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Sep 16

OASIS: Open Agent Social Interaction Simulations with One Million Agents

There has been a growing interest in enhancing rule-based agent-based models (ABMs) for social media platforms (i.e., X, Reddit) with more realistic large language model (LLM) agents, thereby allowing for a more nuanced study of complex systems. As a result, several LLM-based ABMs have been proposed in the past year. While they hold promise, each simulator is specifically designed to study a particular scenario, making it time-consuming and resource-intensive to explore other phenomena using the same ABM. Additionally, these models simulate only a limited number of agents, whereas real-world social media platforms involve millions of users. To this end, we propose OASIS, a generalizable and scalable social media simulator. OASIS is designed based on real-world social media platforms, incorporating dynamically updated environments (i.e., dynamic social networks and post information), diverse action spaces (i.e., following, commenting), and recommendation systems (i.e., interest-based and hot-score-based). Additionally, OASIS supports large-scale user simulations, capable of modeling up to one million users. With these features, OASIS can be easily extended to different social media platforms to study large-scale group phenomena and behaviors. We replicate various social phenomena, including information spreading, group polarization, and herd effects across X and Reddit platforms. Moreover, we provide observations of social phenomena at different agent group scales. We observe that the larger agent group scale leads to more enhanced group dynamics and more diverse and helpful agents' opinions. These findings demonstrate OASIS's potential as a powerful tool for studying complex systems in digital environments.

  • 23 authors
·
Nov 18, 2024

From chambers to echo chambers: Quantifying polarization with a second-neighbor approach applied to Twitter's climate discussion

Social media platforms often foster environments where users primarily engage with content that aligns with their existing beliefs, thereby reinforcing their views and limiting exposure to opposing viewpoints. In this paper, we analyze X (formerly Twitter) discussions on climate change throughout 2019, using an unsupervised method centered on chambers--second-order information sources--to uncover ideological patterns at scale. Beyond direct connections, chambers capture shared sources of influence, revealing polarization dynamics efficiently and effectively. Analyzing retweet patterns, we identify echo chambers of climate believers and skeptics, revealing strong chamber overlap within ideological groups and minimal overlap between them, resulting in a robust bimodal structure that characterizes polarization. Our method enables us to infer the stance of high-impact users based on their audience's chamber alignment, allowing for the classification of over half the retweeting population with minimal cross-group interaction, in what we term augmented echo chamber classification. We benchmark our approach against manual labeling and a state-of-the-art latent ideology model, finding comparable performance but with nearly four times greater coverage. Moreover, we find that echo chamber structures remain stable over time, even as their members change significantly, suggesting that these structures are a persistent and emergent property of the system. Notably, polarization decreases and climate skepticism rises during the #FridaysForFuture strikes in September 2019. This chamber-based analysis offers valuable insights into the persistence and fluidity of ideological polarization on social media.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 29, 2022 1

POSIM: A Multi-Agent Simulation Framework for Social Media Public Opinion Evolution and Governance

Modeling social media public opinion evolution is essential for governance decision-making. Traditional epidemic models and rule-based agent-based models (ABMs) fail to capture the cognitive processes and adaptive behaviors of real users. Recent large language model (LLM)-based social simulations can reproduce group-level phenomena like polarization and conformity, yet remain unable to recreate the irrational interactions and multi-phase dynamics of real public opinion events. We present POSIM (Public Opinion Simulator), a multi-agent simulation framework for social media public opinion evolution and governance. POSIM integrates LLM-driven agents with a Belief--Desire--Intention (BDI) cognitive architecture that accounts for irrational factors, places them in a virtual social media environment with social networks and recommendation mechanisms, and drives temporal dynamics through a Hawkes point process engine that captures the co-evolution of agents and the environment across event phases. To validate the framework, we collect real-world public opinion datasets from the Weibo platform covering the full interaction chain of users. Experiments show that POSIM successfully reproduces key characteristics of public opinion evolution from individual mechanisms to collective phenomena, and its effectiveness is further supported by multiple statistical metrics. Building on POSIM, governance-oriented guidance and intervention experiments uncover a counterintuitive empathy paradox: empathetic guidance deepens negative sentiment instead of easing it under certain conditions, offering new insights for governance strategy design. These results demonstrate that the proposed framework can fully serve as a computational experimentation platform for proactive strategy evaluation and evidence-based governance. All source code is available at https://github.com/DeepCogLab/posim/.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 24

