Daily Papers

With more open-source models available for diverse tasks, model merging has gained attention by combining models into one, reducing training, storage, and inference costs. Current research mainly focuses on model merging for full fine-tuning, overlooking the popular LoRA. However, our empirical analysis reveals that: a) existing merging methods designed for full fine-tuning perform poorly on LoRA; b) LoRA modules show much larger parameter magnitude variance than full fine-tuned weights; c) greater parameter magnitude variance correlates with worse merging performance. Considering that large magnitude variances cause deviations in the distribution of the merged parameters, resulting in information loss and performance degradation, we propose a Decoupled and Orthogonal merging approach(DO-Merging). By separating parameters into magnitude and direction components and merging them independently, we reduce the impact of magnitude differences on the directional alignment of the merged models, thereby preserving task information. Furthermore, we introduce a data-free, layer-wise gradient descent method with orthogonal constraints to mitigate interference during the merging of direction components. We provide theoretical guarantees for both the decoupling and orthogonal components. And we validate through extensive experiments across vision, language, and multi-modal domains that our proposed DO-Merging can achieve significantly higher performance than existing merging methods at a minimal cost. Notably, each component can be flexibly integrated with existing methods, offering near free-lunch improvements across tasks.

Prior studies in learned image compression (LIC) consistently show that only a small subset of latent channels is critical for reconstruction, while many others carry limited information. Exploiting this imbalance could improve both coding and computational efficiency, yet existing approaches often rely on costly, dataset-specific ablation tests and typically analyze channels in isolation, ignoring their interdependencies. We propose a generalizable, dataset-agnostic method to identify and organize important channels in pretrained VAE-based LIC models. Instead of brute-force empirical evaluations, our approach leverages intrinsic parameter statistics-weight variances, bias magnitudes, and pairwise correlations-to estimate channel importance. This analysis reveals a consistent organizational structure, termed the Invariant Salient Channel Space (ISCS), where Salient-Core channels capture dominant structures and Salient-Auxiliary channels provide complementary details. Building on ISCS, we introduce a deterministic channel ordering and grouping strategy that enables slice-parallel decoding, reduces redundancy, and improves bitrate efficiency. Experiments across multiple LIC architectures demonstrate that our method effectively reduces bitrate and computation while maintaining reconstruction quality, providing a practical and modular enhancement to existing learned compression frameworks.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

Magnitude of a finite metric space and the related notion of magnitude functions on metric spaces is an active area of research in algebraic topology. Magnitude originally arose in the context of biology, where it represents the number of effective species in an environment; when applied to a one-parameter family of metric spaces tX with scale parameter t, the magnitude captures much of the underlying geometry of the space. Prior work has mostly focussed on properties of magnitude in a global sense; in this paper we restrict the sets to finite subsets of Euclidean space and investigate its individual components. We give an explicit formula for the corrected inclusion-exclusion principle, and define a quantity associated with each point, called the moment which gives an intrinsic ordering to the points. We exploit this in order to form an algorithm which approximates the convex hull.

Diffusion models trained on different, non-overlapping subsets of a dataset often produce strikingly similar outputs when given the same noise seed. We trace this consistency to a simple linear effect: the shared Gaussian statistics across splits already predict much of the generated images. To formalize this, we develop a random matrix theory (RMT) framework that quantifies how finite datasets shape the expectation and variance of the learned denoiser and sampling map in the linear setting. For expectations, sampling variability acts as a renormalization of the noise level through a self-consistent relation σ^2 mapsto κ(σ^2), explaining why limited data overshrink low-variance directions and pull samples toward the dataset mean. For fluctuations, our variance formulas reveal three key factors behind cross-split disagreement: anisotropy across eigenmodes, inhomogeneity across inputs, and overall scaling with dataset size. Extending deterministic-equivalence tools to fractional matrix powers further allows us to analyze entire sampling trajectories. The theory sharply predicts the behavior of linear diffusion models, and we validate its predictions on UNet and DiT architectures in their non-memorization regime, identifying where and how samples deviates across training data split. This provides a principled baseline for reproducibility in diffusion training, linking spectral properties of data to the stability of generative outputs.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by maximizing the logarithm of the likelihood function under the observed data. In this work, we examine this approach and identify potential hazards associated with the use of log-likelihood in conjunction with gradient-based optimizers. First, we present a synthetic example illustrating how this approach can lead to very poor but stable parameter estimates. Second, we identify the culprit to be the log-likelihood loss, along with certain conditions that exacerbate the issue. Third, we present an alternative formulation, termed β-NLL, in which each data point's contribution to the loss is weighted by the β-exponentiated variance estimate. We show that using an appropriate β largely mitigates the issue in our illustrative example. Fourth, we evaluate this approach on a range of domains and tasks and show that it achieves considerable improvements and performs more robustly concerning hyperparameters, both in predictive RMSE and log-likelihood criteria.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

The redshifted 21-cm signal is a unique probe of the early universe, particularly the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). While the 21-cm power spectrum has been the primary statistic for parameter inference, it fails to capture the non-Gaussian information in the signal, motivating the use of higher-order statistics such as the bispectrum. We perform a rigorous cross-simulation validation to infer the mean neutral hydrogen fraction (x_{HI}) by training a Bayesian neural network on 21cmFAST simulations and applying it to mock observations generated by ReionYuga code. Our analysis spans six redshifts and includes realistic SKA system noise and cosmic variance, calculated from 50 statistically independent realizations. We find that the bispectrum adds useful information, but the improvement is moderate, with constraints tightened by sim 1.4times the power-spectrum only case. The cross-simulation analysis also identifies a persistent systematic discrepancy between inferred and true values that often exceeds the statistical uncertainties, implying that modeling uncertainty remains the dominant limitation. Our results, therefore, indicate that the highly stringent constraints obtained in same-code validation studies may be overly optimistic, and mitigating cross-model systematics is crucial for robust parameter inference in the SKA era.

Safety performance evaluation is critical for developing and deploying connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). One prevailing way is to design testing scenarios using prior knowledge of CAVs, test CAVs in these scenarios, and then evaluate their safety performances. However, significant differences between CAVs and prior knowledge could severely reduce the evaluation efficiency. Towards addressing this issue, most existing studies focus on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process, but so far they cannot be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the adaptive safety performance evaluation by leveraging the testing results, after the CAV testing process. It can significantly improve the evaluation efficiency and be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. Specifically, instead of directly evaluating the unknown quantity (e.g., crash rates) of CAV safety performances, we evaluate the differences between the unknown quantity and known quantity (i.e., control variates). By leveraging the testing results, the control variates could be well designed and optimized such that the differences are close to zero, so the evaluation variance could be dramatically reduced for different CAVs. To handle the high-dimensional scenarios, we propose the sparse control variates method, where the control variates are designed only for the sparse and critical variables of scenarios. According to the number of critical variables in each scenario, the control variates are stratified into strata and optimized within each stratum using multiple linear regression techniques. We justify the proposed method's effectiveness by rigorous theoretical analysis and empirical study of high-dimensional overtaking scenarios.

Deep learning has recently revealed the existence of scaling laws, demonstrating that model performance follows predictable trends based on dataset and model sizes. Inspired by these findings and fascinating phenomena emerging in the over-parameterized regime, we examine a parallel direction: do similar scaling laws govern predictive uncertainties in deep learning? In identifiable parametric models, such scaling laws can be derived in a straightforward manner by treating model parameters in a Bayesian way. In this case, for example, we obtain O(1/N) contraction rates for epistemic uncertainty with respect to the number of data N. However, in over-parameterized models, these guarantees do not hold, leading to largely unexplored behaviors. In this work, we empirically show the existence of scaling laws associated with various measures of predictive uncertainty with respect to dataset and model sizes. Through experiments on vision and language tasks, we observe such scaling laws for in- and out-of-distribution predictive uncertainty estimated through popular approximate Bayesian inference and ensemble methods. Besides the elegance of scaling laws and the practical utility of extrapolating uncertainties to larger data or models, this work provides strong evidence to dispel recurring skepticism against Bayesian approaches: "In many applications of deep learning we have so much data available: what do we need Bayes for?". Our findings show that "so much data" is typically not enough to make epistemic uncertainty negligible.

Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance. By analysing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), we show that this characterization is incomplete: while MFVI underestimates the variance in parameter space, it can overestimate the predictive variance compared to the exact posterior. We show that if the MFVI posterior underestimates predictive variances in some directions, it necessarily overestimates them in others. Crucially, this overestimation occurs in directions where the training data concentrates. This leads to the surprising result that, for a test point drawn from the training distribution, MFVI's expected predictive variance exceeds that of the exact posterior. We demonstrate a pathological case of this effect, where the MFVI posterior fails to reduce predictive variance compared to the prior on in distribution data. We connect these results to the Cold Posterior Effect, arguing that varying the temperature can correct this overestimation, yielding predictions closer to those of the exact posterior. We validate our theory on synthetic and real-world regression tasks.

Recent innovations on hardware (e.g. Nvidia A100) have motivated learning N:M structured sparsity masks from scratch for fast model inference. However, state-of-the-art learning recipes in this regime (e.g. SR-STE) are proposed for non-adaptive optimizers like momentum SGD, while incurring non-trivial accuracy drop for Adam-trained models like attention-based LLMs. In this paper, we first demonstrate such gap origins from poorly estimated second moment (i.e. variance) in Adam states given by the masked weights. We conjecture that learning N:M masks with Adam should take the critical regime of variance estimation into account. In light of this, we propose STEP, an Adam-aware recipe that learns N:M masks with two phases: first, STEP calculates a reliable variance estimate (precondition phase) and subsequently, the variance remains fixed and is used as a precondition to learn N:M masks (mask-learning phase). STEP automatically identifies the switching point of two phases by dynamically sampling variance changes over the training trajectory and testing the sample concentration. Empirically, we evaluate STEP and other baselines such as ASP and SR-STE on multiple tasks including CIFAR classification, machine translation and LLM fine-tuning (BERT-Base, GPT-2). We show STEP mitigates the accuracy drop of baseline recipes and is robust to aggressive structured sparsity ratios.

Mixed-precision quantization must decide which parts of a model to keep at higher precision. A common premise, shared by sensitivity-based methods such as HAWQ and CoopQ, is that the loss from quantizing a set of layers can be reconstructed from per-layer or pairwise sensitivities measured in isolation. We test this premise at the 4-bit weight-and-activation precisions now being deployed, treating the change in loss f(S) from quantizing a layer set S as a set function on the Boolean cube and analyzing it through two classical changes of basis. This analysis yields two findings. First, across configurations drawn from the deployment distribution, 85--93\% of the variance of f is explained by per-layer effects alone. Second, a monotone transform of a sum of per-layer terms reproduces f's ranking of configurations, misordering at most 2\% of pairs. We propose the coverage model f(S)=cbigl(1-prod_{iin S}(1-a_i)bigr), which reproduces the measured variance profile of f to within a few percent from its L fitted break-rates. This structure supports two predictors of a configuration's loss, each with L+1 parameters. The additive model is the optimal first-order predictor. By Parseval's identity its mean-squared error equals the variance of f left unexplained by per-layer effects, which we measure on full lattices, estimate out of sample at full-network scale, and report with every result as a certificate of how well any additive model can do. The coverage model itself is the second predictor. As allocators at matched memory, they attain the lowest KL divergence among the compared allocators on models from 30B to 355B parameters. Below four bits, the resulting allocations continue to solve code and reasoning tasks at budgets where allocations from gradient sensitivities no longer produce terminating generations.

