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Sep 30

Performance Scaling via Optimal Transport: Enabling Data Selection from Partially Revealed Sources

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 5, 2023

Deep Stochastic Kinematic Models for Probabilistic Motion Forecasting in Traffic

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 3, 2024

A hybrid deep-learning-metaheuristic framework for bi-level network design problems

This study proposes a hybrid deep-learning-metaheuristic framework with a bi-level architecture for road network design problems (NDPs). We train a graph neural network (GNN) to approximate the solution of the user equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment problem and use inferences made by the trained model to calculate fitness function evaluations of a genetic algorithm (GA) to approximate solutions for NDPs. Using three test networks, two NDP variants and an exact solver as benchmark, we show that on average, our proposed framework can provide solutions within 1.5% gap of the best results in less than 0.5% of the time used by the exact solution procedure. Our framework can be utilized within an expert system for infrastructure planning to determine the best infrastructure planning and management decisions under different scenarios. Given the flexibility of the framework, it can easily be adapted to many other decision problems that can be modeled as bi-level problems on graphs. Moreover, we foreseen interesting future research directions, thus we also put forward a brief research agenda for this topic. The key observation from our research that can shape future research is that the fitness function evaluation time using the inferences made by the GNN model was in the order of milliseconds, which points to an opportunity and a need for novel heuristics that 1) can cope well with noisy fitness function values provided by deep learning models, and 2) can use the significantly enlarged efficiency of the evaluation step to explore the search space effectively (rather than efficiently). This opens a new avenue for a modern class of metaheuristics that are crafted for use with AI-powered predictors.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 10, 2023

The OPNV Data Collection: A Dataset for Infrastructure-Supported Perception Research with Focus on Public Transportation

This paper we present our vision and ongoing work for a novel dataset designed to advance research into the interoperability of intelligent vehicles and infrastructure, specifically aimed at enhancing cooperative perception and interaction in the realm of public transportation. Unlike conventional datasets centered on ego-vehicle data, this approach encompasses both a stationary sensor tower and a moving vehicle, each equipped with cameras, LiDARs, and GNSS, while the vehicle additionally includes an inertial navigation system. Our setup features comprehensive calibration and time synchronization, ensuring seamless and accurate sensor data fusion crucial for studying complex, dynamic scenes. Emphasizing public transportation, the dataset targets to include scenes like bus station maneuvers and driving on dedicated bus lanes, reflecting the specifics of small public buses. We introduce the open-source ".4mse" file format for the new dataset, accompanied by a research kit. This kit provides tools such as ego-motion compensation or LiDAR-to-camera projection enabling advanced research on intelligent vehicle-infrastructure integration. Our approach does not include annotations; however, we plan to implement automatically generated labels sourced from state-of-the-art public repositories. Several aspects are still up for discussion, and timely feedback from the community would be greatly appreciated. A sneak preview on one data frame will be available at a Google Colab Notebook. Moreover, we will use the related GitHub Repository to collect remarks and suggestions.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 11, 2024

Parallel Bayesian Optimization of Agent-based Transportation Simulation

MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit) is an open source large-scale agent-based transportation planning project applied to various areas like road transport, public transport, freight transport, regional evacuation, etc. BEAM (Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility) framework extends MATSim to enable powerful and scalable analysis of urban transportation systems. The agents from the BEAM simulation exhibit 'mode choice' behavior based on multinomial logit model. In our study, we consider eight mode choices viz. bike, car, walk, ride hail, driving to transit, walking to transit, ride hail to transit, and ride hail pooling. The 'alternative specific constants' for each mode choice are critical hyperparameters in a configuration file related to a particular scenario under experimentation. We use the 'Urbansim-10k' BEAM scenario (with 10,000 population size) for all our experiments. Since these hyperparameters affect the simulation in complex ways, manual calibration methods are time consuming. We present a parallel Bayesian optimization method with early stopping rule to achieve fast convergence for the given multi-in-multi-out problem to its optimal configurations. Our model is based on an open source HpBandSter package. This approach combines hierarchy of several 1D Kernel Density Estimators (KDE) with a cheap evaluator (Hyperband, a single multidimensional KDE). Our model has also incorporated extrapolation based early stopping rule. With our model, we could achieve a 25% L1 norm for a large-scale BEAM simulation in fully autonomous manner. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first of its kind applied to large-scale multi-agent transportation simulations. This work can be useful for surrogate modeling of scenarios with very large populations.

