deployment. We provide examples as well as models and inference code.

In robot manipulation, robot learning has become a prevailing approach. However, generative models within this field face a fundamental trade-off between the slow, iterative sampling of diffusion models and the architectural constraints of faster Flow-based methods, which often rely on explicit consistency losses. To address these limitations, we introduce MP1, which pairs 3D point-cloud inputs with the MeanFlow paradigm to generate action trajectories in one network function evaluation (1-NFE). By directly learning the interval-averaged velocity via the "MeanFlow Identity", our policy avoids any additional consistency constraints. This formulation eliminates numerical ODE-solver errors during inference, yielding more precise trajectories. MP1 further incorporates CFG for improved trajectory controllability while retaining 1-NFE inference without reintroducing structural constraints. Because subtle scene-context variations are critical for robot learning, especially in few-shot learning, we introduce a lightweight Dispersive Loss that repels state embeddings during training, boosting generalization without slowing inference. We validate our method on the Adroit and Meta-World benchmarks, as well as in real-world scenarios. Experimental results show MP1 achieves superior average task success rates, outperforming DP3 by 10.2% and FlowPolicy by 7.3%. Its average inference time is only 6.8 ms-19x faster than DP3 and nearly 2x faster than FlowPolicy. Our code is available at https://github.com/LogSSim/MP1.git.

Currently, high-dimensional data is ubiquitous in data science, which necessitates the development of techniques to decompose and interpret such multidimensional (aka tensor) datasets. Finding a low dimensional representation of the data, that is, its inherent structure, is one of the approaches that can serve to understand the dynamics of low dimensional latent features hidden in the data. Nonnegative RESCAL is one such technique, particularly well suited to analyze self-relational data, such as dynamic networks found in international trade flows. Nonnegative RESCAL computes a low dimensional tensor representation by finding the latent space containing multiple modalities. Estimating the dimensionality of this latent space is crucial for extracting meaningful latent features. Here, to determine the dimensionality of the latent space with nonnegative RESCAL, we propose a latent dimension determination method which is based on clustering of the solutions of multiple realizations of nonnegative RESCAL decompositions. We demonstrate the performance of our model selection method on synthetic data and then we apply our method to decompose a network of international trade flows data from International Monetary Fund and validate the resulting features against empirical facts from economic literature.

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences is critical, yet traditional fine-tuning methods are computationally expensive and inflexible. While test-time alignment offers a promising alternative, existing approaches often rely on distorted trajectory-level signals or inefficient sampling, fundamentally capping performance and failing to preserve the generative diversity of the base model. This paper introduces LLMdoctor, a novel framework for efficient test-time alignment that operates via a patient-doctor paradigm. It integrates token-level reward acquisition with token-level flow-guided preference optimization (TFPO) to steer a large, frozen patient LLM with a smaller, specialized doctor model. Unlike conventional methods that rely on trajectory-level rewards, LLMdoctor first extracts fine-grained, token-level preference signals from the patient model's behavioral variations. These signals then guide the training of the doctor model via TFPO, which establishes flow consistency across all subtrajectories, enabling precise token-by-token alignment while inherently preserving generation diversity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LLMdoctor significantly outperforms existing test-time alignment methods and even surpasses the performance of full fine-tuning approaches like DPO.

Autoregressive (AR) models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in text and image generation but suffer from slow generation due to the token-by-token process. We ask an ambitious question: can a pre-trained AR model be adapted to generate outputs in just one or two steps? If successful, this would significantly advance the development and deployment of AR models. We notice that existing works that try to speed up AR generation by generating multiple tokens at once fundamentally cannot capture the output distribution due to the conditional dependencies between tokens, limiting their effectiveness for few-step generation. To address this, we propose Distilled Decoding (DD), which uses flow matching to create a deterministic mapping from Gaussian distribution to the output distribution of the pre-trained AR model. We then train a network to distill this mapping, enabling few-step generation. DD doesn't need the training data of the original AR model, making it more practical.We evaluate DD on state-of-the-art image AR models and present promising results on ImageNet-256. For VAR, which requires 10-step generation, DD enables one-step generation (6.3times speed-up), with an acceptable increase in FID from 4.19 to 9.96. For LlamaGen, DD reduces generation from 256 steps to 1, achieving an 217.8times speed-up with a comparable FID increase from 4.11 to 11.35. In both cases, baseline methods completely fail with FID>100. DD also excels on text-to-image generation, reducing the generation from 256 steps to 2 for LlamaGen with minimal FID increase from 25.70 to 28.95. As the first work to demonstrate the possibility of one-step generation for image AR models, DD challenges the prevailing notion that AR models are inherently slow, and opens up new opportunities for efficient AR generation. The project website is at https://imagination-research.github.io/distilled-decoding.

Machine learning (ML) offers transformative potential for computational fluid dynamics (CFD), promising to accelerate simulations, improve turbulence modelling, and enable real-time flow prediction and control-capabilities that could fundamentally change how engineers approach fluid dynamics problems. However, the exploration of ML in fluid dynamics is critically hampered by the scarcity of large, diverse, and high-fidelity datasets suitable for training robust models. This limitation is particularly acute for highly turbulent flows, which dominate practical engineering applications yet remain computationally prohibitive to simulate at scale. High-Reynolds number turbulent datasets are essential for ML models to learn the complex, multi-scale physics characteristic of real-world flows, enabling generalisation beyond the simplified, low-Reynolds number regimes often represented in existing datasets. This paper introduces WAKESET, a novel, large-scale CFD dataset of highly turbulent flows, designed to address this critical gap. The dataset captures the complex hydrodynamic interactions during the underwater recovery of an autonomous underwater vehicle by a larger extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicle. It comprises 1,091 high-fidelity Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, augmented to 4,364 instances, covering a wide operational envelope of speeds (up to Reynolds numbers of 1.09 x 10^8) and turning angles. This work details the motivation for this new dataset by reviewing existing resources, outlines the hydrodynamic modelling and validation underpinning its creation, and describes its structure. The dataset's focus on a practical engineering problem, its scale, and its high turbulence characteristics make it a valuable resource for developing and benchmarking ML models for flow field prediction, surrogate modelling, and autonomous navigation in complex underwater environments.

Diffusion models have revolutionized generative tasks through high-fidelity outputs, yet flow matching (FM) offers faster inference and empirical performance gains. However, current foundation FM models are computationally prohibitive for finetuning, while diffusion models like Stable Diffusion benefit from efficient architectures and ecosystem support. This work addresses the critical challenge of efficiently transferring knowledge from pre-trained diffusion models to flow matching. We propose Diff2Flow, a novel framework that systematically bridges diffusion and FM paradigms by rescaling timesteps, aligning interpolants, and deriving FM-compatible velocity fields from diffusion predictions. This alignment enables direct and efficient FM finetuning of diffusion priors with no extra computation overhead. Our experiments demonstrate that Diff2Flow outperforms na\"ive FM and diffusion finetuning particularly under parameter-efficient constraints, while achieving superior or competitive performance across diverse downstream tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods. We will release our code at https://github.com/CompVis/diff2flow.

Local graph clustering methods aim to detect small clusters in very large graphs without the need to process the whole graph. They are fundamental and scalable tools for a wide range of tasks such as local community detection, node ranking and node embedding. While prior work on local graph clustering mainly focuses on graphs without node attributes, modern real-world graph datasets typically come with node attributes that provide valuable additional information. We present a simple local graph clustering algorithm for graphs with node attributes, based on the idea of diffusing mass locally in the graph while accounting for both structural and attribute proximities. Using high-dimensional concentration results, we provide statistical guarantees on the performance of the algorithm for the recovery of a target cluster with a single seed node. We give conditions under which a target cluster generated from a fairly general contextual random graph model, which includes both the stochastic block model and the planted cluster model as special cases, can be fully recovered with bounded false positives. Empirically, we validate all theoretical claims using synthetic data, and we show that incorporating node attributes leads to superior local clustering performances using real-world graph datasets.

The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) on edge devices is fundamentally constrained by the "Memory Wall" -- a hardware limitation where memory bandwidth, not compute, becomes the bottleneck. Recent 1.58-bit quantization techniques (e.g., BitNet b1.58) dramatically reduce memory footprint but typically incur a perplexity degradation of 20-25% compared to FP16 baselines. In this work, we introduce Hybrid Gated Flow (HGF), a dual-stream architecture that couples a 1.58-bit ternary backbone with a learnable, low-rank FP16 correction path controlled by adaptive gates. Through extensive experiments on the TinyStories dataset across two training regimes (2500 and 3500 steps), we demonstrate that HGF 5.4 achieves a validation loss of 0.9306 compared to BitNet's 1.0294, recovering approximately 55% of the quality gap between pure ternary quantization and the FP16 baseline (0.8490). This recovery is achieved with only ~12-15% memory overhead beyond the ternary backbone. Furthermore, we provide empirical evidence for an emergent phenomenon: quantization as structural regularization. While a full-precision differential attention baseline (Diff_Only) exhibited training instability with validation loss exceeding 1.68, the ternary-anchored HGF maintained robust convergence throughout training. Finally, we report preliminary results extending this architecture to 1.2B and 3B parameter models trained on SlimPajama and FineWeb-Edu. These larger-scale experiments confirm that the architectural stability and quality recovery observed in small-scale proxies scale linearly to production-grade language modeling regimes.

