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Oct 1

Variational Inference for SDEs Driven by Fractional Noise

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 19, 2023

ABC: Any-Subset Autoregression via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

  • 6 authors
·
May 4

Chronos: A Physics-Informed Full-History Framework for Non-Markovian Long-Horizon Manipulation

General-purpose robot policies should be modeled as dynamical systems, yet many VLA and generative imitation policies still rely on present observations or short windows. This Markovian shortcut fails in memory-dependent manipulation: identical observations can demand different actions after different histories. We present Chronos, a physics-informed full-history framework for non-Markovian long-horizon manipulation. The key idea is to elevate observation history from auxiliary context to the latent state of the policy dynamics. At each physical control step, Chronos forms one state-representative token by fusing observation and proprioception, so the token sequence is aligned one-to-one with physical time. A selective state space model propagates this causal historical state, which conditions a multimodal coarse action prior through implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE). This prior is then refined by a second-order Schrodinger-inspired bridge that predicts acceleration fields, yielding smoother and more physically grounded robot motion. Across 16 simulated tasks and 4 real-world experiments, Chronos is evaluated on precision insertion, general manipulation, and memory-dependent long-horizon control. On RMBench, where success requires remembering task phase, Chronos achieves 73.6% average success, outperforming Markovian VLA baseline pi0.5 by +62.4 percentage points, a 6.6x relative gain, while using 10x fewer parameters. It also surpasses the memory VLA Mem-0 by 22.8 points while using over 30x fewer parameters. In real-world dual-arm experiments using a single RGB camera, Chronos achieves 78% average success over four tasks, including 72% on the three memory-dependent tasks, whereas pi0.5 achieves 7% overall and 0% on the memory-dependent subset. These results suggest that history should not be treated as auxiliary context, but as the latent state of the manipulation policy.

  • 12 authors
·
Jun 28

Foundation Inference Models for Markov Jump Processes

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 10, 2024

Physics-guided Deep Markov Models for Learning Nonlinear Dynamical Systems with Uncertainty

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic physics-guided framework, termed Physics-guided Deep Markov Model (PgDMM). The framework targets the inference of the characteristics and latent structure of nonlinear dynamical systems from measurement data, where exact inference of latent variables is typically intractable. A recently surfaced option pertains to leveraging variational inference to perform approximate inference. In such a scheme, transition and emission functions of the system are parameterized via feed-forward neural networks (deep generative models). However, due to the generalized and highly versatile formulation of neural network functions, the learned latent space often lacks physical interpretation and structured representation. To address this, we bridge physics-based state space models with Deep Markov Models, thus delivering a hybrid modeling framework for unsupervised learning and identification of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed framework takes advantage of the expressive power of deep learning, while retaining the driving physics of the dynamical system by imposing physics-driven restrictions on the side of the latent space. We demonstrate the benefits of such a fusion in terms of achieving improved performance on illustrative simulation examples and experimental case studies of nonlinear systems. Our results indicate that the physics-based models involved in the employed transition and emission functions essentially enforce a more structured and physically interpretable latent space, which is essential for enhancing and generalizing the predictive capabilities of deep learning-based models.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 16, 2021

Diffusion limits of cyclic finite-velocity random motions along vector fields

We investigate diffusion approximations for a class of multivariate inhomogeneous finite-velocity random motions motivated by models of active particles. A particle alternates cyclically among prescribed velocity fields V_1,dots,V_p with random run times and evolves according to either a flight dynamics, consisting of piecewise-linear motion, or a gliding dynamics, in which the particle follows the corresponding velocity flow. Under a Kac-type scaling that couples vanishing run times with diverging particle speed, we prove weak convergence of both processes to multidimensional diffusions. It turns out that the order of successive cyclic motions affects the diffusion limit. In addition to the second-order term generated by fluctuations of the random run times, the limiting drift contains directional derivatives DV_i[V_j] of the underlying vector fields. In Stratonovich form, part of this drift is expressed through their Lie brackets [V_i,V_j]. Thus, the generic non-commutativity of the microscopic motions survives the diffusive scaling and generates a macroscopic drift which depends on the cyclic order. The limiting drift also distinguishes the flight and gliding dynamics, despite their being driven by the same vector fields and run times. Several examples, including run-and-reverse motion and cyclic dynamics generated by multiple vector fields, illustrate how the cyclic switching protocol and the geometry of the underlying velocity fields shape the limiting diffusions.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 30 1