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

Reinforcement learning is structurally harder than supervised learning because the policy changes the data distribution it learns from. The resulting fragility is especially visible in large-model training, where the training and rollout systems differ in numerical precision, sampling, and other implementation details. Existing methods manage this fragility by adding hyper-parameters to the training objective, which makes the algorithm more sensitive to its configuration and requires retuning whenever the task, model scale, or distribution mismatch changes. This fragility traces to two concerns that current objectives entangle through hyper-parameters set before training begins: a trust-region concern, that updates should not move the policy too far from its current value, and an off-policy concern, that data from older or different behavior policies should influence the update only to the extent that it remains reliable. Neither concern is a constant to set in advance, and their severity is reflected in the policy-ratio distribution of the current batch. We present a simple yet effective batch-adaptive objective that replaces fixed clipping with the normalized effective sample size of the policy ratios. The same statistic caps the score-function weight and sets the strength of an off-policy regularizer, so the update stays close to the usual on-policy score-function update when ratios are nearly uniform, and tightens automatically when stale or mismatched data cause ratio concentration, while retaining a nonzero learning signal on high-ratio tokens. Experiments across a wide range of settings show that our method matches or exceeds tuned baselines, introducing no new objective hyper-parameters and removing several existing ones. The code is available at https://github.com/FeynRL-project/FeynRL.

Benchmarks shape scientific conclusions about model capabilities and steer model development. This creates a feedback loop: stronger benchmarks drive better models, and better models demand more discriminative benchmarks. Ensuring benchmark reliability is therefore essential for trustworthy evaluation and meaningful progress. In this work, we study benchmark reliability from a distributional perspective and introduce benchmark harmony, which measures how uniformly a model's performance is distributed across the subdomains of a benchmark. We posit that high harmony is a desirable benchmark property, indicating that the aggregate metric reflects uniform competence across subdomains. Across 19 multiple-choice benchmarks and five model families, we map each benchmark onto a mean-variance plane of harmony computed across models, where high mean and low variance signal more reliable evaluation. Our analysis shows that less harmonious benchmarks can give misleading results, since overall accuracy may be disproportionately influenced by specific subdomains. For instance, ARC-Easy is overwhelmed by questions on Biological Concepts, overshadowing other critical subdomains such as Geography, Physics, Chemistry, and Environmental Science. By recommending that harmony should be reported alongside accuracy, we reframe evaluation from simple performance averages to a more robust, distributionally reliable measurement of performance.

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popular recalibration methods like Platt scaling and temperature scaling are (i) less calibrated than reported, and (ii) current techniques cannot estimate how miscalibrated they are. An alternative method, histogram binning, has measurable calibration error but is sample inefficient---it requires O(B/ε^2) samples, compared to O(1/ε^2) for scaling methods, where B is the number of distinct probabilities the model can output. To get the best of both worlds, we introduce the scaling-binning calibrator, which first fits a parametric function to reduce variance and then bins the function values to actually ensure calibration. This requires only O(1/ε^2 + B) samples. Next, we show that we can estimate a model's calibration error more accurately using an estimator from the meteorological community---or equivalently measure its calibration error with fewer samples (O(B) instead of O(B)). We validate our approach with multiclass calibration experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, where we obtain a 35% lower calibration error than histogram binning and, unlike scaling methods, guarantees on true calibration. In these experiments, we also estimate the calibration error and ECE more accurately than the commonly used plugin estimators. We implement all these methods in a Python library: https://pypi.org/project/uncertainty-calibration

We study estimation and clustering in Gaussian mixture models under variance misspecification. Observations are generated with true variance σ^2, while the component means are estimated using a likelihood with variance τ^2, yielding a family of mismatched likelihood functions parameterized by the ratio ρ=τ/σ. We show that the interplay between ρ and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) induces a sharp phase diagram. Under correct specification (ρ=1), maximum likelihood recovers the true means, independently of the SNR. However, once the model is misspecified, two different regimes emerge. Under under-smoothing (ρ<1), the estimated Gaussian means are displaced from the truth, and in low SNR this discrepancy grows as the SNR decreases: for every fixed ρ<1, the squared error scales as SNR^{-1}. Under over-smoothing (ρ>1), the fitted likelihood blurs the cluster separation, causing distinct component means to collapse towards the overall mixture center once ρ^2 exceeds a threshold of the form 1 + λ,SNR, where λ depends on the geometry of the true means. We further show that the hard assignment objective arises as the limit τto 0 of the same mismatched likelihood family, and derive corresponding low- and high-SNR results for hard-assignment mean estimation and latent-label recovery. Furthermore, in low SNR, Bayes-optimal clustering is close to random guessing, and the hard-assignment target remains far from the true means. These results show that in low-SNR applications, even mild variance misspecification or hard-assignment procedures can induce substantial bias, whereas in high SNR these effects are largely absent.

Large multimodal reasoning models have achieved rapid progress, but their advancement is constrained by two major limitations: the absence of open, large-scale, high-quality long chain-of-thought (CoT) data, and the instability of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in post-training. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), the standard framework for RL fine-tuning, is prone to gradient vanishing when reward variance is low, which weakens optimization signals and impairs convergence. This work makes three contributions: (1) We propose Variance-Aware Sampling (VAS), a data selection strategy guided by Variance Promotion Score (VPS) that combines outcome variance and trajectory diversity to promote reward variance and stabilize policy optimization. (2) We release large-scale, carefully curated resources containing ~1.6M long CoT cold-start data and ~15k RL QA pairs, designed to ensure quality, difficulty, and diversity, along with a fully reproducible end-to-end training codebase. (3) We open-source a family of multimodal reasoning models in multiple scales, establishing standardized baselines for the community. Experiments across mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of both the curated data and the proposed VAS. Comprehensive ablation studies and analyses provide further insight into the contributions of each component. In addition, we theoretically establish that reward variance lower-bounds the expected policy gradient magnitude, with VAS serving as a practical mechanism to realize this guarantee. Our code, data, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/LengSicong/MMR1.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

Run the same LLM agent on the same task twice: do you get the same behavior? We find the answer is often no. In a study of 3,000 agent runs across three models (Llama 3.1 70B, GPT-4o, and Claude Sonnet 4.5) on HotpotQA, we observe that ReAct-style agents produce 2.0--4.2 distinct action sequences per 10 runs on average, even with identical inputs. More importantly, this variance predicts failure: tasks with consistent behavior (leq2 unique paths) achieve 80--92% accuracy, while highly inconsistent tasks (geq6 unique paths) achieve only 25--60%, a 32--55 percentage point gap depending on model. We trace variance to early decisions: 69% of divergence occurs at step 2, the first search query. Our results suggest that monitoring behavioral consistency during execution could enable early error detection and improve agent reliability.

In Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), constructing a robust advantage baseline is critical for policy gradients, effectively guiding the policy model to reinforce desired behaviors. Recent research has introduced Generalist Value Models (such as V_0), which achieve pre-trained value estimation by explicitly encoding model capabilities in-context, eliminating the need to synchronously update the value model alongside the policy model. In this paper, we propose V_{0.5}, which adaptively fuses the baseline predicted by such value model (acting as a prior) with the empirical mean derived from sparse rollouts. This constructs a robust baseline that balances computational efficiency with extremely low variance. Specifically, we introduce a real-time statistical testing and dynamic budget allocation. This balances the high variance caused by sparse sampling against the systematic bias (or hallucinations) inherent in the value model's prior. By constructing a hypothesis test to evaluate the prior's reliability in real-time, the system dynamically allocates additional rollout budget on demand. This mechanism minimizes the baseline estimator's Mean Squared Error (MSE), guaranteeing stable policy gradients, even under extreme sparsity with a group size of 4. Extensive evaluations across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that V_{0.5} significantly outperforms GRPO and DAPO, achieving faster convergence and over some 10% performance improvement.

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.

Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events. This paper proposes Neural Tangent Kernel-based uncertainty quantification (NTK-UQ) using last-layer empirical features. Theoretical analysis predicts that UQ quality is architecture-dependent through two mechanisms. First, a variance collapse mechanism explains when UQ fails: when the eigenvalue truncation rank approaches the effective rank of the feature space, the GP correction term consumes nearly all prior variance, destroying discrimination between tropical cyclones and routine conditions; architectures with concentrated spectra (spectral operators) require aggressive truncation (k leq 10), while attention-based models tolerate full-rank computation. Second, decomposition performance depends on the non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed structure of extreme weather: Independent Component Analysis exploits higher-order statistics (kurtosis, negentropy) to isolate heavy-tailed extreme-event features, achieving higher discrimination than singular value decomposition, which captures only second-order variance. A data-driven selection rule chooses ICA or SVD from the feature eigenspectrum concentration ratio, correctly prescribing the superior decomposition for all four evaluated architectures. Compared to split conformal prediction (the natural post-hoc baseline), NTK-UQ achieves 31--37\% sharper prediction intervals at 90\% coverage, and uniquely produces adaptive intervals that scale with extreme event severity, which conformal prediction cannot achieve by construction. The framework requires no retraining; inference-time uncertainty requires only a single matrix-vector product per sample.

The R-Mode system, an advanced terrestrial integrated navigation system, is designed to address the vulnerabilities of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and explore the potential of a complementary navigation system. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of performance simulation for the medium frequency (MF) R-Mode system by modeling the variance of time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements based on actual data. Drawing inspiration from the method used to calculate the standard deviation of time-of-reception (TOR) measurements in Loran, we adapted and applied this approach to the MF R-Mode system. Data were collected from transmitters in Palmi and Chungju, South Korea, and the parameters for modeling the variance of TOA were estimated.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have led to substantial improvements in the mathematical reasoning abilities of LLMs, as measured by standard benchmarks. Yet these gains often persist even when models are trained with flawed signals, such as random or inverted rewards. This raises a fundamental question: do such improvements reflect genuine reasoning, or are they merely artifacts of overfitting to benchmark-specific patterns? To answer this question, we adopt an evaluation-centric perspective and highlight two critical shortcomings in existing protocols. First, benchmark contamination arises because test problems are publicly available, thereby increasing the risk of data leakage. Second, evaluation fragility results from reliance on single-instance assessments, which are sensitive to stochastic outputs and fail to capture reasoning consistency. These limitations suggest the need for a new evaluation paradigm that can probe reasoning ability beyond memorization and one-off success. As response, we propose VAR-MATH, a symbolic evaluation framework that converts fixed numerical problems into parameterized templates and requires models to solve multiple instantiations of each. This design enforces consistency across structurally equivalent variants, mitigates contamination, and enhances robustness through bootstrapped metrics. We apply VAR-MATH to transform three popular benchmarks, AMC23, AIME24, and AIME25, into their symbolic counterparts, VAR-AMC23, VAR-AIME24, and VAR-AIME25. Experimental results show substantial performance drops for RL-trained models on these variabilized benchmarks, especially for smaller models, with average declines of 47.9\% on AMC23, 58.8\% on AIME24, and 72.9\% on AIME25. These findings indicate that some existing RL methods rely on superficial heuristics and fail to generalize beyond specific numerical forms.

The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.