The design of protein sequences with desired functionalities is a fundamental task in protein engineering. Deep generative methods, such as autoregressive models and diffusion models, have greatly accelerated the discovery of novel protein sequences. However, these methods mainly focus on local or shallow residual semantics and suffer from low inference efficiency, large modeling space and high training cost. To address these challenges, we introduce ProtFlow, a fast flow matching-based protein sequence design framework that operates on embeddings derived from semantically meaningful latent space of protein language models. By compressing and smoothing the latent space, ProtFlow enhances performance while training on limited computational resources. Leveraging reflow techniques, ProtFlow enables high-quality single-step sequence generation. Additionally, we develop a joint design pipeline for the design scene of multichain proteins. We evaluate ProtFlow across diverse protein design tasks, including general peptides and long-chain proteins, antimicrobial peptides, and antibodies. Experimental results demonstrate that ProtFlow outperforms task-specific methods in these applications, underscoring its potential and broad applicability in computational protein sequence design and analysis.

Matching objectives underpin the success of modern generative models and rely on constructing conditional paths that transform a source distribution into a target distribution. Despite being a fundamental building block, conditional paths have been designed principally under the assumption of Euclidean geometry, resulting in straight interpolations. However, this can be particularly restrictive for tasks such as trajectory inference, where straight paths might lie outside the data manifold, thus failing to capture the underlying dynamics giving rise to the observed marginals. In this paper, we propose Metric Flow Matching (MFM), a novel simulation-free framework for conditional flow matching where interpolants are approximate geodesics learned by minimizing the kinetic energy of a data-induced Riemannian metric. This way, the generative model matches vector fields on the data manifold, which corresponds to lower uncertainty and more meaningful interpolations. We prescribe general metrics to instantiate MFM, independent of the task, and test it on a suite of challenging problems including LiDAR navigation, unpaired image translation, and modeling cellular dynamics. We observe that MFM outperforms the Euclidean baselines, particularly achieving SOTA on single-cell trajectory prediction.

Recovering world space 4D motion of two interacting hands from egocentric video is a fundamental capability for supervising robot policy learning, where wrist trajectories track the end-effector and finger articulations specify the grasp pose. Two major challenges arise in this setting: hands frequently leave the camera view for extended periods due to head motion, and persistent hand-object interactions cause severe occlusions of one or both hands. Existing methods uniformly condition on noisy hand motion observations without accounting for their per-frame reliability, leading to substantial performance degradation. Our key insight is that accurate world space hand motion estimation is tightly coupled with the quality of per-frame hand observations. To this end, we decompose the quality of hand motion observations extracted from an off-the-shelf hand pose estimator into four channels: wrist global translation and finger articulations for both hands. We propose StableHand, a quality-aware flow-matching framework conditioned on these four-channel quality signals, which are predicted by a learned quality network. We naturally incorporate the quality signals into the flow-matching process through a per-channel forward schedule, a quality-adjusted velocity target, AdaLN modulation of the DiT denoiser, and a quality-aware ODE initialization. This unified generative process preserves high-quality observations while reconstructing unreliable ones using a learned bimanual motion prior. Experiments on HOT3D and ARCTIC, two egocentric benchmarks featuring long missing-hand spans and persistent hand-object occlusions, show that StableHand achieves state-of-the-art performance across all reported metrics, reducing W-MPJPE by 20-25% compared to the strongest baseline, with the largest gains on heavily occluded ARCTIC sequences.

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in general visual understanding, they frequently falter in fine-grained perception tasks that require identifying tiny objects or discerning subtle visual relationships. We attribute this limitation to Visual Attenuation: a phenomenon where sparse fine-grained visual signals are prematurely suppressed or diluted by dominant textual tokens during network propagation, resulting in a "loss of focus" during the deep-level decision-making process. Existing input-centric solutions fail to fundamentally reverse this intrinsic mechanism of information loss. To address this challenge, we propose the Variational Information Flow (VIF) framework. Adopting a probabilistic perspective, VIF leverages a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) to model the visual saliency relevant to the question-answer pair as a latent distribution. As a plug-and-play module, VIF can be integrated into existing architectures. Extensive evaluations across diverse benchmarks, covering General VQA, fine-grained perception, and visual grounding, demonstrate that VIF yields competitive improvements over previous methods, validating its effectiveness in enhancing the fine-grained perception of MLLMs.

Central to our understanding of chemical reactivity is the principle of mass conservation, which is fundamental for ensuring physical consistency, balancing equations, and guiding reaction design. However, data-driven computational models for tasks such as reaction product prediction rarely abide by this most basic constraint. In this work, we recast the problem of reaction prediction as a problem of electron redistribution using the modern deep generative framework of flow matching. Our model, FlowER, overcomes limitations inherent in previous approaches by enforcing exact mass conservation, thereby resolving hallucinatory failure modes, recovering mechanistic reaction sequences for unseen substrate scaffolds, and generalizing effectively to out-of-domain reaction classes with extremely data-efficient fine-tuning. FlowER additionally enables estimation of thermodynamic or kinetic feasibility and manifests a degree of chemical intuition in reaction prediction tasks. This inherently interpretable framework represents a significant step in bridging the gap between predictive accuracy and mechanistic understanding in data-driven reaction outcome prediction.

Crystalline materials are a fundamental component in next-generation technologies, yet modeling their distribution presents unique computational challenges. Of the plausible arrangements of atoms in a periodic lattice only a vanishingly small percentage are thermodynamically stable, which is a key indicator of the materials that can be experimentally realized. Two fundamental tasks in this area are to (a) predict the stable crystal structure of a known composition of elements and (b) propose novel compositions along with their stable structures. We present FlowMM, a pair of generative models that achieve state-of-the-art performance on both tasks while being more efficient and more flexible than competing methods. We generalize Riemannian Flow Matching to suit the symmetries inherent to crystals: translation, rotation, permutation, and periodic boundary conditions. Our framework enables the freedom to choose the flow base distributions, drastically simplifying the problem of learning crystal structures compared with diffusion models. In addition to standard benchmarks, we validate FlowMM's generated structures with quantum chemistry calculations, demonstrating that it is about 3x more efficient, in terms of integration steps, at finding stable materials compared to previous open methods.

Multi-turn instruction following capability constitutes a core competency of large language models (LLMs) in real-world applications. Existing evaluation benchmarks predominantly focus on fine-grained constraint satisfaction and domain-specific capability assessment, yet overlook the crucial structural dependency between dialogue turns that distinguishes multi-turn from single-turn interactions. This structural dependency not only reflects user intent but also establishes a second dimension for instruction following evaluation beyond constraint satisfaction. To address this gap, we propose StructFlowBench, a multi-turn instruction following benchmark with structural flow modeling. The benchmark innovatively defines a structural flow framework comprising six fundamental inter-turn relationships, which not only introduces novel structural constraints for model evaluation but also serves as generation parameters for creating customized dialogue flows tailored to specific scenarios. Adopting established LLM-based automatic evaluation methodologies, we conduct systematic evaluations of 13 leading open-source and closed-source LLMs. Experimental results reveal significant deficiencies in current models' comprehension of multi-turn dialogue structures. The code is available at https://github.com/MLGroupJLU/StructFlowBench.

Traffic forecasting is a fundamental task in transportation research, however the scope of current research has mainly focused on a single data modality of loop detectors. Recently, the advances in Artificial Intelligence and drone technologies have made possible novel solutions for efficient, accurate and flexible aerial observations of urban traffic. As a promising traffic monitoring approach, drone-captured data can create an accurate multi-sensor mobility observatory for large-scale urban networks, when combined with existing infrastructure. Therefore, this paper investigates the problem of multi-source traffic speed prediction, simultaneously using drone and loop detector data. A simple yet effective graph-based model HiMSNet is proposed to integrate multiple data modalities and learn spatio-temporal correlations. Detailed analysis shows that predicting accurate segment-level speed is more challenging than the regional speed, especially under high-demand scenarios with heavier congestions and varying traffic dynamics. Utilizing both drone and loop detector data, the prediction accuracy can be improved compared to single-modality cases, when the sensors have lower coverages and are subject to noise. Our simulation study based on vehicle trajectories in a real urban road network has highlighted the added value of integrating drones in traffic forecasting and monitoring.

Optical flow estimation is a fundamental problem in computer vision, yet the reliance on expensive ground-truth annotations limits the scalability of supervised approaches. Although unsupervised and semi-supervised methods alleviate this issue, they often suffer from unreliable supervision signals based on brightness constancy and smoothness assumptions, leading to inaccurate motion estimation in complex real-world scenarios. To overcome these limitations, we introduce \modelname, a novel framework that synthesizes large-scale, perfectly aligned frame--flow data pairs for supervised optical flow training without human annotations. Specifically, our method leverages a pre-trained depth estimation network to generate pseudo optical flows, which serve as conditioning inputs for a next-frame generation model trained to produce high-fidelity, pixel-aligned subsequent frames. This process enables the creation of abundant, high-quality synthetic data with precise motion correspondence. Furthermore, we propose an inconsistent pixel filtering strategy that identifies and removes unreliable pixels in generated frames, effectively enhancing fine-tuning performance on real-world datasets. Extensive experiments on KITTI2012, KITTI2015, and Sintel demonstrate that \modelname achieves competitive or superior results compared to existing unsupervised and semi-supervised approaches, highlighting its potential as a scalable and annotation-free solution for optical flow learning. We will release our code upon acceptance.