Higher-Order Binding of Language Model Virtual Personas: a Study on Approximating Political Partisan Misperceptions

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of simulating human behavior, offering cost-effective ways to estimate user responses during the early phases of survey design. While previous studies have examined whether models can reflect individual opinions or attitudes, we argue that a higher-order binding of virtual personas requires successfully approximating not only the opinions of a user as an identified member of a group, but also the nuanced ways in which that user perceives and evaluates those outside the group. In particular, faithfully simulating how humans perceive different social groups is critical for applying LLMs to various political science studies, including timely topics on polarization dynamics, inter-group conflict, and democratic backsliding. To this end, we propose a novel methodology for constructing virtual personas with synthetic user ``backstories" generated as extended, multi-turn interview transcripts. Our generated backstories are longer, rich in detail, and consistent in authentically describing a singular individual, compared to previous methods. We show that virtual personas conditioned on our backstories closely replicate human response distributions (up to an 87\% improvement as measured by Wasserstein Distance) and produce effect sizes that closely match those observed in the original studies. Altogether, our work extends the applicability of LLMs beyond estimating individual self-opinions, enabling their use in a broader range of human studies.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 15, 2025

The Wisdom of Polarized Crowds

As political polarization in the United States continues to rise, the question of whether polarized individuals can fruitfully cooperate becomes pressing. Although diversity of individual perspectives typically leads to superior team performance on complex tasks, strong political perspectives have been associated with conflict, misinformation and a reluctance to engage with people and perspectives beyond one's echo chamber. It is unclear whether self-selected teams of politically diverse individuals will create higher or lower quality outcomes. In this paper, we explore the effect of team political composition on performance through analysis of millions of edits to Wikipedia's Political, Social Issues, and Science articles. We measure editors' political alignments by their contributions to conservative versus liberal articles. A survey of editors validates that those who primarily edit liberal articles identify more strongly with the Democratic party and those who edit conservative ones with the Republican party. Our analysis then reveals that polarized teams---those consisting of a balanced set of politically diverse editors---create articles of higher quality than politically homogeneous teams. The effect appears most strongly in Wikipedia's Political articles, but is also observed in Social Issues and even Science articles. Analysis of article "talk pages" reveals that politically polarized teams engage in longer, more constructive, competitive, and substantively focused but linguistically diverse debates than political moderates. More intense use of Wikipedia policies by politically diverse teams suggests institutional design principles to help unleash the power of politically polarized teams.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 28, 2017

Measuring Social Media Polarization Using Large Language Models and Heuristic Rules

Understanding affective polarization in online discourse is crucial for evaluating the societal impact of social media interactions. This study presents a novel framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) and domain-informed heuristics to systematically analyze and quantify affective polarization in discussions on divisive topics such as climate change and gun control. Unlike most prior approaches that relied on sentiment analysis or predefined classifiers, our method integrates LLMs to extract stance, affective tone, and agreement patterns from large-scale social media discussions. We then apply a rule-based scoring system capable of quantifying affective polarization even in small conversations consisting of single interactions, based on stance alignment, emotional content, and interaction dynamics. Our analysis reveals distinct polarization patterns that are event dependent: (i) anticipation-driven polarization, where extreme polarization escalates before well-publicized events, and (ii) reactive polarization, where intense affective polarization spikes immediately after sudden, high-impact events. By combining AI-driven content annotation with domain-informed scoring, our framework offers a scalable and interpretable approach to measuring affective polarization. The source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/hasanjawad001/llm-social-media-polarization.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 1

Rethinking Personalized Reward Modeling for LLMs under Preference Heterogeneity via Group-Debiased Federated Learning