In this work, we aim to estimate the stellar parameters of the primary (Aa) by performing asteroseismic analysis on its period-spacing pattern. We use the C-3PO neural network to perform asteroseismic modelling of the g-mode period-spacing pattern of Aa, discussing the interplay of this information with external constraints from spectroscopy (T_{rm eff} and log(g)) and eclipse modelling (R). To estimate the level of uncertainty due to different frequency extraction and pattern identification processes, we consider four different variations on the period-spacing patterns. To better understand the correlations between and the uncertainty structure of our parameter estimates, we also employed a classical, parameter-based MCMC grid search on four different stellar grids. The best-fitting, externally constrained model to the period-spacing pattern arrives at estimates of the stellar properties for Aa of: M=1.51 pm 0.05 M_odot, X_c =0.43 pm 0.04, R=1.66 pm 0.1 R_odot, f_{rm ov}=0.010, Omega_c=1.58 pm 0.01 d^{-1} with rigid rotation to within the measurement errors, log(T_{rm eff})=3.856 pm 0.008 dex, log(g)=4.18 pm 0.04 dex, and log(L)=0.809 pm 0.005 dex, which agree well with previous measurements from eclipse modelling, spectroscopy, and the Gaia DR3 luminosity. We find that the near-core properties of the best-fitting asteroseismic models are consistent with external constraints from eclipse modelling and spectroscopy. Aa appears to be a typical example of a gamma Dor star, fitting well within existing populations. We find that Aa is quasi-rigidly rotating to within the uncertainties, and note that the asteroseismic age estimate for Aa (1100 pm 100 Myr) is considerably older than the young (35 Myr) age implied by previous isochrone fits to the B binary in the literature. Our MCMC parameter-based grid-search agrees well with our pattern-modelling approach.

The outcome of Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training strongly depends on weight initialization and variance control strategies. Although the importance of initial variance control has been well documented in neural networks in general, the literature on initialization and management of its growth during LLM pre-training, specifically, is somewhat sparse. In this paper, we introduce the Layer Index Rescaling (LIR) weight initialization scheme, and the Target Variance Rescaling (TVR) variance control strategy. Experiments on a 1B parameter LLaMA model demonstrate that better variance management using these techniques yields substantial improvements in downstream task performance (up to 4.6% on common pre-training benchmarks) and reduces extreme activation values, thus mitigating challenges associated with quantization and low-precision training. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bluorion-com/weight_rescaling.

Single-cell CRISPR screens summarize each perturbation by how far cells move from their unperturbed state, averaging over cell-to-cell variation. Whether the cells moved together is not captured: two perturbations with identical effect magnitude can differ qualitatively, one driving cells along a shared trajectory, the other scattering them around the same mean. We define SheshaP coherence (S_p), the mean cosine similarity between individual cell displacement vectors and their mean, and ask what it adds across six Perturb-seq datasets (2,285 perturbations; CRISPRa, CRISPRi, Cas9 knockout). Coherence and effect magnitude are closely coupled (Spearman ρ=0.84--0.98), and the coupling persists in a foundation-model embedding, under alternative effect-size definitions, and when analysis is restricted to responding cells. Associations reported without conditioning on effect size largely recover it, shown here for two comparisons that vanish under conditioning. Effect size accounts for 89--96\% of coherence variance; within the remainder, coherence is negatively associated with apoptosis and p53 signalling in the two largest screens. Two standard responder classifiers agree on only 68\% of cells. Directional coherence is largely a restatement of effect magnitude, and heterogeneity measures should report their redundancy with effect size as a matter of course. S_p is implemented in the open-source shesha-geometry Python package.

Portfolio risk assessment ordinarily relies on reliable estimates of cross-asset return covariances, which are difficult to obtain in short, high-dimensional panels. We show that firm-level distribution-valued characteristics can instead provide one-sided certificates of portfolio risk. Under maintained links from characteristics to systematic exposures and from exposures to returns, multi-firm Wasserstein-2 dispersion yields a sharp upper bound on systematic portfolio variance and a corresponding bound for standardized returns. A weighted pairwise relaxation produces an objective that is convex under a checkable condition and requires marginal volatility scales but no cross-asset return covariances. With zero firm-specific slack, the common-map scale changes the certified variance reduction but not the normalized allocation, which depends only on observed information geometry. In a 52-firm panel from 2018-2022, an allocation constructed from Qwen3-Embedding-8B news representations lies between the 0.69th and 1.33rd in-sample variance percentiles across four prespecified capped portfolio populations; equal risk weighting lies between the 21.1st and 28.6th percentiles. The lower in-sample variance ranking relative to equal risk also appears across the reported frozen language-model representations. The framework therefore distribution-valued firm information into a coherent risk bound and an implementable allocation rule constructed without cross-asset return covariances.

An observable in an Effective Field Theory (EFT) is an expansion in a set of small parameters, no different than any other perturbation series. Truncating such a series expansion leaves the leading dropped term as the dominant source of error, and that term itself contains a calculable portion. We explore the partial calculation of this next-order error, available at dim-6^2 in SMEFT with no additional tools needed to simulate it, and explore how to efficiently use that partial calculation to model the next-order uncertainty in full using a minimal number of nuisance parameters. This estimate of the uncertainty of the EFT signal rate naturally imposes EFT validity by ensuring that bounds are driven by kinematic regions where truncation uncertainties are parametrically smaller than the signal. We incorporate the calculable dim-6^2 piece into the signal and cover the remaining higher-dimension uncertainty with a small set of nuisance parameters derived from a scan over Wilson-coefficient values. Our algorithm to determine the relevant nuisance parameters and distributions is automation-friendly and applies to arbitrary truncation choices. We then provide multiple examples of its implementation in high-energy collider processes focused on SMEFT truncated at O(Λ^{-2}), where the dim-6^2 piece is used to estimate the full mathcal O(Λ^{-4}) dependence. In the examples considered here the reduction of nuisance parameters is appreciable, generically reducing the nuisance parameter count by an order of magnitude compared to naïve estimates.

We develop a novel way to probe subgalactic-scale matter distribution with diffractive lensing on gravitational waves. Five-year observations from Einstein Telescope and DECIGO are expected to probe k= 10^5sim 10^8 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1} down to P(k) = 10^{-16} sim 10^{-14} ,{rm Mpc}^3 level. These results can be interpreted in terms of primordial black holes in the range M_{rm PBH} gtrsim 10^{-3}M_odot down to f_{rm PBH} = 10^{-6} level, or QCD axion minihalos in the range m_a = 10^{-3} sim 10^{-12} ,{rm eV}. A key result of the paper is the approximate relation between the scale k and the gravitational wave frequency f, derived in an ensemble of `multi-lensing' events. This relation enables direct measurement of the power spectrum at specific scales, with sensitivities characterized by model-independent kernels delta P(k). Additionally, we delineate the statistical properties of `multi-lensing' based on the `Fresnel number' N_F. When N_F cal O(1), the statistical significance can be approximately calculated by Variance of lensing effects, which is directly related to the power spectrum among other moments of matter distribution.

We reanalyze the spectral lag data for GRB 160625B using frequentist inference in order to constrain the energy scale (E_{QG}) of Lorentz Invariance Violation (LIV). For this purpose, we use profile likelihood to deal with the astrophysical nuisance parameters. This is in contrast to Bayesian inference implemented in previous works, where marginalization was carried out over the nuisance parameters. We show that with profile likelihood, we do not find a global minimum for chi^2 as a function of E_{QG} below the Planck scale for both linear and quadratic models of LIV, whereas bounded credible intervals were previously obtained using Bayesian inference. Therefore, we can set one-sided lower limits in a straightforward manner. We find that E_{QG} geq 2.55 times 10^{16} GeV and E_{QG} geq 1.85 times 10^7 GeV at 95\% c.l., for linear and quadratic LIV, respectively. Therefore, this is the first proof-of-principles application of profile likelihood method to the analysis of GRB spectral lag data to constrain LIV.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

Objective estimators of multimedia quality are often judged by comparing estimates with subjective "truth data," most often via Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) or mean-squared error (MSE). But subjective test results contain noise, so striving for a PCC of 1.0 or an MSE of 0.0 is neither realistic nor repeatable. Numerous efforts have been made to acknowledge and appropriately accommodate subjective test noise in objective-subjective comparisons, typically resulting in new analysis frameworks and figures-of-merit. We take a different approach. By making only basic assumptions, we derive bounds on PCC and MSE that can be expected for a subjective test. Consistent with intuition, these bounds are functions of subjective vote variance. When a subjective test includes vote variance information, the calculation of the bounds is easy, and in this case we say the resulting bounds are "fully data-driven." We provide two options for calculating bounds in cases where vote variance information is not available. One option is to use vote variance information from other subjective tests that do provide such information, and the second option is to use a model for subjective votes. Thus we introduce a binomial-based model for subjective votes (BinoVotes) that naturally leads to a mean opinion score (MOS) model, named BinoMOS, with multiple unique desirable properties. BinoMOS reproduces the discrete nature of MOS values and its dependence on the number of votes per file. This modeling provides vote variance information required by the PCC and MSE bounds and we compare this modeling with data from 18 subjective tests. The modeling yields PCC and MSE bounds that agree very well with those found from the data directly. These results allow one to set expectations for the PCC and MSE that might be achieved for any subjective test, even those where vote variance information is not available.

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is via formulating the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, it is often not possible to formulate a prior distribution that precisely encodes our prior knowledge about the unknown. Furthermore, adherence to handcrafted priors may greatly bias the outcome of the Bayesian analysis. To address this issue, we propose to use the functional form of a randomly initialized convolutional neural network as an implicit structured prior, which is shown to promote natural images and excludes images with unnatural noise. In order to incorporate the model uncertainty into the final estimate, we sample the posterior distribution using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics and perform Bayesian model averaging on the obtained samples. Our synthetic numerical experiment verifies that deep priors combined with Bayesian model averaging are able to partially circumvent imaging artifacts and reduce the risk of overfitting in the presence of extreme noise. Finally, we present pointwise variance of the estimates as a measure of uncertainty, which coincides with regions that are more difficult to image.

Upcoming deep galaxy surveys with JWST will probe galaxy evolution during the epoch of reionisation (EoR, 5leq zleq10) over relatively compact areas (e.g. sim 300\,arcmin^2 for the JADES GTO survey). It is therefore imperative that we understand the degree of survey variance, to evaluate how representative the galaxy populations in these studies will be. We use the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) to measure the galaxy bias of various tracers over an unprecedentedly large range in overdensity for a hydrodynamic simulation, and use these relations to assess the impact of bias and clustering on survey variance in the EoR. Star formation is highly biased relative to the underlying dark matter distribution, with the mean ratio of the stellar to dark matter density varying by a factor of 100 between regions of low and high matter overdensity (smoothed on a scale of 14,h^{-1}cMpc). This is reflected in the galaxy distribution --the most massive galaxies are found solely in regions of high overdensity. As a consequence of the above, galaxies in the EoR are highly clustered, which can lead to large variance in survey number counts. For mean number counts Nlesssim 100 (1000), in a unit redshift slice of angular area 300\,arcmin^2 (1.4\,deg^2), the 2-sigma range in N is roughly a factor of four (two). We present relations between the expected variance and survey area for different survey geometries; these relations will be of use to observers wishing to understand the impact of survey variance on their results.