We tackle the problem of sampling from intractable high-dimensional density functions, a fundamental task that often appears in machine learning and statistics. We extend recent sampling-based approaches that leverage controlled stochastic processes to model approximate samples from these target densities. The main drawback of these approaches is that the training objective requires full trajectories to compute, resulting in sluggish credit assignment issues due to use of entire trajectories and a learning signal present only at the terminal time. In this work, we present Diffusion Generative Flow Samplers (DGFS), a sampling-based framework where the learning process can be tractably broken down into short partial trajectory segments, via parameterizing an additional "flow function". Our method takes inspiration from the theory developed for generative flow networks (GFlowNets), allowing us to make use of intermediate learning signals. Through various challenging experiments, we demonstrate that DGFS achieves more accurate estimates of the normalization constant than closely-related prior methods.

Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) is a fundamental problem in robotics that asks us to compute collision-free paths for a team of agents, all moving across a shared map. Although many works appear on this topic, all current algorithms struggle as the number of agents grows. The principal reason is that existing approaches typically plan free-flow optimal paths, which creates congestion. To tackle this issue, we propose a new approach for MAPF where agents are guided to their destination by following congestion-avoiding paths. We evaluate the idea in two large-scale settings: one-shot MAPF, where each agent has a single destination, and lifelong MAPF, where agents are continuously assigned new destinations. Empirically, we report large improvements in solution quality for one-short MAPF and in overall throughput for lifelong MAPF.

Recent advances in flow-based offline reinforcement learning (RL) have achieved strong performance by parameterizing policies via flow matching. However, they still face critical trade-offs among expressiveness, optimality, and efficiency. In particular, existing flow policies interpret the L_2 regularization as an upper bound of the 2-Wasserstein distance (W_2), which can be problematic in offline settings. This issue stems from a fundamental geometric mismatch: the behavioral policy manifold is inherently anisotropic, whereas the L_2 (or upper bound of W_2) regularization is isotropic and density-insensitive, leading to systematically misaligned optimization directions. To address this, we revisit offline RL from a geometric perspective and show that policy refinement can be formulated as a local transport map: an initial flow policy augmented by a residual displacement. By analyzing the induced density transformation, we derive a local quadratic approximation of the KL-constrained objective governed by the Fisher information matrix, enabling a tractable anisotropic optimization formulation. By leveraging the score function embedded in the flow velocity, we obtain a corresponding quadratic constraint for efficient optimization. Our results reveal that the optimality gap in prior methods arises from their isotropic approximation. In contrast, our framework achieves a controllable approximation error within a provable neighborhood of the optimal solution. Extensive experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance across diverse offline RL benchmarks. See project page: https://github.com/ARC0127/Fisher-Decorator.

SAR-to-EO image translation aims to generate electro-optical (EO) imagery from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. Existing latent diffusion approaches typically inherit a predetermined autoencoder, although reconstruction fidelity can vary substantially across codecs and modalities. Because the latent codec affects the round-trip preservation of both SAR conditions and EO targets, codec selection constitutes a fundamental design choice; nevertheless, existing methods largely rely on codecs pretrained on natural images. To remedy this, we introduce ReFlowSET, a conditional latent flow-matching framework that selects its codec through a joint SAR--EO reconstruction audit. Rather than inheriting a heavyweight pretrained generator, ReFlowSET trains a substantially smaller conditional DiT from scratch in the selected latent space, using dual-stream SAR conditioning followed by joint feature refinement. To provide semantic guidance for this from-scratch training, intermediate noisy-EO features are aligned with clean target-EO representations extracted by a frozen vision foundation model. This alignment is used only during training and introduces no additional inference cost. Experiments on QXS-SAROPT and SAR2Opt demonstrate state-of-the-art performance across diverse perceptual fidelity and distributional metrics. Code and pretrained weights are publicly available at https://github.com/KAIST-VICLab/ReFlowSET.

The emergent collective motion of active agents - in particular pedestrians - at a three-way intersection is studied by Langevin simulations of cognitive intelligent active Brownian particles (iABPs) with directed visual perception and self-steering avoidance. Depending on the maneuverability Omega, the goal fixation K, and the vision angle psi, different types of pedestrian motion emerge. At intermediate relative maneuverability Delta = Omega/K and large psi, pedestrians have noisy trajectories due to multiple scattering events as they encounter other pedestrians in their field of view. For psi = pi and large relative maneuverability Delta, an effectively jammed state is found, which belongs to the percolation universality class. For small psi, agents exhibit localised clustering and flocking, while for intermediate psi self-organized rotational flows can emerge. The analysis of mean squared displacement and velocity auto-correlation of the agents reveals that the motion is well described by fractional Brownian Motion with positively correlated noise. Finally, despite the rich variety of collective behaviour, the fundamental flow diagram for the three-way-crossing setup shows a universal curve for the different vision angles. Our research provides valuable insights into the importance of vision angle and self-steering avoidance on pedestrian dynamics in semi-dense crowds.

Novel machine learning methods for tabular data generation are often developed on small datasets which do not match the scale required for scientific applications. We investigate a recent proposal to use XGBoost as the function approximator in diffusion and flow-matching models on tabular data, which proved to be extremely memory intensive, even on tiny datasets. In this work, we conduct a critical analysis of the existing implementation from an engineering perspective, and show that these limitations are not fundamental to the method; with better implementation it can be scaled to datasets 370x larger than previously used. Our efficient implementation also unlocks scaling models to much larger sizes which we show directly leads to improved performance on benchmark tasks. We also propose algorithmic improvements that can further benefit resource usage and model performance, including multi-output trees which are well-suited to generative modeling. Finally, we present results on large-scale scientific datasets derived from experimental particle physics as part of the Fast Calorimeter Simulation Challenge. Code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/calo-forest.

We present a novel geometric perspective on the latent space of diffusion models. We first show that the standard pullback approach, utilizing the deterministic probability flow ODE decoder, is fundamentally flawed. It provably forces geodesics to decode as straight segments in data space, effectively ignoring any intrinsic data geometry beyond the ambient Euclidean space. Complementing this view, diffusion also admits a stochastic decoder via the reverse SDE, which enables an information geometric treatment with the Fisher-Rao metric. However, a choice of x_T as the latent representation collapses this metric due to memorylessness. We address this by introducing a latent spacetime z=(x_t,t) that indexes the family of denoising distributions p(x_0 | x_t) across all noise scales, yielding a nontrivial geometric structure. We prove these distributions form an exponential family and derive simulation-free estimators for curve lengths, enabling efficient geodesic computation. The resulting structure induces a principled Diffusion Edit Distance, where geodesics trace minimal sequences of noise and denoise edits between data. We also demonstrate benefits for transition path sampling in molecular systems, including constrained variants such as low-variance transitions and region avoidance. Code is available at: https://github.com/rafalkarczewski/spacetime-geometry.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) excel at multimodal understanding but suffer from high computational costs due to redundant vision tokens. Existing pruning methods typically rely on single-layer attention scores to rank and prune redundant visual tokens to solve this inefficiency. However, as the interaction between tokens and layers is complicated, this raises a basic question: Is such a simple single-layer criterion sufficient to identify redundancy? To answer this question, we rethink the emergence of redundant visual tokens from a fundamental perspective: information flow, which models the interaction between tokens and layers by capturing how information moves between tokens across layers. We find (1) the CLS token acts as an information relay, which can simplify the complicated flow analysis; (2) the redundancy emerges progressively and dynamically via layer-wise attention concentration; and (3) relying solely on attention scores from single layers can lead to contradictory redundancy identification. Based on this, we propose FlowCut, an information-flow-aware pruning framework, mitigating the insufficiency of the current criterion for identifying redundant tokens and better aligning with the model's inherent behaviors. Extensive experiments show that FlowCut achieves superior results, outperforming SoTA by 1.6% on LLaVA-1.5-7B with 88.9% token reduction, and by 4.3% on LLaVA-NeXT-7B with 94.4% reduction, delivering 3.2x speed-up in the prefilling stage. Our code is available at https://github.com/TungChintao/FlowCut

In this paper, we present a vocoder-free framework for audio super-resolution that employs a flow matching generative model to capture the conditional distribution of complex-valued spectral coefficients. Unlike conventional two-stage diffusion-based approaches that predict a mel-spectrogram and then rely on a pre-trained neural vocoder to synthesize waveforms, our method directly reconstructs waveforms via the inverse Short-Time Fourier Transform (iSTFT), thereby eliminating the dependence on a separate vocoder. This design not only simplifies end-to-end optimization but also overcomes a critical bottleneck of two-stage pipelines, where the final audio quality is fundamentally constrained by vocoder performance. Experiments show that our model consistently produces high-fidelity 48 kHz audio across diverse upsampling factors, achieving state-of-the-art performance on both speech and general audio datasets.