Mechanistic Interpretability of RNNs emulating Hidden Markov Models

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide a powerful approach in neuroscience to infer latent dynamics in neural populations and to generate hypotheses about the neural computations underlying behavior. However, past work has focused on relatively simple, input-driven, and largely deterministic behaviors - little is known about the mechanisms that would allow RNNs to generate the richer, spontaneous, and potentially stochastic behaviors observed in natural settings. Modeling with Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) has revealed a segmentation of natural behaviors into discrete latent states with stochastic transitions between them, a type of dynamics that may appear at odds with the continuous state spaces implemented by RNNs. Here we first show that RNNs can replicate HMM emission statistics and then reverse-engineer the trained networks to uncover the mechanisms they implement. In the absence of inputs, the activity of trained RNNs collapses towards a single fixed point. When driven by stochastic input, trajectories instead exhibit noise-sustained dynamics along closed orbits. Rotation along these orbits modulates the emission probabilities and is governed by transitions between regions of slow, noise-driven dynamics connected by fast, deterministic transitions. The trained RNNs develop highly structured connectivity, with a small set of "kick neurons" initiating transitions between these regions. This mechanism emerges during training as the network shifts into a regime of stochastic resonance, enabling it to perform probabilistic computations. Analyses across multiple HMM architectures - fully connected, cyclic, and linear-chain - reveal that this solution generalizes through the modular reuse of the same dynamical motif, suggesting a compositional principle by which RNNs can emulate complex discrete latent dynamics.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 29, 2025

Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics Revisited

The statistical mechanics of Gibbs is a juxtaposition of subjective, probabilistic ideas on the one hand and objective, mechanical ideas on the other. In this paper, we follow the path set out by Jaynes, including elements added subsequently to that original work, to explore the consequences of the purely statistical point of view. We show how standard methods in the equilibrium theory could have been derived simply from a description of the available problem information. In addition, our presentation leads to novel insights into questions associated with symmetry and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. Two surprising consequences to be explored in further work are that (in)distinguishability factors are automatically predicted from the problem formulation and that a quantity related to the thermodynamic entropy production is found by considering information loss in non-equilibrium processes. Using the problem of ion channel thermodynamics as an example, we illustrate the idea of building up complexity by successively adding information to create progressively more complex descriptions of a physical system. Our result is that such statistical mechanical descriptions can be used to create transparent, computable, experimentally-relevant models that may be informed by more detailed atomistic simulations. We also derive a theory for the kinetic behavior of this system, identifying the nonequilibrium `process' free energy functional. The Gibbs relation for this functional is a fluctuation-dissipation theorem applicable arbitrarily far from equilibrium, that captures the effect of non-local and time-dependent behavior from transient driving forces. Based on this work, it is clear that statistical mechanics is a general tool for constructing the relationships between constraints on system information.