We present ACAR (Adaptive Complexity and Attribution Routing), a measurement framework for studying multi-model orchestration under auditable conditions. ACAR uses self-consistency variance (sigma) computed from N=3 probe samples to route tasks across single-model, two-model, and three-model execution modes. The system is implemented on top of TEAMLLM, a deterministic execution substrate with immutable artifacts and complete decision traces. We evaluate ACAR on 1,510 tasks spanning four benchmarks: MathArena, Reasoning Gym, LiveCodeBench, and SuperGPQA, using Claude Sonnet 4, GPT-4o, and Gemini 2.0 Flash, producing more than 7,550 auditable runs. Results show that sigma-based routing achieves 55.6 percent accuracy, exceeding the two-model baseline of 54.4 percent while avoiding full ensembling on 54.2 percent of tasks. The routing mechanism is model-agnostic and requires no learned components. We also document negative results. First, retrieval augmentation reduced accuracy by 3.4 percentage points, as median retrieval similarity was only 0.167, demonstrating that experience injection without semantic alignment introduces noise rather than grounding. Second, when models agree on incorrect answers (sigma equals zero), no downstream ensemble can recover; this agreement-but-wrong failure mode is intrinsic to self-consistency and bounds achievable accuracy at approximately eight percentage points below full ensembling. Third, attribution estimates based on proxy signals such as response similarity and entropy showed weak correlation with ground-truth leave-one-out values, indicating that practical attribution requires explicit counterfactual computation. This work documents which assumptions fail in practice and provides falsifiable baselines for future research on routing, retrieval, and multi-model attribution.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

We propose a simple multiple outlier identification method for parametric location-scale and shape-scale models when the number of possible outliers is not specified. The method is based on a result giving asymptotic properties of extreme z-scores. Robust estimators of model parameters are used defining z-scores. An extensive simulation study was done for comparing of the proposed method with existing methods. For the normal family, the method is compared with the well known Davies-Gather, Rosner's, Hawking's and Bolshev's multiple outlier identification methods. The choice of an upper limit for the number of possible outliers in case of Rosner's test application is discussed. For other families, the proposed method is compared with a method generalizing Gather-Davies method. In most situations, the new method has the highest outlier identification power in terms of masking and swamping values. We also created R package outliersTests for proposed test.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) frequently suffer from posterior collapse, a failure mode in which the approximate posterior converges to the prior, rendering the latent code uninformative. Despite extensive research, a unified account of why collapse occurs has remained an open question. We identify and formalize two logically independent but coupled causes. Gradient imbalance occurs when the decoder's reconstruction signal vanishes faster than the KL regularization pressure as the posterior widens. Information gap occurs when the stochastic sampling step discards a substantial fraction of the encoder's computed representation, attenuating decoder sensitivity and making collapse inexpensive. Both causes share the same collapse trajectory, and we show that the information gap is algebraically equivalent to mismatch between the aggregate posterior and the prior, unifying two pathologies. Subsequently, we introduce λ-VAE, which resolves both causes through a single modification to the reparameterization step: the sampling noise is scaled by per-dimension exponent, while the KL penalty retains the original posterior variance. This asymmetry shifts the stable training attractor away from the degenerate collapsed state, driving all latent dimensions toward the same equilibrium -- a mechanism we term variance equalization. A closed-form optimal exponent per dimension follows from a net information gain objective, with a single hyperparameter controlling the reconstruction-generation tradeoff. We validate on standard benchmarks (Binary MNIST, Binary Omniglot, CIFAR-10, CelebA-64), showing consistent reductions in collapsed dimensions, information capacity gains of up to 2.8times nats, and reconstruction quality improvements of up to +0.33 BPD.

Strong empirical evidence that one machine-learning algorithm A outperforms another one B ideally calls for multiple trials optimizing the learning pipeline over sources of variation such as data sampling, data augmentation, parameter initialization, and hyperparameters choices. This is prohibitively expensive, and corners are cut to reach conclusions. We model the whole benchmarking process, revealing that variance due to data sampling, parameter initialization and hyperparameter choice impact markedly the results. We analyze the predominant comparison methods used today in the light of this variance. We show a counter-intuitive result that adding more sources of variation to an imperfect estimator approaches better the ideal estimator at a 51 times reduction in compute cost. Building on these results, we study the error rate of detecting improvements, on five different deep-learning tasks/architectures. This study leads us to propose recommendations for performance comparisons.

Phenomenological modeling of variable stars allows determination of a set of the parameters, which are needed for classification in the "General Catalogue of Variable Stars" and similar catalogs. We apply a recent method NAV ("New Algol Variable") to eclipsing binary stars of different types. Although all periodic functions may be represented as Fourier series with an infinite number of coefficients, this is impossible for a finite number of the observations. Thus one may use a restricted Fourier series, i.e. a trigonometric polynomial (TP) of order s either for fitting the light curve, or to make a periodogram analysis. However, the number of parameters needed drastically increases with decreasing width of minimum. In the NAV algorithm, the special shape of minimum is used, so the number of parameters is limited to 10 (if the period and initial epoch are fixed) or 12 (not fixed). We illustrate the NAV method by application to a recently discovered Algol-type eclipsing variable 2MASS J11080308-6145589 (in the field of previously known variable star RS Car) and compare results to that obtained using the TP fits. For this system, the statistically optimal number of parameters is 44, but the fit is still worse than that of the NAV fit. Application to the system GSC 3692-00624 argues that the NAV fit is better than the TP one even for the case of EW-type stars with much wider eclipses. Model parameters are listed.

Variance reduction (VR) techniques have contributed significantly to accelerating learning with massive datasets in the smooth and strongly convex setting (Schmidt et al., 2017; Johnson & Zhang, 2013; Roux et al., 2012). However, such techniques have not yet met the same success in the realm of large-scale deep learning due to various factors such as the use of data augmentation or regularization methods like dropout (Defazio & Bottou, 2019). This challenge has recently motivated the design of novel variance reduction techniques tailored explicitly for deep learning (Arnold et al., 2019; Ma & Yarats, 2018). This work is an additional step in this direction. In particular, we exploit the ubiquitous clustering structure of rich datasets used in deep learning to design a family of scalable variance reduced optimization procedures by combining existing optimizers (e.g., SGD+Momentum, Quasi Hyperbolic Momentum, Implicit Gradient Transport) with a multi-momentum strategy (Yuan et al., 2019). Our proposal leads to faster convergence than vanilla methods on standard benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR and ImageNet). It is robust to label noise and amenable to distributed optimization. We provide a parallel implementation in JAX.

Current preference learning methods achieve high accuracy on standard benchmarks but exhibit significant performance degradation when objective quality signals are removed. We introduce WritingPreferenceBench, a dataset of 1,800 human-annotated preference pairs (1,200 English, 600 Chinese) across 8 creative writing genres, where responses are matched for objective correctness, factual accuracy, and length. On this benchmark, sequence-based reward models--the standard architecture for RLHF--achieve only 52.7% mean accuracy, while zero-shot language model judges perform at 53.9%. In contrast, generative reward models that produce explicit reasoning chains achieve 81.8% accuracy. We observe high within-model variance across genres: individual models range from 18.2% to 81.8% accuracy across different writing categories, with standard deviations averaging 10.1%. This variance persists regardless of model scale, with 27B parameter models showing no consistent improvement over 8B variants. Our results suggest that current RLHF methods primarily learn to detect objective errors rather than capture subjective quality preferences (e.g., creativity, stylistic flair, and emotional resonance), and that successful preference modeling may require intermediate reasoning representations rather than direct classification.

Scaling visual generation models is essential for real-world content creation, yet requires substantial training and computational expenses. Alternatively, test-time scaling has garnered growing attention due to resource efficiency and promising performance. In this work, we present TTS-VAR, the first general test-time scaling framework for visual auto-regressive (VAR) models, modeling the generation process as a path searching problem. To dynamically balance computational efficiency with exploration capacity, we first introduce an adaptive descending batch size schedule throughout the causal generation process. Besides, inspired by VAR's hierarchical coarse-to-fine multi-scale generation, our framework integrates two key components: (i) At coarse scales, we observe that generated tokens are hard for evaluation, possibly leading to erroneous acceptance of inferior samples or rejection of superior samples. Noticing that the coarse scales contain sufficient structural information, we propose clustering-based diversity search. It preserves structural variety through semantic feature clustering, enabling later selection on samples with higher potential. (ii) In fine scales, resampling-based potential selection prioritizes promising candidates using potential scores, which are defined as reward functions incorporating multi-scale generation history. Experiments on the powerful VAR model Infinity show a notable 8.7% GenEval score improvement (from 0.69 to 0.75). Key insights reveal that early-stage structural features effectively influence final quality, and resampling efficacy varies across generation scales. Code is available at https://github.com/ali-vilab/TTS-VAR.

Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) models significantly reduce inference steps through the "next-scale" prediction paradigm. However, progressive multi-scale generation incurs substantial memory overhead due to cumulative KV caching, limiting practical deployment. We observe a scale-depth asymmetric dependency in VAR: early scales exhibit extreme sensitivity to network depth, while later scales remain robust to depth reduction. Inspired by this, we propose VARiant: by equidistant sampling, we select multiple subnets ranging from 16 to 2 layers from the original 30-layer VAR-d30 network. Early scales are processed by the full network, while later scales utilize subnet. Subnet and the full network share weights, enabling flexible depth adjustment within a single model. However, weight sharing between subnet and the entire network can lead to optimization conflicts. To address this, we propose a progressive training strategy that breaks through the Pareto frontier of generation quality for both subnets and the full network under fixed-ratio training, achieving joint optimality. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that, compared to the pretrained VAR-d30 (FID 1.95), VARiant-d16 and VARiant-d8 achieve nearly equivalent quality (FID 2.05/2.12) while reducing memory consumption by 40-65%. VARiant-d2 achieves 3.5 times speedup and 80% memory reduction at moderate quality cost (FID 2.97). In terms of deployment, VARiant's single-model architecture supports zero-cost runtime depth switching and provides flexible deployment options from high quality to extreme efficiency, catering to diverse application scenarios.

Since their discovery, AGN light curves are known to be intrinsically variable. In the optical/UV band, this variability is consistent with correlated or red noise and is particularly well described by the damped random walk (DRW) model. In this work, we evaluate the feasibility of a new method for identifying spatially unresolved couples of AGN through a fully Bayesian time-domain analysis of the observed light curves (LCs). More specifically, we check whether observed LCs are better described by a single DRW, which we interpret as emitted by a single massive black hole (MBH), or a pair of independent DRWs, generated by a pair of MBHs. We test the method on mock LCs associated with a single MBH and pairs generated with different cadences and lengths of observational campaigns. We constrained the occurrence of false positives, that is, the percentage of single MBH LCs that show substantial evidence in favour of the unresolved MBH pair scenario, finding a fraction of 0.2% and 0.59% in the even and uneven sampling scenarios. We discuss how well the method recovers the model parameters, showing that about 51% and 7% of the simulated LCs have all the recovered parameters within 20% of their true values in our best scenario of evenly sampled LCs for the single MBH and MBH pair scenarios, respectively. We finally study the region of the parameter space in which the detection of an MBH pair is possible, finding that such objects can be correctly identified if the timescales of the process describing the noise are very different, with a ratio smaller than ~0.2, and the variability amplitudes are similar, with their ratio bigger than ~0.2. When limiting to such a region of the parameter space, the fraction of pairs with all the recovered parameters within 20% of the injected values increases up to about 14% and 8% for evenly and unevenly sampled LCs, respectively.

As AI becomes more capable, we entrust it with more general and consequential tasks. The risks from failure grow more severe with increasing task scope. It is therefore important to understand how extremely capable AI models will fail: Will they fail by systematically pursuing goals we do not intend? Or will they fail by being a hot mess, and taking nonsensical actions that do not further any goal? We operationalize this question using a bias-variance decomposition of the errors made by AI models: An AI's incoherence on a task is measured over test-time randomness as the fraction of its error that stems from variance rather than bias in task outcome. Across all tasks and frontier models we measure, the longer models spend reasoning and taking actions, the more incoherent their failures become. Incoherence changes with model scale in a way that is experiment dependent. However, in several settings, larger, more capable models are more incoherent than smaller models. Consequently, scale alone seems unlikely to eliminate incoherence. Instead, as more capable AIs pursue harder tasks, requiring more sequential action and thought, our results predict failures to be accompanied by more incoherent behavior. This suggests a future where AIs sometimes cause industrial accidents (due to unpredictable misbehavior), but are less likely to exhibit consistent pursuit of a misaligned goal. This increases the relative importance of alignment research targeting reward hacking or goal misspecification.