Most existing Large Language Model (LLM)-based Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) rely on predefined workflows, where human engineers enumerate task states in advance and specify routing rules and contextual injections accordingly. Such workflow-driven designs are essentially rule-based decision trees, which suffer from two fundamental limitations: they require substantial manual effort to anticipate and encode possible task states, and they cannot exhaustively cover the state space of complex real-world tasks. To address these issues, we propose an Information-Flow-Orchestrated Multi-Agent Paradigm via Agent-to-Agent (A2A) Communication from CORAL, in which a dedicated information flow orchestrator continuously monitors task progress and dynamically coordinates other agents through the A2A toolkit using natural language, without relying on predefined workflows. We evaluate our approach on the general-purpose benchmark GAIA, using the representative workflow-based MAS OWL as the baseline while controlling for agent roles and underlying models. Under the pass@1 setting, our method achieves 63.64% accuracy, outperforming OWL's 55.15% by 8.49 percentage points with comparable token consumption. Further case-level analysis shows that our paradigm enables more flexible task monitoring and more robust handling of edge cases. Our implementation is publicly available at: https://github.com/Coral-Protocol/Beyond-Rule-Based-Workflows

Unsupervised video object segmentation (VOS) aims to detect the most prominent object in a video. Recently, two-stream approaches that leverage both RGB images and optical flow have gained significant attention, but their performance is fundamentally constrained by the scarcity of training data. To address this, we propose DepthFlow, a novel data generation method that synthesizes optical flow from single images. Our approach is driven by the key insight that VOS models depend more on structural information embedded in flow maps than on their geometric accuracy, and that this structure is highly correlated with depth. We first estimate a depth map from a source image and then convert it into a synthetic flow field that preserves essential structural cues. This process enables the transformation of large-scale image-mask pairs into image-flow-mask training pairs, dramatically expanding the data available for network training. By training a simple encoder-decoder architecture with our synthesized data, we achieve new state-of-the-art performance on all public VOS benchmarks, demonstrating a scalable and effective solution to the data scarcity problem.

Learning a generalizable bimanual manipulation policy is extremely challenging for embodied agents due to the large action space and the need for coordinated arm movements. Existing approaches rely on Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models to acquire bimanual policies. However, transferring knowledge from single-arm datasets or pre-trained VLA models often fails to generalize effectively, primarily due to the scarcity of bimanual data and the fundamental differences between single-arm and bimanual manipulation. In this paper, we propose a novel bimanual foundation policy by fine-tuning the leading text-to-video models to predict robot trajectories and training a lightweight diffusion policy for action generation. Given the lack of embodied knowledge in text-to-video models, we introduce a two-stage paradigm that fine-tunes independent text-to-flow and flow-to-video models derived from a pre-trained text-to-video model. Specifically, optical flow serves as an intermediate variable, providing a concise representation of subtle movements between images. The text-to-flow model predicts optical flow to concretize the intent of language instructions, and the flow-to-video model leverages this flow for fine-grained video prediction. Our method mitigates the ambiguity of language in single-stage text-to-video prediction and significantly reduces the robot-data requirement by avoiding direct use of low-level actions. In experiments, we collect high-quality manipulation data for real dual-arm robot, and the results of simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

A fundamental tension exists in the large-step inference of diffusion models via their deterministic probability flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE) trajectories, which we identify as the contractivity trap: efficient inference favors large step sizes, while aggressive steps and highly expressive denoisers can undermine contraction-based stability certificates for error suppression. To address this, we propose SteinDiff, a step-wise inference-time stabilization framework that employs Stein-derived corrections without requiring reference samples. Specifically, SteinDiff introduces a geometry-aware residual correction mechanism that regularizes large-step solver updates without retraining. To this end, we derive a closed-form Stein correction coefficient for step-wise solver adjustment, enabling reference-free adaptation to local data geometry. We further establish a score-controlled perturbation bound under distributional shifts and provide a complementary Stein perspective on EDM-style parameterizations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SteinDiff mitigates severe artifacts and improves generative quality across large-step inference settings.

Flow matching has recently emerged as a strong paradigm for state-of-the-art text-to-image (T2I) generation, enabling high-quality generation with a small number of sampling steps. As these models are increasingly integrated into real-world applications, ensuring safe and non-sensitive content generation has become a critical requirement. However, adapting safety and concept removal methods to this new generation framework remains an open challenge. Specifically, prior methods largely rely on iterative trajectory steering across a number of denoising steps or on CLIP-centric prompt embedding manipulation. These design assumptions pose fundamental bottlenecks for safety in flow matching-based T2I generation, where limited sampling steps constrain iterative correction and modern context-aware text encoders diminish the effectiveness of embedding-level interventions. In this paper, we propose VESFlow, a training-free safety method tailored to flow matching with extremely few sampling steps. Leveraging the fact that flow matching models learn the marginal velocity, we directly edit the velocity field via a safe-conditional posterior. VESFlow steers the trajectory toward safe outputs while leaving the conditioning prompt unchanged. Building on the observation that VESFlow leaves outputs unchanged under benign prompts, we further introduce a risk score-based filtering that bypasses velocity editing to reduce computational cost while preserving benign prompt generation. Based on this filtering, we propose VESFlow+, a stronger variant of VESFlow that not only edits the velocity toward the safe direction, but also pushes it away from the unsafe direction. Experimental results show that VESFlow+ removes the target concept, reducing the attack success rate by NudeNet to 6.3% on Ring-A-Bell and 6.8% on MMA-Diffusion on the 4-step MeanFlow model, while preserving fidelity on benign prompts.

Recent advancements adopt online reinforcement learning (RL) from LLMs to text-to-image rectified flow diffusion models for reward alignment. The use of group-level rewards successfully aligns the model with the targeted reward. However, it faces challenges including low efficiency, dependency on stochastic samplers, and reward hacking. The problem is that rectified flow models are fundamentally different from LLMs: 1) For efficiency, online image sampling takes much more time and dominates the time of training. 2) For stochasticity, rectified flow is deterministic once the initial noise is fixed. Aiming at these problems and inspired by the effects of group-level rewards from LLMs, we design Group-level Direct Reward Optimization (GDRO). GDRO is a new post-training paradigm for group-level reward alignment that combines the characteristics of rectified flow models. Through rigorous theoretical analysis, we point out that GDRO supports full offline training that saves the large time cost for image rollout sampling. Also, it is diffusion-sampler-independent, which eliminates the need for the ODE-to-SDE approximation to obtain stochasticity. We also empirically study the reward hacking trap that may mislead the evaluation, and involve this factor in the evaluation using a corrected score that not only considers the original evaluation reward but also the trend of reward hacking. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GDRO effectively and efficiently improves the reward score of the diffusion model through group-wise offline optimization across the OCR and GenEval tasks, while demonstrating strong stability and robustness in mitigating reward hacking.

Attention-based neural networks such as transformers have demonstrated a remarkable ability to exhibit in-context learning (ICL): Given a short prompt sequence of tokens from an unseen task, they can formulate relevant per-token and next-token predictions without any parameter updates. By embedding a sequence of labeled training data and unlabeled test data as a prompt, this allows for transformers to behave like supervised learning algorithms. Indeed, recent work has shown that when training transformer architectures over random instances of linear regression problems, these models' predictions mimic those of ordinary least squares. Towards understanding the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon, we investigate the dynamics of ICL in transformers with a single linear self-attention layer trained by gradient flow on linear regression tasks. We show that despite non-convexity, gradient flow with a suitable random initialization finds a global minimum of the objective function. At this global minimum, when given a test prompt of labeled examples from a new prediction task, the transformer achieves prediction error competitive with the best linear predictor over the test prompt distribution. We additionally characterize the robustness of the trained transformer to a variety of distribution shifts and show that although a number of shifts are tolerated, shifts in the covariate distribution of the prompts are not. Motivated by this, we consider a generalized ICL setting where the covariate distributions can vary across prompts. We show that although gradient flow succeeds at finding a global minimum in this setting, the trained transformer is still brittle under mild covariate shifts. We complement this finding with experiments on large, nonlinear transformer architectures which we show are more robust under covariate shifts.

Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) generate high-quality images by operating in a compressed latent space, typically obtained through image tokenizers such as Variational Autoencoders (VAEs). In pursuit of a generation-friendly VAE, recent studies have explored leveraging Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) as representation alignment targets for VAEs, mirroring the approach commonly adopted for LDMs. Although this yields certain performance gains, using the same alignment target for both VAEs and LDMs overlooks their fundamentally different representational requirements. We advocate that while LDMs benefit from latents retaining high-level semantic concepts, VAEs should excel in semantic disentanglement, enabling encoding of attribute-level information in a structured way. To address this, we propose the Semantic disentangled VAE (Send-VAE), explicitly optimized for disentangled representation learning through aligning its latent space with the semantic hierarchy of pre-trained VFMs. Our approach employs a non-linear mapper network to transform VAE latents, aligning them with VFMs to bridge the gap between attribute-level disentanglement and high-level semantics, facilitating effective guidance for VAE learning. We evaluate semantic disentanglement via linear probing on attribute prediction tasks, showing strong correlation with improved generation performance. Finally, using Send-VAE, we train flow-based transformers SiTs; experiments show Send-VAE significantly speeds up training and achieves a state-of-the-art FID of 1.21 and 1.75 with and without classifier-free guidance on ImageNet 256x256.