Are Work Zones and Connected Automated Vehicles Ready for a Harmonious Coexistence? A Scoping Review and Research Agenda

The recent advent of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) is expected to transform the transportation system. CAV technologies are being developed rapidly and they are foreseen to penetrate the market at a rapid pace. On the other hand, work zones (WZs) have become common areas on highway systems as a result of the increasing construction and maintenance activities. The near future will therefore bring the coexistence of CAVs and WZs which makes their interaction inevitable. WZs expose all vehicles to a sudden and complex geometric change in the roadway environment, something that may challenge many of CAV navigation capabilities. WZs however also impose a space contraction resulting in adverse traffic impacts, something that legitimately calls for benefiting from the highly efficient CAV functions. CAVs should be able to reliably traverse WZ geometry and WZs should benefit from CAV intelligent functions. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art and the key concepts, opportunities, and challenges of deploying CAV systems at WZs. The reviewed subjects include traffic performance and behaviour, technologies and infrastructure, and regulatory considerations. Eighteen CAV mobility, safety, and environmental concepts and functions were distributed over the WZ area which was subdivided into five segments: further upstream, approach area, queuing area, WZ activity, and termination area. In addition, among other topics reviewed and discussed are detection of WZ features, smart traffic control devices, various technologies at connected WZs, cross-border harmonization, liability, insurance, and privacy. The paper also provides a research agenda with a list of research needs supported by experts rating and inputs. The paper aims to provide a bird eye view, but with necessary details that can benefit researchers, practitioners, and transportation agencies.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 29, 2021

Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Dataset

As autonomous driving systems mature, motion forecasting has received increasing attention as a critical requirement for planning. Of particular importance are interactive situations such as merges, unprotected turns, etc., where predicting individual object motion is not sufficient. Joint predictions of multiple objects are required for effective route planning. There has been a critical need for high-quality motion data that is rich in both interactions and annotation to develop motion planning models. In this work, we introduce the most diverse interactive motion dataset to our knowledge, and provide specific labels for interacting objects suitable for developing joint prediction models. With over 100,000 scenes, each 20 seconds long at 10 Hz, our new dataset contains more than 570 hours of unique data over 1750 km of roadways. It was collected by mining for interesting interactions between vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists across six cities within the United States. We use a high-accuracy 3D auto-labeling system to generate high quality 3D bounding boxes for each road agent, and provide corresponding high definition 3D maps for each scene. Furthermore, we introduce a new set of metrics that provides a comprehensive evaluation of both single agent and joint agent interaction motion forecasting models. Finally, we provide strong baseline models for individual-agent prediction and joint-prediction. We hope that this new large-scale interactive motion dataset will provide new opportunities for advancing motion forecasting models.

  • 18 authors
·
Apr 19, 2021

Building a Safer Maritime Environment Through Multi-Path Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Forecasting

Maritime transportation is paramount in achieving global economic growth, entailing concurrent ecological obligations in sustainability and safeguarding endangered marine species, most notably preserving large whale populations. In this regard, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays a significant role by offering real-time streaming data on vessel movement, allowing enhanced traffic monitoring. This study explores using AIS data to prevent vessel-to-whale collisions by forecasting long-term vessel trajectories from engineered AIS data sequences. For such a task, we have developed an encoder-decoder model architecture using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (Bi-LSTM) to predict the next 12 hours of vessel trajectories using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data as input. We feed the model with probabilistic features engineered from historical AIS data that refer to each trajectory's potential route and destination. The model then predicts the vessel's trajectory, considering these additional features by leveraging convolutional layers for spatial feature learning and a position-aware attention mechanism that increases the importance of recent timesteps of a sequence during temporal feature learning. The probabilistic features have an F1 Score of approximately 85% and 75% for each feature type, respectively, demonstrating their effectiveness in augmenting information to the neural network. We test our model on the Gulf of St. Lawrence, a region known to be the habitat of North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW). Our model achieved a high R2 score of over 98% using various techniques and features. It stands out among other approaches as it can make complex decisions during turnings and path selection. Our study highlights the potential of data engineering and trajectory forecasting models for marine life species preservation.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 29, 2023