  • 3 authors
·
May 27, 2011

Langevin Flows for Modeling Neural Latent Dynamics

Neural populations exhibit latent dynamical structures that drive time-evolving spiking activities, motivating the search for models that capture both intrinsic network dynamics and external unobserved influences. In this work, we introduce LangevinFlow, a sequential Variational Auto-Encoder where the time evolution of latent variables is governed by the underdamped Langevin equation. Our approach incorporates physical priors -- such as inertia, damping, a learned potential function, and stochastic forces -- to represent both autonomous and non-autonomous processes in neural systems. Crucially, the potential function is parameterized as a network of locally coupled oscillators, biasing the model toward oscillatory and flow-like behaviors observed in biological neural populations. Our model features a recurrent encoder, a one-layer Transformer decoder, and Langevin dynamics in the latent space. Empirically, our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic neural populations generated by a Lorenz attractor, closely matching ground-truth firing rates. On the Neural Latents Benchmark (NLB), the model achieves superior held-out neuron likelihoods (bits per spike) and forward prediction accuracy across four challenging datasets. It also matches or surpasses alternative methods in decoding behavioral metrics such as hand velocity. Overall, this work introduces a flexible, physics-inspired, high-performing framework for modeling complex neural population dynamics and their unobserved influences.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 15, 2025

Autoregressive Transformer Neural Network for Simulating Open Quantum Systems via a Probabilistic Formulation

The theory of open quantum systems lays the foundations for a substantial part of modern research in quantum science and engineering. Rooted in the dimensionality of their extended Hilbert spaces, the high computational complexity of simulating open quantum systems calls for the development of strategies to approximate their dynamics. In this paper, we present an approach for tackling open quantum system dynamics. Using an exact probabilistic formulation of quantum physics based on positive operator-valued measure (POVM), we compactly represent quantum states with autoregressive transformer neural networks; such networks bring significant algorithmic flexibility due to efficient exact sampling and tractable density. We further introduce the concept of String States to partially restore the symmetry of the autoregressive transformer neural network and improve the description of local correlations. Efficient algorithms have been developed to simulate the dynamics of the Liouvillian superoperator using a forward-backward trapezoid method and find the steady state via a variational formulation. Our approach is benchmarked on prototypical one and two-dimensional systems, finding results which closely track the exact solution and achieve higher accuracy than alternative approaches based on using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample restricted Boltzmann machines. Our work provides general methods for understanding quantum dynamics in various contexts, as well as techniques for solving high-dimensional probabilistic differential equations in classical setups.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 11, 2020

Multi-marginal Schrödinger Bridges with Iterative Reference Refinement

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 12, 2024

A Topological and Operator Algebraic Framework for Asynchronous Lattice Dynamical Systems

I introduce a novel mathematical framework integrating topological dynamics, operator algebras, and ergodic geometry to study lattices of asynchronous metric dynamical systems. Each node in the lattice carries an internal flow represented by a one-parameter family of operators, evolving on its own time scale. I formalize stratified state spaces capturing multiple levels of synchronized behavior, define an asynchronous evolution metric that quantifies phase-offset distances between subsystems, and characterize emergent coherent topologies arising when subsystems synchronize. Within this framework, I develop formal operators for the evolution of each subsystem and give precise conditions under which phase-aligned synchronization occurs across the lattice. The main results include: (1) the existence and uniqueness of coherent (synchronized) states under a contractive coupling condition, (2) stability of these coherent states and criteria for their emergence as a collective phase transition in a continuous operator topology, and (3) the influence of symmetries, with group-invariant coupling leading to flow-invariant synchrony subspaces and structured cluster dynamics. Proofs are given for each theorem, demonstrating full mathematical rigor. In a final section, I discuss hypothetical applications of this framework to symbolic lattice systems (e.g. subshifts), to invariant group actions on dynamical lattices, and to operator fields over stratified manifolds in the spirit of noncommutative geometry. Throughout, I write in the first person to emphasize the exploratory nature of this work. The paper avoids any reference to cosmology or observers, focusing instead on clean, formal mathematics suitable for a broad array of dynamical systems.