Banking Transaction Flow (BTF) is a sequential data found in a number of banking activities such as marketing, credit risk or banking fraud. It is a multimodal data composed of three modalities: a date, a numerical value and a wording. We propose in this work an application of self-attention mechanism to the processing of BTFs. We trained two general models on a large amount of BTFs in a self-supervised way: one RNN-based model and one Transformer-based model. We proposed a specific tokenization in order to be able to process BTFs. The performance of these two models was evaluated on two banking downstream tasks: a transaction categorization task and a credit risk task. The results show that fine-tuning these two pre-trained models allowed to perform better than the state-of-the-art approaches for both tasks.

We propose a novel approach for analysis of the composition of an equity mutual fund based on the time series decomposition of the price movements of the individual stocks of the fund. The proposed scheme can be applied to check whether the style proclaimed for a mutual fund actually matches with the fund composition. We have applied our proposed framework on eight well known mutual funds of varying styles in the Indian financial market to check the consistency between their fund style and actual fund composition, and have obtained extensive results from our experiments. A detailed analysis of the results has shown that while in majority of the cases the actual allocations of funds are consistent with the corresponding fund styles, there have been some notable deviations too.

Transaction data from digital payment systems can be used to study economic processes at such a detail that was not possible previously. Here, we analyse the data from Sarafu token network, a community inclusion currency in Kenya. During the COVID-19 emergency, the Sarafu was disbursed as part of a humanitarian aid project. In this work, the transactions are analysed using network science. A topological categorisation is defined to identify cyclic and acyclic components. Furthermore, temporal aspects of circulation taking place within these components are considered. The significant presence of different types of strongly connected components as compared to randomized null models shows the importance of cycles in this economic network. Especially, indicating their key role in currency recirculation. In some acyclic components, the most significant triad suggests the presence of a group of users collecting currency from accounts active only once, hinting at a misuse of the system. In some other acyclic components, small isolated groups of users were active only once, suggesting the presence of users only interested in trying out the system. The methods used in this paper can answer specific questions related to user activities, currency design, and assessment of monetary interventions. Our methodology provides a general quantitative tool for analysing the behaviour of users in a currency network.

Flow matching (FM) is a general framework for defining probability paths via Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to transform between noise and data samples. Recent approaches attempt to straighten these flow trajectories to generate high-quality samples with fewer function evaluations, typically through iterative rectification methods or optimal transport solutions. In this paper, we introduce Consistency Flow Matching (Consistency-FM), a novel FM method that explicitly enforces self-consistency in the velocity field. Consistency-FM directly defines straight flows starting from different times to the same endpoint, imposing constraints on their velocity values. Additionally, we propose a multi-segment training approach for Consistency-FM to enhance expressiveness, achieving a better trade-off between sampling quality and speed. Preliminary experiments demonstrate that our Consistency-FM significantly improves training efficiency by converging 4.4x faster than consistency models and 1.7x faster than rectified flow models while achieving better generation quality. Our code is available at: https://github.com/YangLing0818/consistency_flow_matching

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated notable capabilities across financial tasks, including financial report summarization, earnings call transcript analysis, and asset classification. However, their real-world effectiveness in managing complex fund investment remains inadequately assessed. A fundamental limitation of existing benchmarks for evaluating LLM-driven trading strategies is their reliance on historical back-testing, inadvertently enabling LLMs to "time travel"-leveraging future information embedded in their training corpora, thus resulting in possible information leakage and overly optimistic performance estimates. To address this issue, we introduce DeepFund, a live fund benchmark tool designed to rigorously evaluate LLM in real-time market conditions. Utilizing a multi-agent architecture, DeepFund connects directly with real-time stock market data-specifically data published after each model pretraining cutoff-to ensure fair and leakage-free evaluations. Empirical tests on nine flagship LLMs from leading global institutions across multiple investment dimensions-including ticker-level analysis, investment decision-making, portfolio management, and risk control-reveal significant practical challenges. Notably, even cutting-edge models such as DeepSeek-V3 and Claude-3.7-Sonnet incur net trading losses within DeepFund real-time evaluation environment, underscoring the present limitations of LLMs for active fund management. Our code is available at https://github.com/HKUSTDial/DeepFund.

Understanding how market participants react to shocks like scheduled macroeconomic news is crucial for both traders and policymakers. We develop a calibrated data generation process DGP that embeds four stylized trader archetypes retail, pension, institutional, and hedge funds into an extended CAPM augmented by CPI surprises. Each agents order size choice is driven by a softmax discrete choice rule over small, medium, and large trades, where utility depends on risk aversion, surprise magnitude, and liquidity. We aim to analyze each agent's reaction to shocks and Monte Carlo experiments show that higher information, lower aversion agents take systematically larger positions and achieve higher average wealth. Retail investors under react on average, exhibiting smaller allocations and more dispersed outcomes. And ambient liquidity amplifies the sensitivity of order flow to surprise shocks. Our framework offers a transparent benchmark for analyzing order flow dynamics around macro releases and suggests how real time flow data could inform news impact inference.

We introduce a new paradigm for generative modeling built on Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), allowing us to train CNFs at unprecedented scale. Specifically, we present the notion of Flow Matching (FM), a simulation-free approach for training CNFs based on regressing vector fields of fixed conditional probability paths. Flow Matching is compatible with a general family of Gaussian probability paths for transforming between noise and data samples -- which subsumes existing diffusion paths as specific instances. Interestingly, we find that employing FM with diffusion paths results in a more robust and stable alternative for training diffusion models. Furthermore, Flow Matching opens the door to training CNFs with other, non-diffusion probability paths. An instance of particular interest is using Optimal Transport (OT) displacement interpolation to define the conditional probability paths. These paths are more efficient than diffusion paths, provide faster training and sampling, and result in better generalization. Training CNFs using Flow Matching on ImageNet leads to consistently better performance than alternative diffusion-based methods in terms of both likelihood and sample quality, and allows fast and reliable sample generation using off-the-shelf numerical ODE solvers.

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the phenomena observed in publicly available trades and quotes data. Specifically, we confirmed that for small signed order-flows, the price impact grows linearly with increase in the order-flow imbalance. We have, further, implemented a machine learning algorithm to forecast market impact given a signed order-flow. Our findings suggest that machine learning models can be used in estimation of financial variables; and predictive accuracy of such learning algorithms can surpass the performance of traditional statistical approaches. Understanding the determinants of price impact is crucial for several reasons. From a theoretical stance, modelling the impact provides a statistical measure of liquidity. Practitioners adopt impact models as a pre-trade tool to estimate expected transaction costs and optimize the execution of their strategies. This further serves as a post-trade valuation benchmark as suboptimal execution can significantly deteriorate a portfolio performance. More broadly, the price impact reflects the balance of liquidity across markets. This is of central importance to regulators as it provides an all-encompassing explanation of the correlation between market design and systemic risk, enabling regulators to design more stable and efficient markets.

We present Piecewise Rectified Flow (PeRFlow), a flow-based method for accelerating diffusion models. PeRFlow divides the sampling process of generative flows into several time windows and straightens the trajectories in each interval via the reflow operation, thereby approaching piecewise linear flows. PeRFlow achieves superior performance in a few-step generation. Moreover, through dedicated parameterizations, the obtained PeRFlow models show advantageous transfer ability, serving as universal plug-and-play accelerators that are compatible with various workflows based on the pre-trained diffusion models. The implementations of training and inference are fully open-sourced. https://github.com/magic-research/piecewise-rectified-flow

Diffusion models are commonly interpreted as learning the score function, i.e., the gradient of the log-density of noisy data. However, this assumption implies that the target of learning is a conservative vector field, which is not enforced by the neural network architectures used in practice. We present numerical evidence that trained diffusion networks violate both integral and differential constraints required of true score functions, demonstrating that the learned vector fields are not conservative. Despite this, the models perform remarkably well as generative mechanisms. To explain this apparent paradox, we advocate a new theoretical perspective: diffusion training is better understood as flow matching to the velocity field of a Wasserstein Gradient Flow (WGF), rather than as score learning for a reverse-time stochastic differential equation. Under this view, the "probability flow" arises naturally from the WGF framework, eliminating the need to invoke reverse-time SDE theory and clarifying why generative sampling remains successful even when the neural vector field is not a true score. We further show that non-conservative errors from neural approximation do not necessarily harm density transport. Our results advocate for adopting the WGF perspective as a principled, elegant, and theoretically grounded framework for understanding diffusion generative models.