TourPlanner: A Competitive Consensus Framework with Constraint-Gated Reinforcement Learning for Travel Planning

Travel planning is a sophisticated decision-making process that requires synthesizing multifaceted information to construct itineraries. However, existing travel planning approaches face several challenges: (1) Pruning candidate points of interest (POIs) while maintaining a high recall rate; (2) A single reasoning path restricts the exploration capability within the feasible solution space for travel planning; (3) Simultaneously optimizing hard constraints and soft constraints remains a significant difficulty. To address these challenges, we propose TourPlanner, a comprehensive framework featuring multi-path reasoning and constraint-gated reinforcement learning. Specifically, we first introduce a Personalized Recall and Spatial Optimization (PReSO) workflow to construct spatially-aware candidate POIs' set. Subsequently, we propose Competitive consensus Chain-of-Thought (CCoT), a multi-path reasoning paradigm that improves the ability of exploring the feasible solution space. To further refine the plan, we integrate a sigmoid-based gating mechanism into the reinforcement learning stage, which dynamically prioritizes soft-constraint satisfaction only after hard constraints are met. Experimental results on travel planning benchmarks demonstrate that TourPlanner achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly surpassing existing methods in both feasibility and user-preference alignment.

  • 8 authors
·
Jan 8 3

Graph Learning-based Fleet Scheduling for Urban Air Mobility under Operational Constraints, Varying Demand & Uncertainties

This paper develops a graph reinforcement learning approach to online planning of the schedule and destinations of electric aircraft that comprise an urban air mobility (UAM) fleet operating across multiple vertiports. This fleet scheduling problem is formulated to consider time-varying demand, constraints related to vertiport capacity, aircraft capacity and airspace safety guidelines, uncertainties related to take-off delay, weather-induced route closures, and unanticipated aircraft downtime. Collectively, such a formulation presents greater complexity, and potentially increased realism, than in existing UAM fleet planning implementations. To address these complexities, a new policy architecture is constructed, primary components of which include: graph capsule conv-nets for encoding vertiport and aircraft-fleet states both abstracted as graphs; transformer layers encoding time series information on demand and passenger fare; and a Multi-head Attention-based decoder that uses the encoded information to compute the probability of selecting each available destination for an aircraft. Trained with Proximal Policy Optimization, this policy architecture shows significantly better performance in terms of daily averaged profits on unseen test scenarios involving 8 vertiports and 40 aircraft, when compared to a random baseline and genetic algorithm-derived optimal solutions, while being nearly 1000 times faster in execution than the latter.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 9, 2024

Vehicle Energy Dataset (VED), A Large-scale Dataset for Vehicle Energy Consumption Research

We present Vehicle Energy Dataset (VED), a novel large-scale dataset of fuel and energy data collected from 383 personal cars in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. This open dataset captures GPS trajectories of vehicles along with their time-series data of fuel, energy, speed, and auxiliary power usage. A diverse fleet consisting of 264 gasoline vehicles, 92 HEVs, and 27 PHEV/EVs drove in real-world from Nov, 2017 to Nov, 2018, where the data were collected through onboard OBD-II loggers. Driving scenarios range from highways to traffic-dense downtown area in various driving conditions and seasons. In total, VED accumulates approximately 374,000 miles. We discuss participant privacy protection and develop a method to de-identify personally identifiable information while preserving the quality of the data. After the de-identification, we conducted case studies on the dataset to investigate the impacts of factors known to affect fuel economy and identify energy-saving opportunities that hybrid-electric vehicles and eco-driving techniques can provide. The case studies are supplemented with a number of examples to demonstrate how VED can be utilized for vehicle energy and behavior studies. Potential research opportunities include data-driven vehicle energy consumption modeling, driver behavior modeling, machine and deep learning, calibration of traffic simulators, optimal route choice modeling, prediction of human driver behaviors, and decision making of self-driving cars. We believe that VED can be an instrumental asset to the development of future automotive technologies. The dataset can be accessed at https://github.com/gsoh/VED.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 19, 2019