We review the method NAV (New Algol Variable) first introduced in 2012Ap.....55..536A, which uses the locally-dependent shapes of eclipses in an addition to the trigonometric polynomial of the second order (which typically describes the "out-of-eclipse" part of the light curve with effects of reflection, ellipticity and O'Connell). Eclipsing binary stars are believed to show distinct eclipses only if belonging to the EA type. With a decreasing eclipse width, the statistically optimal value of the trigonometric polynomial s (2003ASPC..292..391A) drastically increases from ~2 for elliptic (EL) variables without eclipses, ~6-8 for EW and up to ~30-50 for some EA with narrow eclipses. In this case of large number of parameters, the smoothing curve becomes very noisy and apparent waves (the Gibbs phenomenon) may be seen. The NAV set of the parameters may be used for classification in the GCVS, VSX and similar catalogs. The maximal number of parameters is m=12, which corresponds to s=5, if correcting both the period and the initial epoch. We have applied the method to few stars, also in a case of multi-color photometry (2015JASS...32..127A), when it is possible to use the phenomenological parameters from the NAV fit to estimate physical parameters using statistical dependencies. We conclude that the NAV approximation is better than the TP one even for the case of EW-type stars with much wider eclipses. It may also be used to determine timings (see 2005ASPC..335...37A for a review of methods) or to determine parameters in the case of variable period, using a complete light curve modeling the phase variations. The method is illustrated on 2MASS J11080447-6143290 (EA-type), USNO-B1.0 1265-0306001 and USNO-B1.0 1266-0313413 (EW-type) and compared to various other methods from the literature.

Gravitational waves from asymmetric mass-ratio black-hole binaries carry unique information about their astrophysical environment. For instance, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) could potentially measure the amplitude and slope of gas torques in binaries embedded in the accretion disks of Active Galactic Nuclei, helping differentiate competing accretion disk models. However, this relies on simplified analytic models, which do not account for the stochastic variability of torques seen in hydrodynamic simulations. In this work, we use hydrodynamic simulations to create gravitational waveforms for extreme and intermediate mass-ratio inspirals in the LISA band. We then analyze these simulated waveforms using simpler templates that assume analytic torques, without stochastic time variability. By performing realistic Bayesian parameter estimation, we find no bias at 90% confidence in the binary parameters; however, estimates of accretion disk parameters, such as torque amplitude and slope, may be biased. Typically, the posterior distribution is centered around the average value of the torques, but when stochastic variability is large, the posterior can indicate no torques, even though they are present in the simulation. Our results suggest that while simplified analytic torque models work well for estimating binary parameters, caution is needed when using them to infer properties of the accretion disk. This work moves towards a more realistic assessment of one of the LISA science objectives, i.e., probing the properties of the astrophysical environments of black holes.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning often assumes a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors, leading to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. We introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning to enhance the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to address epistemic uncertainty by fully leveraging the GGD. We refine batch inverse variance weighting with bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, enhancing robustness. Experiments with policy gradient algorithms demonstrate significant performance gains.

The Stokes V parameter characterizes asymmetry of amplitudes between right- and left-handed waves, and non-vanishing value of the V parameter yields a circularly polarized signal. Cosmologically, V parameter may be a direct probe for parity violation in the universe. In this paper, we theoretically investigate a measurement of this parameter, particularly focusing on the gravitational-wave backgrounds observed via ground-based interferometers. In contrast to the traditional analysis that only considers the total amplitude (or equivalently Omega_{GW}), the signal analysis including a circular-polarized mode has a rich structure due to the multi-dimensionality of target parameters. We show that, by using the network of next-generation detectors, separation between polarized and unpolarized modes can be performed with small statistical loss induced by their correlation.

Metric space magnitude, an active subject of research in algebraic topology, originally arose in the context of biology, where it was used to represent the effective number of distinct species in an environment. In a more general setting, the magnitude of a metric space is a real number that aims to quantify the effective number of distinct points in the space. The contribution of each point to a metric space's global magnitude, which is encoded by the {\em weighting vector}, captures much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Surprisingly, when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector also serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. This allows the weighting vector to serve as the foundation of novel algorithms for classic machine learning tasks such as classification, outlier detection and active learning. We demonstrate, using experiments and comparisons on classic benchmark datasets, the promise of the proposed magnitude and weighting vector-based approaches.

A content-moderation system can score well on every standard accuracy metric and still cause real harm, if its mistakes fall on the few users who connect otherwise separate communities. We show this in an agent-based model where N=240 learning agents on a community-structured network each post harmless, productive, or dangerous content, and a regulator removes or penalizes whatever a noisy classifier flags. Overall usefulness barely moves as the noise changes (one-way ANOVA, p=0.96): by aggregate measures, nothing looks wrong. The damage instead concentrates on these bridge users, whose useful posts are wrongly suppressed and whose dangerous posts are wrongly spared. A governance loss (L_gov) that prices these two mistakes separately from the cost of enforcement more than doubles under false-positive-heavy noise. Aggregate accuracy hides who is harmed, and the cheap quantity to audit is how many connections a user has (degree), a near-perfect proxy for the betweenness that defines a bridge (r=0.96).

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of the bias with respect to a parameter sigma describing the measurement error on the data. We propose two bootstrap procedures that quantify the bias and correct it, if needed. They are applicable for any type of shape data. We give a rule of thumb to provide intuition on whether the bias has to be corrected. This exhibits the parameters that control the bias' magnitude. We illustrate our results on simulated and real shape data.

Equivariance theory predicts that an architectural symmetry prior reduces sample complexity by a factor of |G|; this is widely cited but rarely measured as a scaling law with controls that separate the prior from its confounds. On a controlled C_n-symmetric task, we report three findings. First, a wrong-group control with identical orbit size and matched compute is worse than no constraint (joint pairwise CI [+0.79, +3.26] excludes zero, robust across estimators); misaligned constraint is actively harmful, not merely unhelpful. Second, an augmentation baseline equipped with test-time orbit averaging matches the equivariant model exactly -- bit-identical per-epoch validation curves across matched cells -- so the architecture-vs-augmentation gap is conditional on asymmetric test-time computation, not unconditional. Third, the relative exchange rate beta_diff = 1.28 is consistent in sign and order of magnitude with the theoretical 1.0 (single-level CI [+0.92, +2.05]); the more conservative two-level bootstrap (seeds x group sizes) widens this to [-0.63, +1.72], including zero, and a finer-N replication on a sqrt(2)-spaced grid is inconclusive (point estimate -0.82). The methodological contributions -- the relative-rate estimator that cancels the shared-difficulty confound, the wrong-group control, and a pre-specified failure taxonomy -- transfer to any inductive bias whose strength can be parameterised. Honest scoping: the primary estimator beta_diff was adopted post-hoc after the initial analysis revealed a positive-slope identifiability problem; the design was never externally pre-registered; and the headline number rests on an OLS slope over seven group sizes on a coarse N grid. This is an exploratory study, not a confirmatory measurement; the wrong-group result is the cleanest finding and the one we report with the most confidence. A registered replication on fresh seeds is future work.

Deep learning methods for unsupervised registration often rely on objectives that assume a uniform noise level across the spatial domain (e.g. mean-squared error loss), but noise distributions are often heteroscedastic and input-dependent in real-world medical images. Thus, this assumption often leads to degradation in registration performance, mainly due to the undesired influence of noise-induced outliers. To mitigate this, we propose a framework for heteroscedastic image uncertainty estimation that can adaptively reduce the influence of regions with high uncertainty during unsupervised registration. The framework consists of a collaborative training strategy for the displacement and variance estimators, and a novel image fidelity weighting scheme utilizing signal-to-noise ratios. Our approach prevents the model from being driven away by spurious gradients caused by the simplified homoscedastic assumption, leading to more accurate displacement estimation. To illustrate its versatility and effectiveness, we tested our framework on two representative registration architectures across three medical image datasets. Our method consistently outperforms baselines and produces sensible uncertainty estimates. The code is publicly available at https://voldemort108x.github.io/hetero_uncertainty/.

Metric space magnitude, an active field of research in algebraic topology, is a scalar quantity that summarizes the effective number of distinct points that live in a general metric space. The {\em weighting vector} is a closely-related concept that captures, in a nontrivial way, much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Recent work has demonstrated that when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. We recast this result and show the weighting vector may be viewed as a solution to a kernelized SVM. As one consequence, we apply this new insight to the task of outlier detection, and we demonstrate performance that is competitive or exceeds performance of state-of-the-art techniques on benchmark data sets. Under mild assumptions, we show the weighting vector, which has computational cost of matrix inversion, can be efficiently approximated in linear time. We show how nearest neighbor methods can approximate solutions to the minimization problems defined by SVMs.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

The phase evolution of gravitational waves encodes critical information about the orbital dynamics of binary systems. In this work, we test the robustness of parameterized tests against unmodeled deviations from general relativity. We demonstrate that these parameterized tests are flexible and sensitive in detecting generic deviations in the waveform using the Cutler-Vallisneri bias formalism. This universality arises from examining the inherent geometry of the waveform signal and understanding how biases manifest. We show how Bayes factors are governed by the intrinsic geometry of the waveform signal manifold when parameterized tests are used to approximate generic violations of GR. We use the singular value decomposition to propose templates that are orthogonal to parameterized tests, identifying degeneracies and enhancing the detection of potential deviations. More broadly, the geometric framework developed here clarifies -- at a fundamental level -- how subtle waveform effects (including orbital eccentricity, spin precession, waveform systematics, and instrumental glitches) can mimic one another in data, and when they are intrinsically distinguishable.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Existing evaluation methods largely rely on clean, static benchmarks, which can overestimate true model performance by failing to capture the noise and variability inherent in real-world user inputs. This is especially true for language models, which can face human-generated text queries containing mistakes, typos, or alternative ways of phrasing the same question. In this work, we introduce a theoretical framework for quantifying model sensitivity to prompt variants, or brittleness, that can enable us to disentangle data-induced difficulty from prompt-related variability. Using this framework, we design a novel evaluation pipeline, Brittlebench, to holistically evaluate the sensitivity of frontier models. We apply semantics-preserving perturbations to a suite of popular benchmarks, and observe model performance to degrade as much as 12%. However, these perturbations do not affect all models equally: even a single perturbation alters the relative ranking of models in 63% of cases, impacting conclusions about comparative model performance. Decomposing the total variance of both state-of-the-art open-weight and commercial models, we find that semantics-preserving input perturbations can account for up to half of the performance variance for a given model. Brittlebench highlights the need for more robust evaluations and models, and allows us to systematically understand model brittleness.