  • 1 authors
·
May 14, 2025

SuperLocalMemory V3: Information-Geometric Foundations for Zero-LLM Enterprise Agent Memory

Persistent memory is a central capability for AI agents, yet the mathematical foundations of memory retrieval, lifecycle management, and consistency remain unexplored. Current systems employ cosine similarity for retrieval, heuristic decay for salience, and provide no formal contradiction detection. We establish information-geometric foundations through three contributions. First, a retrieval metric derived from the Fisher information structure of diagonal Gaussian families, satisfying Riemannian metric axioms, invariant under sufficient statistics, and computable in O(d) time. Second, memory lifecycle formulated as Riemannian Langevin dynamics with proven existence and uniqueness of the stationary distribution via the Fokker-Planck equation, replacing hand-tuned decay with principled convergence guarantees. Third, a cellular sheaf model where non-trivial first cohomology classes correspond precisely to irreconcilable contradictions across memory contexts. On the LoCoMo benchmark, the mathematical layers yield +12.7 percentage points over engineering baselines across six conversations, reaching +19.9 pp on the most challenging dialogues. A four-channel retrieval architecture achieves 75% accuracy without cloud dependency. Cloud-augmented results reach 87.7%. A zero-LLM configuration satisfies EU AI Act data sovereignty requirements by architectural design. To our knowledge, this is the first work establishing information-geometric, sheaf-theoretic, and stochastic-dynamical foundations for AI agent memory systems.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 15 2

Bidirectional Representations Augmented Autoregressive Biological Sequence Generation:Application in De Novo Peptide Sequencing

Autoregressive (AR) models, common in sequence generation, are limited in many biological tasks such as de novo peptide sequencing and protein modeling by their unidirectional nature, failing to capture crucial global bidirectional token dependencies. Non-Autoregressive (NAR) models offer holistic, bidirectional representations but face challenges with generative coherence and scalability. To transcend this, we propose a hybrid framework enhancing AR generation by dynamically integrating rich contextual information from non-autoregressive mechanisms. Our approach couples a shared input encoder with two decoders: a non-autoregressive one learning latent bidirectional biological features, and an AR decoder synthesizing the biological sequence by leveraging these bidirectional features. A novel cross-decoder attention module enables the AR decoder to iteratively query and integrate these bidirectional features, enriching its predictions. This synergy is cultivated via a tailored training strategy with importance annealing for balanced objectives and cross-decoder gradient blocking for stable, focused learning. Evaluations on a demanding nine-species benchmark of de novo peptide sequencing show that our model substantially surpasses AR and NAR baselines. It uniquely harmonizes AR stability with NAR contextual awareness, delivering robust, superior performance on diverse downstream data. This research advances biological sequence modeling techniques and contributes a novel architectural paradigm for augmenting AR models with enhanced bidirectional understanding for complex sequence generation. Code is available at https://github.com/BEAM-Labs/denovo.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 9, 2025

Controlling Long-Horizon Behavior in Language Model Agents with Explicit State Dynamics

Large language model (LLM) agents often exhibit abrupt shifts in tone and persona during extended interaction, reflecting the absence of explicit temporal structure governing agent-level state. While prior work emphasizes turn-local sentiment or static emotion classification, the role of explicit affective dynamics in shaping long-horizon agent behavior remains underexplored. This work investigates whether imposing dynamical structure on an external affective state can induce temporal coherence and controlled recovery in multi-turn dialogue. We introduce an agent-level affective subsystem that maintains a continuous Valence-Arousal-Dominance (VAD) state external to the language model and governed by first- and second-order update rules. Instantaneous affective signals are extracted using a fixed, memoryless estimator and integrated over time via exponential smoothing or momentum-based dynamics. The resulting affective state is injected back into generation without modifying model parameters. Using a fixed 25-turn dialogue protocol, we compare stateless, first-order, and second-order affective dynamics. Stateless agents fail to exhibit coherent trajectories or recovery, while state persistence enables delayed responses and reliable recovery. Second-order dynamics introduce affective inertia and hysteresis that increase with momentum, revealing a trade-off between stability and responsiveness.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 22

Fluctuations and correlations in chemical reaction kinetics and population dynamics