Satellite Connectivity Prediction for Fast-Moving Platforms

Satellite connectivity is gaining increased attention as the demand for seamless internet access, especially in transportation and remote areas, continues to grow. For fast-moving objects such as aircraft, vehicles, or trains, satellite connectivity is critical due to their mobility and frequent presence in areas without terrestrial coverage. Maintaining reliable connectivity in these cases requires frequent switching between satellite beams, constellations, or orbits. To enhance user experience and address challenges like long switching times, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can analyze historical connectivity data and predict network quality at specific locations. This allows for proactive measures, such as network switching before connectivity issues arise. In this paper, we analyze a real dataset of communication between a Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellite and aircraft over multiple flights, using ML to predict signal quality. Our prediction model achieved an F1 score of 0.97 on the test data, demonstrating the accuracy of machine learning in predicting signal quality during flight. By enabling seamless broadband service, including roaming between different satellite constellations and providers, our model addresses the need for real-time predictions of signal quality. This approach can further be adapted to automate satellite and beam-switching mechanisms to improve overall communication efficiency. The model can also be retrained and applied to any moving object with satellite connectivity, using customized datasets, including connected vehicles and trains.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 22, 2025

IntTravel: A Real-World Dataset and Generative Framework for Integrated Multi-Task Travel Recommendation

Next Point of Interest (POI) recommendation is essential for modern mobility and location-based services. To provide a smooth user experience, models must understand several components of a journey holistically: "when to depart", "how to travel", "where to go", and "what needs arise via the route". However, current research is limited by fragmented datasets that focus merely on next POI recommendation ("where to go"), neglecting the departure time, travel mode, and situational requirements along the journey. Furthermore, the limited scale of these datasets impedes accurate evaluation of performance. To bridge this gap, we introduce IntTravel, the first large-scale public dataset for integrated travel recommendation, including 4.1 billion interactions from 163 million users with 7.3 million POIs. Built upon this dataset, we introduce an end-to-end, decoder-only generative framework for multi-task recommendation. It incorporates information preservation, selection, and factorization to balance task collaboration with specialized differentiation, yielding substantial performance gains. The framework's generalizability is highlighted by its state-of-the-art performance across both IntTravel dataset and an additional non-travel benchmark. IntTravel has been successfully deployed on Amap serving hundreds of millions of users, leading to a 1.09% increase in CTR. IntTravel is available at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/IntTravel.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 12

Eyes Will Shut: A Vision-Based Next GPS Location Prediction Model by Reinforcement Learning from Visual Map Feed Back

Next Location Prediction is a fundamental task in the study of human mobility, with wide-ranging applications in transportation planning, urban governance, and epidemic forecasting. In practice, when humans attempt to predict the next location in a trajectory, they often visualize the trajectory on a map and reason based on road connectivity and movement trends. However, the vast majority of existing next-location prediction models do not reason over maps in the way that humans do. Fortunately, the recent development of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) has demonstrated strong capabilities in visual perception and even visual reasoning. This opens up a new possibility: by rendering both the road network and trajectory onto an image and leveraging the reasoning abilities of VLMs, we can enable models to perform trajectory inference in a human-like manner. To explore this idea, we first propose a method called Vision-Guided Location Search (VGLS), which evaluates whether a general-purpose VLM is capable of trajectory-based reasoning without modifying any of its internal parameters. Based on insights from the VGLS results, we further propose our main approach: VLMLocPredictor, which is composed of two stages: In the first stage, we design two Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) tasks that help the VLM understand road network and trajectory structures and acquire basic reasoning ability on such visual inputs. In the second stage, we introduce Reinforcement Learning from Visual Map Feedback, enabling the model to self-improve its next-location prediction ability through interaction with the environment. Experiments conducted on datasets from four different cities show that our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and exhibits superior cross-city generalization compared to other LLM-based approaches.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 23, 2025