The probabilistic reading of the cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) has a long industry lineage. Falkenstein, Boral and Carty (2000) state, in discrete form, that the default rate at a score percentile equals the portfolio average rate times the local slope of the power curve; van der Burgt (2008, 2019) formalizes this as the continuous identity p(Dmid x) = p_D, dy/dx and imports the continuous form as a working fact; Tasche (2009) analyzes the resulting calibration method; Voloshyn and Voloshyn (2023) substitute Bayes' theorem, f(xmid D)=p(Dmid x) f(x)/p_D, into the area integral and write the Gini as a functional of the calibration curve. The slope itself is already in the lineage (van der Burgt's dy/dx is the ratio of the two cumulative differentials), but it enters as a cited working fact, never as Bayes' theorem. We make that identification explicit and draw out its consequences. First, the CAP slope is Bayes' theorem in cumulative coordinates: the standardized PD it recovers is the posterior probability rescaled by the prior. The weight of the paper then falls on two results this reading unlocks. The odds form places the weight of evidence (the log of the likelihood ratio, i.e. the Bayes factor) and the information value inside one geometry (the weight of evidence at a point is the log of the ratio of the "bad" and "good" CAP slopes). The accuracy ratio, Somers' D_{xy}, and the Gini (2A-1)/(1-p_D) are revealed as one number computed three ways. Run in comparison mode (realized outcomes against model claims), the same identity recovers the reliability diagram in cumulative coordinates, with the sign of the gap between the empirical and model-implied Gini coefficients as a calibration diagnostic. A worked five-band example carries every identity in discrete form, and a kernel-density example extends them to the continuous case.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

In value-based deep reinforcement learning with replay memories, the batch size parameter specifies how many transitions to sample for each gradient update. Although critical to the learning process, this value is typically not adjusted when proposing new algorithms. In this work we present a broad empirical study that suggests {\em reducing} the batch size can result in a number of significant performance gains; this is surprising, as the general tendency when training neural networks is towards larger batch sizes for improved performance. We complement our experimental findings with a set of empirical analyses towards better understanding this phenomenon.

In this article, we study the consistency of the template estimation with the Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces. The Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces is often used when the observations are deformed or transformed by a group action. We show that in most cases this estimator is actually inconsistent. We exhibit a sufficient condition for this inconsistency, which amounts to the folding of the distribution of the noisy template when it is projected to the quotient space. This condition appears to be fulfilled as soon as the support of the noise is large enough. To quantify this inconsistency we provide lower and upper bounds of the bias as a function of the variability (the noise level). This shows that the consistency bias cannot be neglected when the variability increases.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

In this work we propose an analytical model that reproduces the core-bounds phase of gravitational waves (GW) of Rapidly Rotating (RR) from Core Collapse Supernovae (CCSNe), as a function of three parameters, the arrival time tau, the ratio of the kinetic and potential energy beta and a phenomenological parameter alpha related to rotation and equation of state (EOS). To validate the model we use 126 waveforms from the Richers catalog Richers_2017 selected with the criteria of exploring a range of rotation profiles, and involving EOS. To quantify the degree of accuracy of the proposed model, with a particular focus on the rotation parameter beta, we show that the average Fitting Factor (FF) between the simulated waveforms with the templates is 94.4\%. In order to estimate the parameters we propose a frequentist matched filtering approach in real interferometric noise which does not require assigning any priors. We use the Matched Filter (MF) technique, where we inject a bank of templates considering simulated colored Gaussian noise and the real noise of O3L1. For example for A300w6.00\_BHBLP at 10Kpc we obtain a standar deviation of sigma = 3.34times 10^{-3} for simulated colored Gaussian noise and sigma= 1.46times 10^{-2} for real noise. On the other hand, from the asymptotic expansion of the variance we obtain the theoretical minimum error for beta at 10 kpc and optimal orientation. The estimation error in this case is from 10^{-2} to 10^{-3} as beta increases. We show that the results of the estimation error of beta for the 3-parameter space (3D) is consistent with the single-parameter space (1D), which allows us to conclude that beta is decoupled from the others two parameters.

Policy-gradient methods usually optimize expected return, but many real world applications care about distributional properties of returns: tail risk, outlier robustness, or best-of-K discovery. We introduce OrderGrad, a family of likelihood-ratio and reparameterization gradient estimators for order-statistic objectives. OrderGrad optimizes finite-sample L-statistics, i.e., weighted averages of sorted rewards or costs, recovering objectives such as VaR, CVaR, trimmed means, medians, and top-m/best-of-K criteria by changing only the rank weights. For any fixed sample size and rank-weight vector, OrderGrad provides an unbiased gradient estimator for the corresponding order-statistic objective. The method is implemented as a simple reward transformation that can then be used in an otherwise standard policy-gradient or reparameterized update. We study the resulting estimator's variance behavior and evaluate it on tasks where mean optimization is mismatched to the deployment objective, including LLM math post-training and other tasks. OrderGrad provides a unified, plug-and-play route to risk-averse, robust, and exploratory learning. Code: https://github.com/paavo5/ordergrad

Empirical scaling laws prescribe how to allocate parameters, data, and compute, while maximal-update parameterization (muP) enables learning-rate transfer across widths by equalizing early-time update magnitudes. However, in modern scale-invariant architectures, training quickly enters an optimizer-governed steady state where normalization layers create backward scale sensitivity and the effective learning rate becomes width dependent, degrading muP transfer. We address this by introducing a weight-decay scaling rule for AdamW that preserves sublayer gain across widths. Empirically, the singular-value spectrum of each matrix parameter scales in norm as eta/lambda with an approximately invariant shape; under width scaling d, we observe that the top singular value scales approximately as eta/lambdacdot d^{0.75}. Combining this observation with the muP learning-rate rule eta_2propto d^{-1} for matrix-like parameters implies an empirical weight-decay scaling rule lambda_2propto d that approximately keeps sublayer gains width invariant. Together with vector-like parameters trained at eta_1=Theta_d(1) and lambda_1=0, this yields zero-shot transfer of both learning rate and weight decay from proxy to target widths, removing per-width sweeps. We validate the rule on LLaMA-style Transformers and in a minimal synthetic setting, and we provide a simple diagnostic, matching top singular values, to check sublayer-gain invariance. Our results extend muP beyond the near-init regime by explicitly controlling steady-state scales set by the optimizer, offering a practical recipe for width-robust hyperparameter transfer under AdamW.

Modern neural network training relies on optimizers such as Adam and Muon which act on each weight matrix as a single object. Yet every weight matrix carries two distinct quantities -- a magnitude and a direction -- and all optimizers stepping in the matrix as a whole couple their dynamics: the directional change from an update depends on the current magnitude, while the magnitude drifts as a byproduct of learning the direction, so neither is governed directly by the learning rate. Typical training therefore leans on surrounding recipes such as weight decay and warmup to keep learning stable at scale, though these regulate the coupling only indirectly; other recent methods instead constrain the weight to a fixed-norm sphere, but add no learnable magnitude, leaving scale control to normalization layers alone. We propose Magnitude--Direction (MD) Decoupling, an optimizer modification that factorizes each weight into a fixed-norm direction on a hypersphere and learnable per-row and per-column magnitude gains, updated at separate learning rates, all while the model still sees a single fused weight tensor. The method is agnostic to the base optimizer and removes the need for weight decay and warmup. Across both Adam and Muon, MD Decoupling improves on well-tuned baselines, transfers the optimal LR across model width without retuning, and continues to help at scale on large Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models. Treating magnitude and direction as separately controlled quantities thus yields more predictable training dynamics and a simple, broadly applicable improvement to modern optimizers.

In policy gradient reinforcement learning, access to a differentiable model enables 1st-order gradient estimation that accelerates learning compared to relying solely on derivative-free 0th-order estimators. However, discontinuous dynamics cause bias and undermine the effectiveness of 1st-order estimators. Prior work addressed this bias by constructing a confidence interval around the REINFORCE 0th-order gradient estimator and using these bounds to detect discontinuities. However, the REINFORCE estimator is notoriously noisy, and we find that this method requires task-specific hyperparameter tuning and has low sample efficiency. This paper asks whether such bias is the primary obstacle and what minimal fixes suffice. First, we re-examine standard discontinuous settings from prior work and introduce DDCG, a lightweight test that switches estimators in nonsmooth regions; with a single hyperparameter, DDCG achieves robust performance and remains reliable with small samples. Second, on differentiable robotics control tasks, we present IVW-H, a per-step inverse-variance implementation that stabilizes variance without explicit discontinuity detection and yields strong results. Together, these findings indicate that while estimator switching improves robustness in controlled studies, careful variance control often dominates in practical deployments.

We introduce novel variants of momentum by incorporating the variance of the stochastic loss function. The variance characterizes the confidence or uncertainty of the local features of the averaged loss surface across the i.i.d. subsets of the training data defined by the mini-batches. We show two applications of the gradient of the variance of the loss function. First, as a bias to the conventional momentum update to encourage conformity of the local features of the loss function (e.g. local minima) across mini-batches to improve generalization and the cumulative training progress made per epoch. Second, as an alternative direction for "exploration" in the parameter space, especially, for non-convex objectives, that exploits both the optimistic and pessimistic views of the loss function in the face of uncertainty. We also introduce a novel data-driven stochastic regularization technique through the parameter update rule that is model-agnostic and compatible with arbitrary architectures. We further establish connections to probability distributions over loss functions and the REINFORCE policy gradient update with baseline in RL. Finally, we incorporate the new variants of momentum proposed into Adam, and empirically show that our methods improve the rate of convergence of training based on our experiments on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets.

The magnitude of a finite metric space has recently emerged as a novel invariant quantity, allowing to measure the effective size of a metric space. Despite encouraging first results demonstrating the descriptive abilities of the magnitude, such as being able to detect the boundary of a metric space, the potential use cases of magnitude remain under-explored. In this work, we investigate the properties of the magnitude on images, an important data modality in many machine learning applications. By endowing each individual images with its own metric space, we are able to define the concept of magnitude on images and analyse the individual contribution of each pixel with the magnitude vector. In particular, we theoretically show that the previously known properties of boundary detection translate to edge detection abilities in images. Furthermore, we demonstrate practical use cases of magnitude for machine learning applications and propose a novel magnitude model that consists of a computationally efficient magnitude computation and a learnable metric. By doing so, we address the computational hurdle that used to make magnitude impractical for many applications and open the way for the adoption of magnitude in machine learning research.

Reliable evaluation is fundamental to the progress of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet the evaluation process during pre-training is plagued by significant instability that obscures true learning dynamics. In this work, we systematically diagnose this instability, attributing it to two distinct sources: Parameter Instability from training stochasticity and Evaluation Instability from noisy measurement protocols. To counteract both sources of noise, we introduce MaP, a dual-pronged framework that synergistically integrates checkpoint Merging and the Pass@k metric. Checkpoint merging smooths the parameter space by averaging recent model weights, while Pass@k provides a robust, low-variance statistical estimate of model capability. Extensive experiments show that MaP yields significantly smoother performance curves, reduces inter-run variance, and ensures more consistent model rankings. Ultimately, MaP provides a more reliable and faithful lens for observing LLM training dynamics, laying a crucial empirical foundation for LLM research.

We present an end-to-end pipeline for estimating stellar parameters from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 12 spectra using a fully connected multitask neural network with residual blocks, whose hyperparameters are tuned via Bayesian optimization. The preprocessing pipeline includes per-spectrum standardization, RobustScaler normalization of the target variables -- effective temperature T_{eff}, metallicity [Fe/H], and surface gravity log g -- and data augmentation via Gaussian noise injection. On a held-out test set, the model achieved Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) of 59.76~K for T_{eff}, 0.103~dex for [Fe/H], and 0.130~dex for log g. Normalized against the full-scale range of each parameter, these results represent range-normalized errors between 1% and 3%, achieved with a highly efficient model complexity of approximately 540,000 trainable parameters. These results demonstrate that a compact residual multitask architecture, combined with principled signal preprocessing, provides a parameter-efficient solution for nonlinear parameter estimation in large-scale spectral datasets. In particular, the proposed model achieves competitive performance with substantially lower complexity than deeper neural network baselines.