This chapter provides a pedagogical introduction and overview of spatial and temporal correlation and fluctuation effects resulting from the fundamentally stochastic kinetics underlying chemical reactions and the dynamics of populations or epidemics. After reviewing the assumptions and mean-field type approximations involved in the construction of chemical rate equations for uniform reactant densities, we first discuss spatial clustering in birth-death systems, where non-linearities are introduced through either density-limiting pair reactions, or equivalently via local imposition of finite carrying capacities. The competition of offspring production, death, and non-linear inhibition induces a population extinction threshold, which represents a non-equilibrium phase transition that separates active from absorbing states. This continuous transition is characterized by the universal scaling exponents of critical directed percolation clusters. Next we focus on the emergence of depletion zones in single-species annihilation processes and spatial population segregation with the associated reaction fronts in two-species pair annihilation. These strong (anti-)correlation effects are dynamically generated by the underlying stochastic kinetics. Finally, we address noise-induced and fluctuation-stabilized spatio-temporal patterns in basic predator-prey systems, exemplified by spreading activity fronts in the two-species Lotka-Volterra model as well as spiral structures in the May-Leonard variant of cyclically competing three-species systems akin to rock-paper-scissors games.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 3, 2018

Dynamical phase diagram of synchronization in one dimension: universal behavior from Edwards-Wilkinson to random deposition through Kardar-Parisi-Zhang

Synchronization in one dimension displays generic scale invariance with universal properties previously observed in surface kinetic roughening and the wider context of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) universality class. This has been established for phase oscillators and also for some limit-cycle oscillators, both in the presence of columnar (quenched) disorder and of time-dependent noise, by extensive numerical simulations, and has been analytically motivated by continuum approximations in the strong oscillator coupling limit. The robustness and the precise boundaries in parameter space for such critical behavior remain unclear, however, which may preclude further developments, including the extension of these results to higher dimensions and the experimental observation of nonequilibrium criticality in synchronizing (e.g.~electronic or chemical) oscillators. We here present complete numerical phase diagrams of one-dimensional synchronization, including saturation times and values, but, most importantly, also dynamical features giving insight into the gradual emergence of synchronous dynamics, based on systems of phase oscillators with either type of randomness. In the absence of synchronization, the dynamics evolves as expected for random deposition (for time-dependent noise) or linear growth (for columnar disorder), while a crossover from Edwards-Wilkinson to Kardar-Parisi-Zhang behavior (with the corresponding type of randomness) is observed as the randomness strength, or the nonoddity of the coupling among oscillators, is increased in the synchronous region -- their combined effect being partially captured by the so-called KPZ coupling. The distortion of scaling due to phase slips near the desynchronization boundary, a feature that is likely to play a role in experimental contexts, is also discussed.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 6

Stochastic Interpolants: A Unifying Framework for Flows and Diffusions

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 15, 2023

ODEWorld: A Continuous Predictive Architecture via Physical-Time Flow

In the physical world we inhabit, space and time are fundamentally continuous. However, existing machine learning paradigms for world modeling are largely confined to discrete-time prediction, thereby exhibiting significant inefficiency in capturing the dynamics of physical world. We introduce Physical-Time Flow (PT-Flow), a novel approach that learns a continuous latent velocity field operating in physical time. Crucially, the underlying dynamics of sequential data are parameterized by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) embedded in a well-structured representation space. Under this paradigm, the prediction of future can be recast as temporal integration via an ODE solver in the compressed latent space. Building upon PT-Flow, we construct ODEWorld, a continuous-time latent world model that is both efficient and versatile. By extracting time-variant features and enforcing ODE properties on both the dynamical representation space and the latent velocity field, ODEWorld effectively addresses the long-standing representation collapse issue in latent world model literature. This also enables high-quality image reconstruction even after long-horizon prediction. Moreover, its continuous nature allows for arbitrary temporal resolution and even backward prediction, which is impossible for most discrete-time models. Lastly, ODEWorld can provide rich planning-oriented information to facilitate downstream policy learning. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that ODEWorld successfully reconciles planning-conducive dynamics abstraction with visual realism, excelling in both video generation and robotic control. https://dstate.github.io/odeworld_website/{Project Website}.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 29 2

Mamba Integrated with Physics Principles Masters Long-term Chaotic System Forecasting