Deep Activity Model: A Generative Approach for Human Mobility Pattern Synthesis

Human mobility plays a crucial role in transportation, urban planning, and public health. Advances in deep learning and the availability of diverse mobility data have transformed mobility modeling. However, existing deep learning models often focus on spatio-temporal patterns and struggle to capture the semantic interdependencies among activities, while also being limited by specific data sources. These challenges reduce their realism and adaptability. Traditional activity-based models (ABMs) face issues as well, relying on rigid assumptions and requiring extensive data, making them costly and difficult to adapt to new regions, especially those with limited conventional travel data. To address these limitations, we develop a novel generative deep learning approach for human mobility modeling and synthesis that incorporates both activity patterns and location trajectories using open-source data. The model can be fine-tuned with local data, allowing it to adapt to and accurately represent mobility patterns across diverse regions. The model is evaluated on a nationwide dataset of the United States, where it demonstrates superior performance in generating activity-location chains that closely follow ground truth distributions. Further tests using state- or city-specific datasets from California, Washington, and Mexico City confirm its transferability. This innovative approach offers substantial potential to advance mobility modeling research, particularly in generating synthetic human mobility data. This can provide urban planners and policymakers with enhanced tools for simulating mobility in diverse regions and better informing decisions related to transportation, urban development, and public health.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 2, 2024

AlphaTransit: Learning to Design City-scale Transit Routes

Designing a transit network requires many sequential route extension decisions, but their quality is often visible only after the full network is assembled. This delayed-feedback challenge lies at the heart of the Transit Route Network Design Problem (TRNDP), where route interactions can be deceptive: an extension that appears useful locally can create transfer bottlenecks, produce redundant overlap, or reduce overall throughput. To guide route construction under delayed simulator feedback, we introduce AlphaTransit, a search-based planning framework for cityscale bus network design. AlphaTransit couples Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with a neural policy-value network: the policy proposes route extensions, the value estimates downstream design quality, and search uses these predictions to refine each decision. This provides decision-time lookahead during route construction without running simulator rollouts inside the search tree. We evaluate AlphaTransit on a new Bloomington TRNDP benchmark with realistic road topology and censusderived demand, under mixed and full transit demand settings. In the Bloomington network, AlphaTransit attains the highest service rate in both demand settings, reaching 54.6% and 82.1%, respectively. Relative to reinforcement learning without search, these correspond to 9.9% and 11.4% service rate gains; relative to MCTS without learned guidance, they correspond to 2.5% and 11.2% gains. These results suggest that coupling learned guidance with MCTS is more effective than using either approach alone for transit network design. Our code and data are publicly available in https://github.com/poudel-bibek/AlphaTransit.

  • 3 authors
·
May 26 2

DeepTravel: An End-to-End Agentic Reinforcement Learning Framework for Autonomous Travel Planning Agents

Travel planning (TP) agent has recently worked as an emerging building block to interact with external tools and resources for travel itinerary generation, ensuring enjoyable user experience. Despite its benefits, existing studies rely on hand craft prompt and fixed agent workflow, hindering more flexible and autonomous TP agent. This paper proposes DeepTravel, an end to end agentic reinforcement learning framework for building autonomous travel planning agent, capable of autonomously planning, executing tools, and reflecting on tool responses to explore, verify, and refine intermediate actions in multi step reasoning. To achieve this, we first construct a robust sandbox environment by caching transportation, accommodation and POI data, facilitating TP agent training without being constrained by real world APIs limitations (e.g., inconsistent outputs). Moreover, we develop a hierarchical reward modeling system, where a trajectory level verifier first checks spatiotemporal feasibility and filters unsatisfied travel itinerary, and then the turn level verifier further validate itinerary detail consistency with tool responses, enabling efficient and precise reward service. Finally, we propose the reply augmented reinforcement learning method that enables TP agent to periodically replay from a failures experience buffer, emerging notable agentic capacity. We deploy trained TP agent on DiDi Enterprise Solutions App and conduct comprehensive online and offline evaluations, demonstrating that DeepTravel enables small size LLMs (e.g., Qwen3 32B) to significantly outperform existing frontier LLMs such as OpenAI o1, o3 and DeepSeek R1 in travel planning tasks.