We placed 100 memory-equipped large language model (LLM) agents in charge of a closed, money-conserving spatial economy on real Pokhara Lakeside geography (earning wages, running businesses, setting prices) and ran this multi-agent simulation for up to 26 simulated weeks, well past the 1-2 weeks typical of agent-society studies. Across 91 validated runs (2.44M agent decisions, 21.5B tokens), the money stops moving, in a specific and measurable way. A 12x tourist demand shock raises business revenue 4.62x (p<0.001), which we decompose exactly into a 1.50x extensive margin (more businesses trading) and a 3.07x intensive margin (more revenue each). Monetary transmission stops there. Wages move 1.03x (p=0.42); 0.3% of 3,981 menu items are ever repriced (p=0.47). A randomized cash transfer (NPR 5,000 to 20 of 100 agents) shows the same pattern from the opposite direction: 96.7% is still held 311 pulses later, marginal propensity to consume 3-4% by two independent measures, indistinguishable from zero. The wealth distribution is consequently near-frozen at the horizon this literature uses (ρ=0.964 over 2 simulated weeks), but not frozen. ρ falls to 0.832 at 12 weeks and 0.752 at 26, a horizon-dependence no short study can see. Matched ablations show which knob actually matters. Swapping the backing LLM moves every outcome we measure (p=0.0039); deleting agents' memory moves none of them detectably. A purely social tool fails 94-97% of the time across two model families, compared with ~96% success on economic tools, with no measurable shift away from it. Every headline number is verified twice, by a live validator and by an offline recomputation that reconciles each agent's wealth against its own signed transaction history, and we release the full run corpus for reanalysis.

Diffusion models can learn rich representations during data generation, showing potential for Self-Supervised Learning (SSL), but they face a trade-off between generative quality and discriminative performance. Their iterative sampling also incurs substantial computational and energy costs, hindering industrial and edge AI applications. To address these issues, we propose the Flow Matching-based Foundation Model (FlowFM), which jointly trains a representation encoder and a conditional flow matching generator. This decoupled design achieves both high-fidelity generation and effective recognition. By using flow matching to learn a simpler velocity field, FlowFM accelerates and stabilizes training, improving its efficiency for representation learning. Experiments on wearable sensor data show FlowFM reduces training time by 50.4\% compared to a diffusion-based approach. On downstream tasks, FlowFM surpassed the state-of-the-art SSL method (SSL-Wearables) on all five datasets while achieving up to a 51.0x inference speedup and maintaining high generative quality. The implementation code is available at https://github.com/Okita-Laboratory/jointOptimizationFlowMatching.

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correlations. Our framework augments the binomial tree with path-dependent transition probabilities estimated via Random Forest classifiers trained on high-frequency market data. This approach preserves no-arbitrage conditions while embedding real-world trading dynamics into the pricing model. Using 46,655 minute-level observations of SPY from January to June 2025, we achieve an AUC of 88.25% in forecasting one-step price movements. Order flow imbalance is identified as the most influential predictor, contributing 43.2% to feature importance. After resolving time-scaling inconsistencies in tree construction, our model yields option prices that deviate by 13.79% from Black-Scholes benchmarks, highlighting the impact of microstructure on fair value estimation. While computational limitations restrict the model to short-term derivatives, our results offer a robust, data-driven alternative to classical pricing methods grounded in empirical market behavior.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities across various domains, but their effectiveness in financial decision-making remains inadequately evaluated. Current benchmarks primarily assess LLMs' understanding on financial documents rather than the ability to manage assets or dig out trading opportunities in dynamic market conditions. Despite the release of new benchmarks for evaluating diversified tasks on the financial domain, we identified four major problems in these benchmarks, which are data leakage, navel-gazing, over-intervention, and maintenance-hard. To pave the research gap, we introduce DeepFund, a comprehensive arena platform for evaluating LLM-based trading strategies in a live environment. Our approach implements a multi-agent framework where they serve as multiple key roles that realize the real-world investment decision processes. Moreover, we provide a web interface that visualizes LLMs' performance with fund investment metrics across different market conditions, enabling detailed comparative analysis. Through DeepFund, we aim to provide a more realistic and fair assessment on LLM's capabilities in fund investment, offering diversified insights and revealing their potential applications in real-world financial markets. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/HKUSTDial/DeepFund.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

Financial portfolio management is the process of constant redistribution of a fund into different financial products. This paper presents a financial-model-free Reinforcement Learning framework to provide a deep machine learning solution to the portfolio management problem. The framework consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. This framework is realized in three instants in this work with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a basic Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). They are, along with a number of recently reviewed or published portfolio-selection strategies, examined in three back-test experiments with a trading period of 30 minutes in a cryptocurrency market. Cryptocurrencies are electronic and decentralized alternatives to government-issued money, with Bitcoin as the best-known example of a cryptocurrency. All three instances of the framework monopolize the top three positions in all experiments, outdistancing other compared trading algorithms. Although with a high commission rate of 0.25% in the backtests, the framework is able to achieve at least 4-fold returns in 50 days.

Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies. Not surprisingly, this area has attracted considerable attention from researchers, who have proposed a wide range of methods based on various backbones. However, the evaluation of the area often exhibits three systemic limitations: 1. Failure to account for the full spectrum of stock movement patterns observed in dynamic financial markets. (Diversity Gap), 2. The absence of unified assessment protocols undermines the validity of cross-study performance comparisons. (Standardization Deficit), and 3. Neglect of critical market structure factors, resulting in inflated performance metrics that lack practical applicability. (Real-World Mismatch). Addressing these limitations, we propose FinTSB, a comprehensive and practical benchmark for financial time series forecasting (FinTSF). To increase the variety, we categorize movement patterns into four specific parts, tokenize and pre-process the data, and assess the data quality based on some sequence characteristics. To eliminate biases due to different evaluation settings, we standardize the metrics across three dimensions and build a user-friendly, lightweight pipeline incorporating methods from various backbones. To accurately simulate real-world trading scenarios and facilitate practical implementation, we extensively model various regulatory constraints, including transaction fees, among others. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on FinTSB, highlighting key insights to guide model selection under varying market conditions. Overall, FinTSB provides researchers with a novel and comprehensive platform for improving and evaluating FinTSF methods. The code is available at https://github.com/TongjiFinLab/FinTSB.

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in accurate prediction. Methods: To address this, we propose a method that transforms order flow data over a fixed time interval (snapshots) into images. The order flow includes trade sizes, trade directions, and limit order book, and is mapped into image colour channels. These images are then used to train both a simple 3-layer Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and more advanced ResNet-18 and ConvMixer, with additionally supplementing them with hand-crafted features. The models are evaluated against classical GARCH, Multilayer Perceptron trained on raw data, and a naive guess method that considers current volatility as a prediction. Results: The experiments are conducted using price data from January 2021 and evaluate model performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSPE). The results show that our order flow representation with a CNN as a predictive model achieves the best performance, with an RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1 for the model with aggregated features and 1.0+/-1.4 for the model without feature supplementation. ConvMixer with feature supplementation follows closely. In comparison, the RMSPE for the naive guess method was 1.4+/-3.0.

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

Financial trading is a crucial component of the markets, informed by a multimodal information landscape encompassing news, prices, and Kline charts, and encompasses diverse tasks such as quantitative trading and high-frequency trading with various assets. While advanced AI techniques like deep learning and reinforcement learning are extensively utilized in finance, their application in financial trading tasks often faces challenges due to inadequate handling of multimodal data and limited generalizability across various tasks. To address these challenges, we present FinAgent, a multimodal foundational agent with tool augmentation for financial trading. FinAgent's market intelligence module processes a diverse range of data-numerical, textual, and visual-to accurately analyze the financial market. Its unique dual-level reflection module not only enables rapid adaptation to market dynamics but also incorporates a diversified memory retrieval system, enhancing the agent's ability to learn from historical data and improve decision-making processes. The agent's emphasis on reasoning for actions fosters trust in its financial decisions. Moreover, FinAgent integrates established trading strategies and expert insights, ensuring that its trading approaches are both data-driven and rooted in sound financial principles. With comprehensive experiments on 6 financial datasets, including stocks and Crypto, FinAgent significantly outperforms 9 state-of-the-art baselines in terms of 6 financial metrics with over 36% average improvement on profit. Specifically, a 92.27% return (a 84.39% relative improvement) is achieved on one dataset. Notably, FinAgent is the first advanced multimodal foundation agent designed for financial trading tasks.

Flow Matching (FM) is a recent framework for generative modeling that has achieved state-of-the-art performance across various domains, including image, video, audio, speech, and biological structures. This guide offers a comprehensive and self-contained review of FM, covering its mathematical foundations, design choices, and extensions. By also providing a PyTorch package featuring relevant examples (e.g., image and text generation), this work aims to serve as a resource for both novice and experienced researchers interested in understanding, applying and further developing FM.

We study permissionless spot--perpetual basis trading in decentralized finance as a collateral control problem. The strategy holds spot inventory, hedges directional exposure with a short perpetual, and allocates capital between spot inventory and derivative margin under on-chain liquidity and execution frictions. The paper delivers three results. First, it solves a static control problem for the collateral share and shows that the risk-constrained formulation provides a more robust operating benchmark relative to the economic optimum. In comparative calibration, the required collateral rises monotonically under volatility stress. The collateral is the lowest for BTC and increases significantly for long tail assets such as LINK and DOGE. Second, the paper derives an asymmetric dynamic extension in which the lower boundary of intervention is solvency driven, and the upper boundary is determined by a trade-off between carry-loss and the cost of rebalancing. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the lower boundary remains structurally relevant, whereas meaningful interior upper triggers survive mainly in the regimes with high carry and low costs. Third, the paper validates an execution-aware implementation with live routed execution and historical backtests. The execution layer shows that the realized wedges are significant, but become worse in the case of selling the basis. This justifies a minimum effective rebalancing size and a positive execution buffer. The historical validation shows that in the case of a fixed control rule the realized performance is predominantly explained by the funding environment.