Firm characteristics are commonly represented as fixed vectors, even though evidence about firms' operations arrives as heterogeneous collections of articles reports. We study how distances between distributions of firm characteristics restrict systematic covariance. For given latent exposure laws, quadratic Wasserstein geometry yields sharp covariance endpoints over admissible couplings. Under a common randomized bi-Lipschitz characteristic-to-exposure map, bounded risk-coordinate slack, and a maintained return-covariance bridge, characteristic-side distance yields a conditional interval for the covariance ceiling. Greater separation then leaves less scope for aligned systematic exposures when these assumptions are tight, while a non-negative transport excess term records the gap between realized and maximum-covariance arrangements. The resulting envelope is scenario analysis rather than an expected-return, no-arbitrage, or identified structural model. Empirically, we proxy characteristic distributions with encoder-only language-model embeddings of financial news articles, disclosures, and analyst reports for Nasdaq firms over 2018-2022. In a dyadic regression with symmetric firm effects, greater pairwise article-embedding W2 distance is associated with weaker return co-movement: the coefficient is 1.920, with 95% interval [1.412, 2.468]. The estimate retains the same sign when returns are measured in a later window, although the feature construction is not point-in-time and the evidence remains reduced form.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where rare but severe failures can result in irreversible harm. However, prevailing evaluation benchmarks often reduce complex social risk to mean-centered scalar scores, thereby obscuring distributional structure, cross-dimensional interactions, and worst-case behavior. This paper introduces Social Harm Analysis via Risk Profiles (SHARP), a framework for multidimensional, distribution-aware evaluation of social harm. SHARP models harm as a multivariate random variable and integrates explicit decomposition into bias, fairness, ethics, and epistemic reliability with a union-of-failures aggregation reparameterized as additive cumulative log-risk. The framework further employs risk-sensitive distributional statistics, with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR95) as a primary metric, to characterize worst-case model behavior. Application of SHARP to eleven frontier LLMs, evaluated on a fixed corpus of n=901 socially sensitive prompts, reveals that models with similar average risk can exhibit more than twofold differences in tail exposure and volatility. Across models, dimension-wise marginal tail behavior varies systematically across harm dimensions, with bias exhibiting the strongest tail severities, epistemic and fairness risks occupying intermediate regimes, and ethical misalignment consistently lower; together, these patterns reveal heterogeneous, model-dependent failure structures that scalar benchmarks conflate. These findings indicate that responsible evaluation and governance of LLMs require moving beyond scalar averages toward multidimensional, tail-sensitive risk profiling.

Safety benchmarks such as HarmBench rely on LLM judges to classify model responses as harmful or safe, yet the judge configuration, namely the combination of judge model and judge prompt, is typically treated as a fixed implementation detail. We show this assumption is problematic. Using a 2 x 2 x 3 factorial design, we construct 12 judge prompt variants along two axes, evaluation structure and instruction framing, and apply them using a single judge model, Claude Sonnet 4-6, producing 28,812 judgments over six target models and 400 HarmBench behaviors. We find that prompt wording alone, holding the judge model fixed, shifts measured harmful-response rates by up to 24.2 percentage points, with even within-condition surface rewording causing swings of up to 20.1 percentage points. Model safety rankings are moderately unstable, with mean Kendall tau = 0.89, and category-level sensitivity ranges from 39.6 percentage points for copyright to 0 percentage points for harassment. A supplementary multi-judge experiment using three judge models shows that judge-model choice adds further variance. Our results demonstrate that judge prompt wording is a substantial, previously under-examined source of measurement variance in safety benchmarking.

Based on the weight-sharing mechanism, one-shot NAS methods train a supernet and then inherit the pre-trained weights to evaluate sub-models, largely reducing the search cost. However, several works have pointed out that the shared weights suffer from different gradient descent directions during training. And we further find that large gradient variance occurs during supernet training, which degrades the supernet ranking consistency. To mitigate this issue, we propose to explicitly minimize the gradient variance of the supernet training by jointly optimizing the sampling distributions of PAth and DAta (PA&DA). We theoretically derive the relationship between the gradient variance and the sampling distributions, and reveal that the optimal sampling probability is proportional to the normalized gradient norm of path and training data. Hence, we use the normalized gradient norm as the importance indicator for path and training data, and adopt an importance sampling strategy for the supernet training. Our method only requires negligible computation cost for optimizing the sampling distributions of path and data, but achieves lower gradient variance during supernet training and better generalization performance for the supernet, resulting in a more consistent NAS. We conduct comprehensive comparisons with other improved approaches in various search spaces. Results show that our method surpasses others with more reliable ranking performance and higher accuracy of searched architectures, showing the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/ShunLu91/PA-DA.

We report on analysis of the two-color VR CCD observations of the newly discovered variable 2MASS J18024395+4003309=VSX J180243.9+400331 obtained using the 1-m telescope of the Mt. Lemmon Observatory (LOAO) in the field of the intermediate polar V1323 Her. The extended version of this conference talk we published in 2015JASS...32..127A. The variability was reported in 2012OAP....25..150A, and the object was monitored. The two-color observations covered all phase interval. The object is classified as an Algol-type variable with tidally distorted components, and shows an asymmetry of the maxima (the O\'Connell effect). For phenomenological modeling, we used the trigonometric polynomial approximation of statistically optimal degree, and a recent method "NAV" (New Algol Variable) using local specific shapes for the eclipse. Methodological aspects are described, especially for the case of few color observations. Estimates of the physical parameters based on analysis of phenomenological parameters, are presented.

The relationship between material properties and independent variables such as temperature, external field or time, is usually represented by a curve or surface in a multi-dimensional space. Determining such a curve or surface requires a series of experiments or calculations which are often time and cost consuming. A general strategy uses an appropriate utility function to sample the space to recommend the next optimal experiment or calculation within an active learning loop. However, knowing what the optimal sampling strategy to use to minimize the number of experiments is an outstanding problem. We compare a number of strategies based on directed exploration on several materials problems of varying complexity using a Kriging based model. These include one dimensional curves such as the fatigue life curve for 304L stainless steel and the Liquidus line of the Fe-C phase diagram, surfaces such as the Hartmann 3 function in 3D space and the fitted intermolecular potential for Ar-SH, and a four dimensional data set of experimental measurements for BaTiO3 based ceramics. We also consider the effects of experimental noise on the Hartmann 3 function. We find that directed exploration guided by maximum variance provides better performance overall, converging faster across several data sets. However, for certain problems, the trade-off methods incorporating exploitation can perform at least as well, if not better than maximum variance. Thus, we discuss how the choice of the utility function depends on the distribution of the data, the model performance and uncertainties, additive noise as well as the budget.

Bridge scour is a complex phenomenon combining hydrological, geotechnical and structural processes. Bridge scour is the leading cause of bridge collapse, which can bring catastrophic consequences including the loss of life. Estimating scour on bridges is an important task for engineers assessing bridge system performance. Overestimation of scour depths during design may lead to excess spendings on construction whereas underestimation can lead to the collapse of a bridge. Many empirical equations have been developed over the years to assess scour depth at bridge piers. These equations have only been calibrated with laboratory data or very few field data. This paper compares eight equations including the UK CIRIA C742 approach to establish their accuracy using the open access USGS pier-scour database for both field and laboratory conditions. A one-at-the-time sensitivity assessment and a global sensitivity analysis were then applied to identify the most significant parameters in the eight scour equations. The paper shows that using a global approach, i.e. one where all parameters are varied simultaneously, provides more insights than a traditional one-at-the-time approach. The main findings are that the CIRIA and Froehlich equations are the most accurate equations for field conditions, and that angle of attack, pier shape and the approach flow depth are the most influential parameters. Efforts to reduce uncertainty of these three parameters would maximise increase of scour estimate precision.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have recently garnered significant attention for their innovative next-scale prediction paradigm, offering notable advantages in both inference efficiency and image quality compared to traditional multi-step autoregressive (AR) and diffusion models. However, despite their efficiency, VAR models often suffer from the diversity collapse i.e., a reduction in output variability, analogous to that observed in few-step distilled diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce DiverseVAR, a simple yet effective approach that restores the generative diversity of VAR models without requiring any additional training. Our analysis reveals the pivotal component of the feature map as a key factor governing diversity formation at early scales. By suppressing the pivotal component in the model input and amplifying it in the model output, DiverseVAR effectively unlocks the inherent generative potential of VAR models while preserving high-fidelity synthesis. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach substantially enhances generative diversity with only neglectable performance influences. Our code will be publicly released at https://github.com/wangtong627/DiverseVAR.

The success of Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) critically depends on the quality of the reward model. While this quality is primarily evaluated through accuracy, it remains unclear whether accuracy fully captures what makes a reward model an effective teacher. We address this question from an optimization perspective. First, we prove that regardless of how accurate a reward model is, if it induces low reward variance, then the RLHF objective suffers from a flat landscape. Consequently, even a perfectly accurate reward model can lead to extremely slow optimization, underperforming less accurate models that induce higher reward variance. We additionally show that a reward model that works well for one language model can induce low reward variance, and thus a flat objective landscape, for another. These results establish a fundamental limitation of evaluating reward models solely based on accuracy or independently of the language model they guide. Experiments using models of up to 8B parameters corroborate our theory, demonstrating the interplay between reward variance, accuracy, and reward maximization rate. Overall, our findings highlight that beyond accuracy, a reward model needs to induce sufficient variance for efficient optimization.

We consider in this paper the problem of optimal experiment design where a decision maker can choose which points to sample to obtain an estimate hatβ of the hidden parameter β^{star} of an underlying linear model. The key challenge of this work lies in the heteroscedasticity assumption that we make, meaning that each covariate has a different and unknown variance. The goal of the decision maker is then to figure out on the fly the optimal way to allocate the total budget of T samples between covariates, as sampling several times a specific one will reduce the variance of the estimated model around it (but at the cost of a possible higher variance elsewhere). By trying to minimize the ell^2-loss E [lVerthatβ-β^{star}rVert^2] the decision maker is actually minimizing the trace of the covariance matrix of the problem, which corresponds then to online A-optimal design. Combining techniques from bandit and convex optimization we propose a new active sampling algorithm and we compare it with existing ones. We provide theoretical guarantees of this algorithm in different settings, including a O(T^{-2}) regret bound in the case where the covariates form a basis of the feature space, generalizing and improving existing results. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.