Large language models are increasingly aligned to human preferences via reward modeling, but user preference data are sensitive and often cannot be centralized. Federated learning keeps such data local while learning a shared initial reward model, which is later personalized for each client through local fine-tuning. Because users often assign opposite labels to the same pair of responses, existing federated methods address preference heterogeneity by clustering similar clients and training one reward model per group, assuming that each group requires its own initialization. We show that this assumption is unnecessary. Under balanced preference groups, a single FedAvg model, despite starting at nearly random accuracy, surpasses reward models trained separately for each ground-truth group after only a few local optimization steps. We attribute this phenomenon to the flatness of the shared initialization: averaging across all clients learns richer shared representations that distinguish responses while canceling conflicting preference directions, leaving the model near a decision boundary that can be rapidly adapted. Group imbalance breaks this effect as the cancellation becomes asymmetric and leaves minority clients too far from the boundary to recover. Motivated by this observation, we propose FedGD (Federated Learning with Group Debiasing), which discovers latent preference groups during federated training and learns a single reward model using group-debiased client sampling. By counteracting the effect of group imbalance, FedGD learns an initialization that remains highly adaptable, enabling effective personalization without prior knowledge of the underlying groups.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 2

Understanding Political Polarization via Jointly Modeling Users, Connections and Multimodal Contents on Heterogeneous Graphs

Understanding political polarization on social platforms is important as public opinions may become increasingly extreme when they are circulated in homogeneous communities, thus potentially causing damage in the real world. Automatically detecting the political ideology of social media users can help better understand political polarization. However, it is challenging due to the scarcity of ideology labels, complexity of multimodal contents, and cost of time-consuming data collection process. In this study, we adopt a heterogeneous graph neural network to jointly model user characteristics, multimodal post contents as well as user-item relations in a bipartite graph to learn a comprehensive and effective user embedding without requiring ideology labels. We apply our framework to online discussions about economy and public health topics. The learned embeddings are then used to detect political ideology and understand political polarization. Our framework outperforms the unimodal, early/late fusion baselines, and homogeneous GNN frameworks by a margin of at least 9% absolute gain in the area under the receiver operating characteristic on two social media datasets. More importantly, our work does not require a time-consuming data collection process, which allows faster detection and in turn allows the policy makers to conduct analysis and design policies in time to respond to crises. We also show that our framework learns meaningful user embeddings and can help better understand political polarization. Notable differences in user descriptions, topics, images, and levels of retweet/quote activities are observed. Our framework for decoding user-content interaction shows wide applicability in understanding political polarization. Furthermore, it can be extended to user-item bipartite information networks for other applications such as content and product recommendation.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 15, 2022

Negotiative Alignment: Embracing Disagreement to Achieve Fairer Outcomes -- Insights from Urban Studies

Urban assessments often compress diverse needs into single scores, which can obscure minority perspectives. We present a community-centered study in Montreal (n=35; wheelchair users, seniors, LGBTQIA2+ residents, and immigrants). Participants rated 20 streets (accessibility, inclusivity, aesthetics, practicality) and ranked 7 images on 12 interview-elicited criteria. Disagreement patterns were systematic in our sample: wheelchair users diverged most on accessibility and practicality; LGBTQIA2+ participants emphasized inclusion and liveliness; seniors prioritized security. Group discussion reduced information gaps but not value conflicts; ratings conveyed intensity, while rankings forced trade-offs. We then formalize negotiative alignment, a transparent, budget-aware bargaining procedure, and pilot it with role-played stakeholder agents plus a neutral mediator. Relative to the best base design under the same public rubric, the negotiated package increased total utility (21.10 to 24.55), raised the worst-group utility (3.20 to 3.90), improved twentieth percentile satisfaction (0.86 to 1.00; min-max normalized within the scenario), and reduced inequality (Gini 0.036 to 0.025). Treating disagreement as signal and reporting worst-group outcomes alongside totals may help planners and AI practitioners surface trade-offs and preserve minority priorities while maintaining efficiency.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 16, 2025

GRPO, Dr. GRPO, and DAPO Are Three Operations on One Number: The Group-Standard-Deviation Identity