Normalizing Flows (NFs) have been established as a principled framework for generative modeling. Standard NFs consist of a forward process and a reverse process: the forward process maps data to noise, while the reverse process generates samples by inverting it. Typical NF forward transformations are constrained by explicit invertibility, ensuring that the reverse process can serve as their exact analytic inverse. Recent developments in TARFlow and its variants have revitalized NF methods by combining Transformers and autoregressive flows, but have also exposed causal decoding as a major bottleneck. In this work, we introduce Bidirectional Normalizing Flow (BiFlow), a framework that removes the need for an exact analytic inverse. BiFlow learns a reverse model that approximates the underlying noise-to-data inverse mapping, enabling more flexible loss functions and architectures. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that BiFlow, compared to its causal decoding counterpart, improves generation quality while accelerating sampling by up to two orders of magnitude. BiFlow yields state-of-the-art results among NF-based methods and competitive performance among single-evaluation ("1-NFE") methods. Following recent encouraging progress on NFs, we hope our work will draw further attention to this classical paradigm.

In this article, we consider the problem of a bank's loan portfolio in the context of liquidity risk, while allowing for the limited liability protection enjoyed by the bank. Accordingly, we construct a novel loan portfolio model with limited liability, while maintaining a threshold level of haircut in the portfolio. For the constructed three-time step loan portfolio, at the initial time, the bank raises capital via debt and equity, investing the same in several classes of loans, while at the final time, the bank either meets its liabilities or becomes insolvent. At the intermediate time step, a fraction of the deposits are withdrawn, resulting in liquidation of some of the bank's assets. The liquidated portfolio is designed with the goal of minimizing the liquidation cost. Our theoretical results show that model with the haircut constraint leads to lesser liquidity risk, as compared to the scenario of no haircut constraint being imposed. Finally, we present numerical results to illustrate the theoretical results which were obtained.

Recent advances in diffusion/flow-matching policies have enabled imitation learning of complex, multi-modal action trajectories. However, they are computationally expensive because they sample a trajectory of trajectories: a diffusion/flow trajectory of action trajectories. They discard intermediate action trajectories, and must wait for the sampling process to complete before any actions can be executed on the robot. We simplify diffusion/flow policies by treating action trajectories as flow trajectories. Instead of starting from pure noise, our algorithm samples from a narrow Gaussian around the last action. Then, it incrementally integrates a velocity field learned via flow matching to produce a sequence of actions that constitute a single trajectory. This enables actions to be streamed to the robot on-the-fly during the flow sampling process, and is well-suited for receding horizon policy execution. Despite streaming, our method retains the ability to model multi-modal behavior. We train flows that stabilize around demonstration trajectories to reduce distribution shift and improve imitation learning performance. Streaming flow policy outperforms prior methods while enabling faster policy execution and tighter sensorimotor loops for learning-based robot control. Project website: https://streaming-flow-policy.github.io/

This study analyzes Sri Lankan migration and remittances over 32 years (1994-2025). Using a 384-month harmonized dataset, we apply exploratory data analysis, stationarity corrected time-series modeling (ADF, Johansen, VAR/VECM), and supervised learning. Results reveal remittance inflows are primarily driven by external macroeconomic variables, specifically exchange rate dynamics and global oil prices, rather than domestic indicators. Impulse response analysis confirms the asymmetric impact of currency depreciation and oil price shocks. Predictively, multivariate machine learning models outperform traditional univariate approaches; Ridge Regression achieves a 73.8% accuracy improvement over SARIMA (Annualized RMSE: USD 494.8 Mn). The optimized framework projects 2026 remittances at USD 9,001 million under stable conditions. These findings highlight the structural dependence of remittances on global economies, emphasizing the need for robust exchange rate policies, skilled migration, and formal financial channels to enhance long-term economic resilience.

The multi-step denoising process in diffusion and Flow Matching models causes major efficiency issues, which motivates research on few-step generation. We present Solution Flow Models (SoFlow), a framework for one-step generation from scratch. By analyzing the relationship between the velocity function and the solution function of the velocity ordinary differential equation (ODE), we propose a Flow Matching loss and a solution consistency loss to train our models. The Flow Matching loss allows our models to provide estimated velocity fields for Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) during training, which improves generation performance. Notably, our consistency loss does not require the calculation of the Jacobian-vector product (JVP), a common requirement in recent works that is not well-optimized in deep learning frameworks like PyTorch. Experimental results indicate that, when trained from scratch using the same Diffusion Transformer (DiT) architecture and an equal number of training epochs, our models achieve better FID-50K scores than MeanFlow models on the ImageNet 256x256 dataset.

Among on-policy reinforcement learning algorithms, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) demonstrates is widely favored for its simplicity, numerical stability, and strong empirical performance. Standard PPO relies on surrogate objectives defined via importance ratios, which require evaluating policy likelihood that is typically straightforward when the policy is modeled as a Gaussian distribution. However, extending PPO to more expressive, high-capacity policy models such as continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), also known as flow-matching models, is challenging because likelihood evaluation along the full flow trajectory is computationally expensive and often numerically unstable. To resolve this issue, we propose PolicyFlow, a novel on-policy CNF-based reinforcement learning algorithm that integrates expressive CNF policies with PPO-style objectives without requiring likelihood evaluation along the full flow path. PolicyFlow approximates importance ratios using velocity field variations along a simple interpolation path, reducing computational overhead without compromising training stability. To further prevent mode collapse and further encourage diverse behaviors, we propose the Brownian Regularizer, an implicit policy entropy regularizer inspired by Brownian motion, which is conceptually elegant and computationally lightweight. Experiments on diverse tasks across various environments including MultiGoal, PointMaze, IsaacLab and MuJoCo Playground show that PolicyFlow achieves competitive or superior performance compared to PPO using Gaussian policies and flow-based baselines including FPO and DPPO. Notably, results on MultiGoal highlight PolicyFlow's ability to capture richer multimodal action distributions.

Trader-facing dynamic fees are increasingly proposed for automated market makers (AMMs), but historical data do not identify how order flow would respond: trader-facing fees do not vary, trader types are latent, and a replayed tape is not a sequential decision environment. We therefore construct a minimal closed-loop simulator in which the missing signal exists by construction: two constant-product pools repriced by an equilibrium-inspired dynamic-fee rule, fee-sensitive noise flow, and closed-form CEX--AMM arbitrage. Equilibrium is used as a closure principle, not as an object the trader learns. Against a tuned benchmark ladder of schedule, planning, lookahead, and tabular policies, a small DQN is the only evaluated valid policy whose paired improvement over tuned one-step routing excludes zero. On a reserved final block of 1{,}000 seeds with completion forced to 1.0 for every policy, it reduces implementation shortfall under every tested intra-step ordering, by 13.3bps of order notional under the pre-specified agent-last ordering, and the edge is concentrated in, and learned from, dynamic-fee environments: under constant fees the paired difference is indistinguishable from zero. The result is model-conditioned counterfactual evidence about execution control in AMMs, not evidence about historical traders, equilibrium play, or deployable profit.

Backtests of cryptocurrency perpetual futures are fragile when they ignore microstructure frictions and reuse evaluation windows during parameter search. We study four liquid perpetuals (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, SOL/USDT, AVAX/USDT) and quantify how execution delay, funding, fees, and slippage can inflate reported performance. We introduce AutoQuant, an execution-centric, alpha-agnostic framework for auditable strategy configuration selection. AutoQuant encodes strict T+1 execution semantics and no-look-ahead funding alignment, runs Bayesian optimization under realistic costs, and applies a two-stage double-screening protocol across held-out rolling windows and a cost-sensitivity grid. We show that fee-only and zero-cost backtests can materially overestimate annualized returns relative to a fully costed configuration, and that double screening tends to reduce drawdowns under the same strict semantics even when returns are not higher. A CSCV/PBO diagnostic indicates substantial residual overfitting risk, motivating AutoQuant as validation and governance infrastructure rather than a claim of persistent alpha. Returns are reported for small-account simulations with linear trading costs and without market impact or capacity modeling.

In most countries, basic research is supported by research councils that select, after peer review, the individuals or teams that are to receive funding. Unfortunately, the number of grants these research councils can allocate is not infinite and, in most cases, a minority of the researchers receive the majority of the funds. However, evidence as to whether this is an optimal way of distributing available funds is mixed. The purpose of this study is to measure the relation between the amount of funding provided to 12,720 researchers in Quebec over a fifteen year period (1998-2012) and their scientific output and impact from 2000 to 2013. Our results show that both in terms of the quantity of papers produced and of their scientific impact, the concentration of research funding in the hands of a so-called "elite" of researchers generally produces diminishing marginal returns. Also, we find that the most funded researchers do not stand out in terms of output and scientific impact.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

We propose a unified, few-step generative modeling framework based on cumulative flow maps for long-range transport in probability space, inspired by flow-map techniques for physical transport and dynamics. At its core is a cumulative-flow abstraction that connects local, instantaneous updates with finite-time transport, enabling generative models to reason about global state transitions. This perspective yields a unified few-step framework built on cumulative transport and cumulative parameterization that applies broadly to existing diffusion- and flow-based models without being tied to a specific prediction instantiation. Our formulation supports few-step and even one-step generation while preserving synthesis quality, requiring only minimal changes to time embeddings and training objectives, and no increase in model capacity. We demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse tasks, including image generation, geometric distribution modeling, joint prediction, and SDF generation, with reduced inference cost.