Hypernetworks, neural networks that predict the parameters of another neural network, are powerful models that have been successfully used in diverse applications from image generation to multi-task learning. Unfortunately, existing hypernetworks are often challenging to train. Training typically converges far more slowly than for non-hypernetwork models, and the rate of convergence can be very sensitive to hyperparameter choices. In this work, we identify a fundamental and previously unidentified problem that contributes to the challenge of training hypernetworks: a magnitude proportionality between the inputs and outputs of the hypernetwork. We demonstrate both analytically and empirically that this can lead to unstable optimization, thereby slowing down convergence, and sometimes even preventing any learning. We present a simple solution to this problem using a revised hypernetwork formulation that we call Magnitude Invariant Parametrizations (MIP). We demonstrate the proposed solution on several hypernetwork tasks, where it consistently stabilizes training and achieves faster convergence. Furthermore, we perform a comprehensive ablation study including choices of activation function, normalization strategies, input dimensionality, and hypernetwork architecture; and find that MIP improves training in all scenarios. We provide easy-to-use code that can turn existing networks into MIP-based hypernetworks.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

We present the quark weak-mixing component of a Froggatt--Nielsen program, with one flavon and three messengers, in which a single hierarchy parameter B (with εequiv 1/B) and a rational-exponent ``B-lattice'' organize fermion Yukawa textures. Building on companion mass-fit work, we translate the lattice into sharp predictions for quark mixing. The four-magnitude parameterization serves as a practical interface between the flavon Yukawa textures and quark weak mixing observables, yielding coefficient-free ratio tests of the lattice structure.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Operational telemetry can be jointly anomalous while every individual stream stays inside its familiar range. TRACE-C is an auditable strictly-prior rank-calibrated detector for aligned multi-stream telemetry: same-regime rolling median/MAD residuals feed three window channels -- a maximum normalized local sum, a Gaussian copula-form dependence contrast on robust-z residuals, and a worst standardized AR(1) innovation -- whose channel ranks are Fisher-aggregated and ranked against earlier aggregates. We evaluate six Great Britain grid streams with a January-April 2019 fit, July-December 2019 development evidence, and a 2020 hold-out frozen before inspection. TRACE-C ranks Storm Atiyah first among 2019 test windows, but a disclosed channel ablation attributes that rank to the local channel, not the copula-form channel: copula-only ranks Atiyah 59th. The short 9 August frequency event is ranked far lower by the fused detector (143) than by the temporal channel alone (40), and reconstruction baselines rank it first. In 2020 no window is selected, which is consistent with record-rule saturation rather than an uneventful year; the highest-ranked frozen window was later interpreted as Storm Ellen. Three interpretive limits carry throughout. The resulting p-values are selection quantities, not event probabilities. The copula-form channel is not a literal copula density: the method applies no probability-integral or normal-score transform. Empirical rank counts are diagnostics, not coverage or false-discovery proofs. Every table and figure in this paper is generated from committed machine-readable reports.

This paper discusses the weight parametrization of two standard 1-Lipschitz network architectures, the Almost-Orthogonal-Layers (AOL) and the SDP-based Lipschitz Layers (SLL). It examines their impact on initialization for deep 1-Lipschitz feedforward networks, and discusses underlying issues surrounding this initialization. These networks are mainly used in certifiably robust classification applications to combat adversarial attacks by limiting the impact of perturbations on the classification output. Exact and upper bounds for the parameterized weight variance were calculated assuming a standard Normal distribution initialization; additionally, an upper bound was computed assuming a Generalized Normal Distribution, generalizing the proof for Uniform, Laplace, and Normal distribution weight initializations. It is demonstrated that the weight variance holds no bearing on the output variance distribution and that only the dimension of the weight matrices matters. Additionally, this paper demonstrates that the weight initialization always causes deep 1-Lipschitz networks to decay to zero.

A collection of robust Mahalanobis distances for multivariate outlier detection is proposed, based on the notion of shrinkage. Robust intensity and scaling factors are optimally estimated to define the shrinkage. Some properties are investigated, such as affine equivariance and breakdown value. The performance of the proposal is illustrated through the comparison to other techniques from the literature, in a simulation study and with a real dataset. The behavior when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed or skewed, shows the appropriateness of the method when we deviate from the common assumption of normality. The resulting high correct detection rates and low false detection rates in the vast majority of cases, as well as the significantly smaller computation time shows the advantages of our proposal.

We report a measurement of the E-mode polarization power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using 150 GHz data taken from July 2014 to December 2016 with the POLARBEAR experiment. We reach an effective polarization map noise level of 32,μK-arcmin across an observation area of 670 square degrees. We measure the EE power spectrum over the angular multipole range 500 leq ell <3000, tracing the third to seventh acoustic peaks with high sensitivity. The statistical uncertainty on E-mode bandpowers is sim 2.3 μ{rm K}^2 at ell sim 1000 with a systematic uncertainty of 0.5μ{rm K}^2. The data are consistent with the standard ΛCDM cosmological model with a probability-to-exceed of 0.38. We combine recent CMB E-mode measurements and make inferences about cosmological parameters in ΛCDM as well as in extensions to ΛCDM. Adding the ground-based CMB polarization measurements to the Planck dataset reduces the uncertainty on the Hubble constant by a factor of 1.2 to H_0 = 67.20 pm 0.57 {rm km,s^{-1} ,Mpc^{-1}}. When allowing the number of relativistic species (N_{eff}) to vary, we find N_{eff} = 2.94 pm 0.16, which is in good agreement with the standard value of 3.046. Instead allowing the primordial helium abundance (Y_{He}) to vary, the data favor Y_{He} = 0.248 pm 0.012. This is very close to the expectation of 0.2467 from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. When varying both Y_{He} and N_{eff}, we find N_{eff} = 2.70 pm 0.26 and Y_{He} = 0.262 pm 0.015.

Neural scaling laws define a predictable relationship between a model's parameter count and its performance after training in the form of a power law. However, most research to date has not explicitly investigated whether scaling laws can be used to accelerate model development. In this work, we perform such an empirical investigation across a wide range of language understanding tasks, starting from models with as few as 10K parameters, and evaluate downstream performance across 9 language understanding tasks. We find that scaling laws emerge at finetuning time in some NLP tasks, and that they can also be exploited for debugging convergence when training large models. Moreover, for tasks where scaling laws exist, they can be used to predict the performance of larger models, which enables effective model selection. However, revealing scaling laws requires careful hyperparameter tuning and multiple runs for the purpose of uncertainty estimation, which incurs additional overhead, partially offsetting the computational benefits.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

Gravitational waves from merging binary neutron stars carry characteristic information about their astrophysical properties, including masses and tidal deformabilities, that are needed to infer their radii. In this study, we use Bayesian inference to quantify the precision with which radius can inferred with upgrades in the current gravitational wave detectors and next-generation observatories such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer. We assign evidences for a set of plausible equations of state, which are then used as weights to obtain radius posteriors. We find that prior choices and the loudness of observed signals limit the precision and accuracy of inferred radii by current detectors. In contrast, next-generation observatories can resolve the radius precisely and accurately, across most of the mass range to within lesssim 5% for both soft and stiff equations of state. We also explore how the choice of the neutron star mass prior can influence the inferred masses and potentially affect radii measurements, finding that choosing an astrophysically motivated prior does not notably impact an individual neutron star's radius measurements.

Multimodal learning often encounters the under-optimized problem and may perform worse than unimodal learning. Existing approaches attribute this issue to imbalanced learning across modalities and tend to address it through gradient balancing. However, this paper argues that balanced learning is not the optimal setting for multimodal learning. With bias-variance analysis, we prove that imbalanced dependency on each modality obeying the inverse ratio of their variances contributes to optimal performance. To this end, we propose the Asymmetric Representation Learning(ARL) strategy to assist multimodal learning via imbalanced optimization. ARL introduces auxiliary regularizers for each modality encoder to calculate their prediction variance. ARL then calculates coefficients via the unimodal variance to re-weight the optimization of each modality, forcing the modality dependence ratio to be inversely proportional to the modality variance ratio. Moreover, to minimize the generalization error, ARL further introduces the prediction bias of each modality and jointly optimizes them with multimodal loss. Notably, all auxiliary regularizers share parameters with the multimodal model and rely only on the modality representation. Thus the proposed ARL strategy introduces no extra parameters and is independent of the structures and fusion methods of the multimodal model. Finally, extensive experiments on various datasets validate the effectiveness and versatility of ARL. Code is available at https://github.com/shicaiwei123/ICCV2025-ARL{https://github.com/shicaiwei123/ICCV2025-ARL}

Climbing grades are used to classify a climbing route based on its perceived difficulty, and have come to play a central role in the sport of rock climbing. Recently, the first statistically rigorous method for estimating climbing grades from whole-history ascent data was described, based on the dynamic Bradley-Terry model for games between players of time-varying ability. In this paper, we implement inference under the whole-history rating model using Markov chain Monte Carlo and apply the method to a curated data set made up of climbers who climb regularly. We use these data to get an estimate of the model's fundamental scale parameter m, which defines the proportional increase in difficulty associated with an increment of grade. We show that the data conform to assumptions that the climbing grade scale is a logarithmic scale of difficulty, like decibels or stellar magnitude. We estimate that an increment in Ewbank, French and UIAA climbing grade systems corresponds to 2.1, 2.09 and 2.13 times increase in difficulty respectively, assuming a logistic model of probability of success as a function of grade. Whereas we find that the Vermin scale for bouldering (V-grade scale) corresponds to a 3.17 increase in difficulty per grade increment. In addition, we highlight potential connections between the logarithmic properties of climbing grade scales and the psychophysical laws of Weber and Fechner.

With an increasing number of replication studies performed in psychological science, the question of how to evaluate the outcome of a replication attempt deserves careful consideration. Bayesian approaches allow to incorporate uncertainty and prior information into the analysis of the replication attempt by their design. The Replication Bayes Factor, introduced by Verhagen & Wagenmakers (2014), provides quantitative, relative evidence in favor or against a successful replication. In previous work by Verhagen & Wagenmakers (2014) it was limited to the case of t-tests. In this paper, the Replication Bayes Factor is extended to F-tests in multi-group, fixed-effect ANOVA designs. Simulations and examples are presented to facilitate the understanding and to demonstrate the usefulness of this approach. Finally, the Replication Bayes Factor is compared to other Bayesian and frequentist approaches and discussed in the context of replication attempts. R code to calculate Replication Bayes factors and to reproduce the examples in the paper is available at https://osf.io/jv39h/.

Text-to-image generation with visual autoregressive~(VAR) models has recently achieved impressive advances in generation fidelity and inference efficiency. While control mechanisms have been explored for diffusion models, enabling precise and flexible control within VAR paradigm remains underexplored. To bridge this critical gap, in this paper, we introduce ScaleWeaver, a novel framework designed to achieve high-fidelity, controllable generation upon advanced VAR models through parameter-efficient fine-tuning. The core module in ScaleWeaver is the improved MMDiT block with the proposed Reference Attention module, which efficiently and effectively incorporates conditional information. Different from MM Attention, the proposed Reference Attention module discards the unnecessary attention from imagerightarrowcondition, reducing computational cost while stabilizing control injection. Besides, it strategically emphasizes parameter reuse, leveraging the capability of the VAR backbone itself with a few introduced parameters to process control information, and equipping a zero-initialized linear projection to ensure that control signals are incorporated effectively without disrupting the generative capability of the base model. Extensive experiments show that ScaleWeaver delivers high-quality generation and precise control while attaining superior efficiency over diffusion-based methods, making ScaleWeaver a practical and effective solution for controllable text-to-image generation within the visual autoregressive paradigm. Code and models will be released.

We use EDGES measurements to determine scale and zero-level corrections to the diffuse radio surveys by Guzmán et al. at 45 MHz and Landecker & Wielebinski at 150 MHz. We find that the Guzmán et al. map requires a scale correction of 1.076 pm 0.034 (2σ) and a zero-level correction of -160 pm 78 K (2σ) to best-fit the EDGES data. For the Landecker & Wielebinski map, the scale correction is 1.112 pm 0.023 (2σ) and the zero-level correction is 0.7 pm 6.0 K (2σ). The correction uncertainties are dominated by systematic effects, of which the most significant are uncertainty in the calibration of the EDGES receivers, antenna pointing, and tropospheric and ionospheric effects. We propagate the correction uncertainties to estimate the uncertainties in the corrected maps themselves and find that the 2σ uncertainty in the map brightness temperature is in the range 3.2-7.5% for the Guzmán et al. map and 2.1-9.0% for the Landecker & Wielebinski map, with the largest percent uncertainties occurring at high Galactic latitudes. The corrected maps could be used to improve existing diffuse low-frequency radio sky models, which are essential tools in analyses of cosmological 21 cm observations, as well as to investigate the existence of a radio monopole excess above the cosmic microwave background and known Galactic and extragalactic contributions.