Three of the most popular methods for training language models to reason look like three different tricks. They are not. All three adjust a single number: standard deviation, reflecting how much a prompt's sampled answers disagree. When such a model is trained, it answers each problem many times, and an automatic checker marks every answer right or wrong. The standard deviation of those marks measures the disagreement: largest when the answers split evenly between right and wrong, and zero when they all agree. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) divides by this number, GRPO Done Right (Dr. GRPO) drops the division, and Decoupled Clip and Dynamic Sampling Policy Optimization (DAPO) discards the groups where it is zero. Each is presented as its own fix, yet this paper proves they are three settings of one dial. That dial is not cosmetic: for right-or-wrong rewards, the disagreement is exactly the size of the training update, the group-standard-deviation identity. A split group teaches the most, while a unanimous group teaches nothing and falls silent. The same result says which problems deserve the most weight and how many tries each one needs. This paper confirms the intuition on a large real difficulty dataset (Big-Math) and in a controlled training run. What looks like a harmless normalization step is the dial that decides where learning happens and how strongly.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 29 2

Enhancing Group Fairness in Online Settings Using Oblique Decision Forests

Fairness, especially group fairness, is an important consideration in the context of machine learning systems. The most commonly adopted group fairness-enhancing techniques are in-processing methods that rely on a mixture of a fairness objective (e.g., demographic parity) and a task-specific objective (e.g., cross-entropy) during the training process. However, when data arrives in an online fashion -- one instance at a time -- optimizing such fairness objectives poses several challenges. In particular, group fairness objectives are defined using expectations of predictions across different demographic groups. In the online setting, where the algorithm has access to a single instance at a time, estimating the group fairness objective requires additional storage and significantly more computation (e.g., forward/backward passes) than the task-specific objective at every time step. In this paper, we propose Aranyani, an ensemble of oblique decision trees, to make fair decisions in online settings. The hierarchical tree structure of Aranyani enables parameter isolation and allows us to efficiently compute the fairness gradients using aggregate statistics of previous decisions, eliminating the need for additional storage and forward/backward passes. We also present an efficient framework to train Aranyani and theoretically analyze several of its properties. We conduct empirical evaluations on 5 publicly available benchmarks (including vision and language datasets) to show that Aranyani achieves a better accuracy-fairness trade-off compared to baseline approaches.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 17, 2023

Transforms for LLM Quantization: The Great Inversion and Format Co-Design

Most competitive 4-bit LLM research pipelines now open the same way: apply a linear, function-preserving transform (rotation, scaling, permutation, non-orthogonal affine) so the outlier mass sits more favorably against the group scales, and only then round. Yet we are aware of no survey dedicated to this transform stage, and its literature is quietly re-deriving an older theory. We identify and formalize the principle that organizes it, the Great Inversion: allocation-flexible coding rewards energy concentration, whereas the grouped shared-scale quantization a deployed matrix instruction performs rewards within-group flattening. Classical transform coding (1963: decorrelate, allocate bits, quantize) spends different bits per coordinate at a fixed total rate; for a Gaussian source at high rate the Karhunen-Loeve transform's concentration minimizes distortion. A deployed operand tile instead carries one absolute-maximum scale per group and equal bits everywhere, with no allocation; on a uniform grid that objective rewards flattening, approached by Hadamard incoherence. We prove that opposition under within-group majorization: the prescriptions point in opposite directions, each backed by a proof against its own objective, and for a generic spectrum no optimality guarantee transfers. A second axis is the number format: the non-uniform FP4 grid makes flattening buy less, MXFP4's power-of-two block scale still rewards a rotation confined to that block, and NVFP4's mantissa-carrying scale largely removes that pull, so the target pole depends jointly on allocation regime and format. We survey 200 works to a June 2026 cutoff; classify 43 transform methods by structure, data-awareness, searched-versus-constructed, and runtime cost; record, where reported, how they compose with GPTQ rounding; distill a first-choice guide by deployment regime; and close with the open problems it exposes.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 24