This paper develops a three-currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework in which corporate credit is treated as a separate economy, connected to the nominal and real economies through synthetic inflation and credit exchange rates. The framework produces a testable identity. Under joint no-arbitrage, the credit spread of an issuer expressed over the inflation-rateindexed risk-free curve equals the same issuer's credit spread expressed over the nominalrate-indexed risk-free curve plus the model-implied breakeven inflation forward at the same maturity. The identity holds within any single calibration of the framework. It is empirically falsifiable across two parallel corporate-bond segments of the same market, in a segmented market the two segments may price different corporate credit economies, and the gap between their implied corporate forwards measures the failure of the shared-credit-economy assumption. Applied to Brazilian debenture markets, the framework delivers a sharp empirical finding. Fifteen large issuers placed paper in both the CDI-indexed general-purpose segment and the IPCA-indexed infrastructure segment between January 2021 and February 2026. The within-issuer triangle residual at the 3-year tenor averages 640 basis points, with crosssectional standard deviation of 26 basis points across the 15 issuer means, and remains stable through both the 2021-2023 BCB tightening cycle and the 2024-2026 easing phase. A retail post-tax indifference benchmark anchored on Lei 12.431 closes the bulk of the residual. The remainder is consistent with institutional participation on the CDI side, contractual asymmetries between debentures with different use-of-proceeds restrictions, and segment-specific liquidity gaps.

The rapidly evolving field of Robotic Process Automation (RPA) has made significant strides in automating repetitive processes, yet its effectiveness diminishes in scenarios requiring spontaneous or unpredictable tasks demanded by users. This paper introduces a novel approach, FlowMind, leveraging the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) such as Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT), to address this limitation and create an automatic workflow generation system. In FlowMind, we propose a generic prompt recipe for a lecture that helps ground LLM reasoning with reliable Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). With this, FlowMind not only mitigates the common issue of hallucinations in LLMs, but also eliminates direct interaction between LLMs and proprietary data or code, thus ensuring the integrity and confidentiality of information - a cornerstone in financial services. FlowMind further simplifies user interaction by presenting high-level descriptions of auto-generated workflows, enabling users to inspect and provide feedback effectively. We also introduce NCEN-QA, a new dataset in finance for benchmarking question-answering tasks from N-CEN reports on funds. We used NCEN-QA to evaluate the performance of workflows generated by FlowMind against baseline and ablation variants of FlowMind. We demonstrate the success of FlowMind, the importance of each component in the proposed lecture recipe, and the effectiveness of user interaction and feedback in FlowMind.

Generating high-quality time series data has emerged as a critical research topic due to its broad utility in supporting downstream time series mining tasks. A major challenge lies in modeling the intrinsic stochasticity of temporal dynamics, as real-world sequences often exhibit random fluctuations and localized variations. While diffusion models have achieved remarkable success, their generation process is computationally inefficient, often requiring hundreds to thousands of expensive function evaluations per sample. Flow matching has emerged as a more efficient paradigm, yet its conventional ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based formulation fails to explicitly capture stochasticity, thereby limiting the fidelity of generated sequences. By contrast, stochastic differential equation (SDE) are naturally suited for modeling randomness and uncertainty. Motivated by these insights, we propose TimeFlow, a novel SDE-based flow matching framework that integrates a encoder-only architecture. Specifically, we design a component-wise decomposed velocity field to capture the multi-faceted structure of time series and augment the vanilla flow-matching optimization with an additional stochastic term to enhance representational expressiveness. TimeFlow is flexible and general, supporting both unconditional and conditional generation tasks within a unified framework. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms strong baselines in generation quality, diversity, and efficiency.

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are likelihood-based models for continuous inputs. They have demonstrated promising results on both density estimation and generative modeling tasks, but have received relatively little attention in recent years. In this work, we demonstrate that NFs are more powerful than previously believed. We present TarFlow: a simple and scalable architecture that enables highly performant NF models. TarFlow can be thought of as a Transformer-based variant of Masked Autoregressive Flows (MAFs): it consists of a stack of autoregressive Transformer blocks on image patches, alternating the autoregression direction between layers. TarFlow is straightforward to train end-to-end, and capable of directly modeling and generating pixels. We also propose three key techniques to improve sample quality: Gaussian noise augmentation during training, a post training denoising procedure, and an effective guidance method for both class-conditional and unconditional settings. Putting these together, TarFlow sets new state-of-the-art results on likelihood estimation for images, beating the previous best methods by a large margin, and generates samples with quality and diversity comparable to diffusion models, for the first time with a stand-alone NF model. We make our code available at https://github.com/apple/ml-tarflow.

This paper measures hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility, and realised yield in a 15-day paper-traded deployment of an autonomous memecoin trading system on Solana decentralised exchanges. The 190-trade sample (March 29 to April 12, 2026) shows a 40.5 percent win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62 percent, cumulative +117.7 percent (net SOL +0.039), skewness -1.21, excess kurtosis 6.61. A Mann-Whitney U test of three poorest-performing UTC hours (2, 13, 23) against the others yields U = 1,274, p = 0.22; directional but not significant at n = 190. The three hours were selected in-sample, so the comparison is exploratory, not confirmatory. A parallel counterfactual rejection-tracking system collected 4,874 forward-sample observations across 184 distinct rejection events. Of those events, 17.9 percent reached a 50 percent drawdown from reference within 24 hours; 26.0 percent of forward samples recorded the rejected token below half-reference. The filter stack avoided these realised drawdowns: evidence that the rejection criteria are net-positive against forward-market outcomes. Fragility is the principal caveat. Removing the top three trades (1.6 percent of sample) flips cumulative return unprofitable. Profitability rests on a small number of large winners and is structurally fragile. The dataset and audit script are deposited under CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20043302).

This paper examines the fiscal and macroeconomic strategies essential for transition of India to a high income economy by 2047, aligning with the vision of Viksit Bharat. A sustainable annual GDP growth rate of 7 to 8 percent is projected as necessary to achieve this milestone while maintaining fiscal prudence through a targeted deficit threshold below 3.5 percent of GDP. The study underscores the role of disciplined fiscal management in financing critical public investments in infrastructure, human capital development and technological innovation. Given constraints on domestic resource mobilization, the paper highlights the importance of multilateral financial institutions, including the World Bank, IMF and ADB, in expanding fiscal space in India through concessional financing, technical cooperation, and risk sharing mechanisms. Using econometric modeling and scenario analysis, the research identifies key policy interventions in infrastructure, healthcare, education and sustainable energy that can maximize growth while ensuring fiscal sustainability. Policy recommendations include enhancing tax buoyancy, rationalizing expenditure, optimizing public private partnerships and strengthening fiscal responsibility frameworks. The findings suggest that a calibrated approach to growth, prudent fiscal management and strategic international collaborations are critical to achieving long term economic aspirations of India.

In this work, we aim to reconcile several apparently contradictory observations in market microstructure: is the famous "square-root law" of metaorder impact, which decays with time, compatible with the random-walk nature of prices and the linear impact of order imbalances? Can one entirely explain the volatility of prices as resulting from the flow of uninformed metaorders that mechanically impact them? We introduce a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes and durations, which all impact prices as a square-root of volume but with a subsequent time decay. We show that, as in the original propagator model, price diffusion is ensured by the long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders. In order to account for the effect of strongly fluctuating volumes q of individual trades, we further introduce two q-dependent exponents, which allow us to describe how the moments of generalized volume imbalance and the correlation between price changes and generalized order flow imbalance scale with T. We predict in particular that the corresponding power-laws depend in a non-monotonic fashion on a parameter a, which allows one to put the same weight on all child orders or to overweight large ones, a behaviour that is clearly borne out by empirical data. We also predict that the correlation between price changes and volume imbalances should display a maximum as a function of a, which again matches observations. Such noteworthy agreement between theory and data suggests that our framework correctly captures the basic mechanism at the heart of price formation, namely the average impact of metaorders. We argue that our results support the "Order-Driven" theory of excess volatility, and are at odds with the idea that a "Fundamental" component accounts for a large share of the volatility of financial markets.

Diffusion models have exhibited excellent performance in various domains. The probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE) of diffusion models (i.e., diffusion ODEs) is a particular case of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), which enables deterministic inference and exact likelihood evaluation. However, the likelihood estimation results by diffusion ODEs are still far from those of the state-of-the-art likelihood-based generative models. In this work, we propose several improved techniques for maximum likelihood estimation for diffusion ODEs, including both training and evaluation perspectives. For training, we propose velocity parameterization and explore variance reduction techniques for faster convergence. We also derive an error-bounded high-order flow matching objective for finetuning, which improves the ODE likelihood and smooths its trajectory. For evaluation, we propose a novel training-free truncated-normal dequantization to fill the training-evaluation gap commonly existing in diffusion ODEs. Building upon these techniques, we achieve state-of-the-art likelihood estimation results on image datasets (2.56 on CIFAR-10, 3.43/3.69 on ImageNet-32) without variational dequantization or data augmentation.