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems from short-term observations remains a fundamental and underexplored challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Existing approaches often rely on long-term training data or focus on short-term sequence correlations, struggling to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. We propose PhyxMamba, a novel framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to capture the underlying dynamics of chaotic systems. By reconstructing the attractor manifold from brief observations using time-delay embeddings, PhyxMamba extracts global dynamical features essential for accurate forecasting. Our generative training scheme enables Mamba to replicate the physical process, augmented by multi-token prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing prediction accuracy and preserving key statistical invariants. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior long-term forecasting and faithfully captures essential dynamical invariants from short-term data. This framework opens new avenues for reliably predicting chaotic systems under observation-scarce conditions, with broad implications across climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, and beyond. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PhyxMamba.

  • 5 authors
·
May 29, 2025

State and parameter learning with PaRIS particle Gibbs

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 2, 2023

Chaos as an interpretable benchmark for forecasting and data-driven modelling

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 11, 2021

Memory as Plans: World-Action Modeling with Memory-Grounded Planning

Mainstream robotic policies often adopt a Markovian formulation, but many complex real-world manipulation tasks are inherently non-Markovian, requiring long-horizon memory beyond the current observation. Existing memory mechanisms often rely on language summaries, growing visual windows, or their combinations, and may therefore lose fine-grained visual evidence or face a trade-off between history coverage and execution efficiency. We introduce MaP-WAM, a Memory-as-Plans framework that decomposes memory-dependent world-action modeling into memory-grounded planning and plan-conditioned execution, and uses long-term multimodal episodic context as planning-time evidence rather than repeatedly conditioning the executor on the full history. MaP-WAM represents memory as completed segment records containing language instructions and sparse visual context, and converts this episodic memory into compact plans comprising the next segment-level language plan and corresponding visual guidance. A World-Action-Progress (WAP) model executes each plan over an unknown duration by jointly predicting action chunks and corresponding execution progress at inference time, calibrating predicted progress through plan-observation alignment for adaptive segment transitions and closed-loop context updates. MaP-WAM keeps the executor context length fixed, while structured attention further enables key-value caching in both planning and execution. MaP-WAM achieves state-of-the-art performance on RMBench with an 83.3% success rate and attains 78.0% success on real-robot tasks, while maintaining approximately constant executor inference latency as task history grows.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 9 2

The Geometry of Semantic Space: A Continuous Geometric Framework for the Transformer Architecture

We present a continuous geometric framework that models the discrete algebraic operations of the Transformer architecture as an integro-differential equation (IDE) on a semantic fiber bundle calE = calM times R^d. Beginning from a single geometric axiom -- that the token sequence forms a discrete 1-manifold equipped with a canonical measure lattice -- we translate every core component of the modern Transformer (RMSNorm, RoPE, Softmax Attention, FFN, Residual Stream, SGD, Weight Decay) into a cohesive vocabulary of differential geometry, measure theory, and stochastic calculus. The resulting framework yields quantitative predictions spanning entropic optimal transport (Attention as a Schrödinger bridge) and non-equilibrium thermodynamics (SGD as Itô diffusion violating detailed balance). We conduct a six-part experimental campaign across five architectures (Qwen3, LLaMA\nobreakdash-3.1, Gemma\nobreakdash-3, GPT-2, Mistral) spanning 124M to 8B parameters. The empirical observables are quantitatively consistent with the geometric predictions: the ε^{-1/2} Lipschitz scaling calibration at machine precision (R^2 = 1.000), the Lie--Trotter operator-splitting torsion, the symmetric ablation instability confirming the Dual-Law of Topological Stability, the calO(1/k) thermodynamic suppression of Poincaré recurrence on the RoPE torus, the thermodynamic context-limit phase transition, and the Non-Equilibrium Steady State parameter vortex -- verified across two optimizers (AdamW and Pure SGD) to exclude momentum artifacts. The results demonstrate that analyzing Transformers through the lens of continuous stochastic differential geometry provides a predictive descriptive vocabulary for the stability limits, context bounds, and optimization dynamics of Large Language Models.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 18 2

Koopa: Learning Non-stationary Time Series Dynamics with Koopman Predictors

Real-world time series are characterized by intrinsic non-stationarity that poses a principal challenge for deep forecasting models. While previous models suffer from complicated series variations induced by changing temporal distribution, we tackle non-stationary time series with modern Koopman theory that fundamentally considers the underlying time-variant dynamics. Inspired by Koopman theory of portraying complex dynamical systems, we disentangle time-variant and time-invariant components from intricate non-stationary series by Fourier Filter and design Koopman Predictor to advance respective dynamics forward. Technically, we propose Koopa as a novel Koopman forecaster composed of stackable blocks that learn hierarchical dynamics. Koopa seeks measurement functions for Koopman embedding and utilizes Koopman operators as linear portraits of implicit transition. To cope with time-variant dynamics that exhibits strong locality, Koopa calculates context-aware operators in the temporal neighborhood and is able to utilize incoming ground truth to scale up forecast horizon. Besides, by integrating Koopman Predictors into deep residual structure, we ravel out the binding reconstruction loss in previous Koopman forecasters and achieve end-to-end forecasting objective optimization. Compared with the state-of-the-art model, Koopa achieves competitive performance while saving 77.3% training time and 76.0% memory.

  • 4 authors
·
May 30, 2023

One More Time: Revisiting Neural Quantum States from a Reinforcement Learning Perspective

Neural quantum states (NQS) provide a flexible and scalable framework for approximating quantum many-body wavefunctions. Among NQS parameterizations, autoregressive models are especially attractive because they enable exact, independent sampling from the Born distribution, avoiding the autocorrelation and mixing issues of Markov chain methods. Yet their optimization remains comparatively underexplored: Adam is a scalable method but ignores function space geometry, while stochastic reconfiguration is principled but costly and numerically fragile in large models. To address this gap, we show that variational energy minimization can be viewed as an advantage policy-gradient problem over the Born distribution, motivating trust-region optimization for NQS training. We introduce Proximal Wavefunction Optimization (PWO), a principled trust-region algorithm that clips probability-ratio changes in the amplitude channel and phase increments in the phase channel. PWO avoids explicit matrix inversion, reuses samples across multiple updates, and combines the scalability of first-order optimization with theoretical guarantees. Across Ising and frustrated J_1-J_2 one- and two-dimensional spin systems, PWO improves stability and wall-clock convergence over Adam, minSR, and SPRING. Finally, we fine-tune a 1.5B-parameter RWKV-7 model, demonstrating NQS optimization at a scale over three orders of magnitude beyond prior work.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 1

Validity conditions for moment closure approximations in stochastic chemical kinetics

Approximations based on moment-closure (MA) are commonly used to obtain estimates of the mean molecule numbers and of the variance of fluctuations in the number of molecules of chemical systems. The advantage of this approach is that it can be far less computationally expensive than exact stochastic simulations of the chemical master equation. Here we numerically study the conditions under which the MA equations yield results reflecting the true stochastic dynamics of the system. We show that for bistable and oscillatory chemical systems with deterministic initial conditions, the solution of the MA equations can be interpreted as a valid approximation to the true moments of the CME, only when the steady-state mean molecule numbers obtained from the chemical master equation fall within a certain finite range. The same validity criterion for monostable systems implies that the steady-state mean molecule numbers obtained from the chemical master equation must be above a certain threshold. For mean molecule numbers outside of this range of validity, the MA equations lead to either qualitatively wrong oscillatory dynamics or to unphysical predictions such as negative variances in the molecule numbers or multiple steady-state moments of the stationary distribution as the initial conditions are varied. Our results clarify the range of validity of the MA approach and show that pitfalls in the interpretation of the results can only be overcome through the systematic comparison of the solutions of the MA equations of a certain order with those of higher orders.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 31, 2014