Didichuxing Didi Chuxing
·
Sep 26, 2025 2

SF-LIFE: A Large-Scale Simulated Movement Dataset for the San Francisco Bay Area

We introduce SF-LIFE, a large-scale simulated movement dataset designed to accelerate research in transportation, mobility, and machine learning. The dataset contains 3,024,000,000,000 location records capturing complete, noise-free, multi-modality trajectories of 500,000 simulated agents observed at a 1Hz frequency navigating the San Francisco Bay Area network over a 70-day period. The data captures (1) needs-driven daily agendas of individual agents generated by an agent-based simulation of human patterns of life and (2) detailed kinematic trajectories moving agents across the OpenStreetMap representation of San Francisco using data from 40+ transit agencies across 9 counties. SF-LIFE provides unprecedented scale and detail as trajectories are based on real transit infrastructure using San Francisco General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data, having agent movements across multiple modalities, including bus, rail, bike, automobile, and walking. For this high-fidelity simulated representation of San Francisco, we provide (1) the full trajectory data annotated with transportation mode labels, (2) reduced-size versions of the trajectory data with reduced temporal frequency, (3) agent activity information describing the causal activity why an agent visits a place, (4) agent demographic data, and (5) the underlying OSM road network and building data. As the first dataset of its scale and level of detail, SF-LIFE overcomes the privacy, noise, and completeness limitations inherent in real-world tracking data, providing a robust and ethically sourced resource for research in transit optimization, human mobility analysis, and urban computing.

  • 17 authors
·
May 28

Location based Probabilistic Load Forecasting of EV Charging Sites: Deep Transfer Learning with Multi-Quantile Temporal Convolutional Network

Electrification of vehicles is a potential way of reducing fossil fuel usage and thus lessening environmental pollution. Electric Vehicles (EVs) of various types for different transport modes (including air, water, and land) are evolving. Moreover, different EV user groups (commuters, commercial or domestic users, drivers) may use different charging infrastructures (public, private, home, and workplace) at various times. Therefore, usage patterns and energy demand are very stochastic. Characterizing and forecasting the charging demand of these diverse EV usage profiles is essential in preventing power outages. Previously developed data-driven load models are limited to specific use cases and locations. None of these models are simultaneously adaptive enough to transfer knowledge of day-ahead forecasting among EV charging sites of diverse locations, trained with limited data, and cost-effective. This article presents a location-based load forecasting of EV charging sites using a deep Multi-Quantile Temporal Convolutional Network (MQ-TCN) to overcome the limitations of earlier models. We conducted our experiments on data from four charging sites, namely Caltech, JPL, Office-1, and NREL, which have diverse EV user types like students, full-time and part-time employees, random visitors, etc. With a Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP) score of 93.62\%, our proposed deep MQ-TCN model exhibited a remarkable 28.93\% improvement over the XGBoost model for a day-ahead load forecasting at the JPL charging site. By transferring knowledge with the inductive Transfer Learning (TL) approach, the MQ-TCN model achieved a 96.88\% PICP score for the load forecasting task at the NREL site using only two weeks of data.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 18, 2024

Gravity-Informed Deep Learning Framework for Predicting Ship Traffic Flow and Invasion Risk of Non-Indigenous Species via Ballast Water Discharge

Invasive species in water bodies pose a major threat to the environment and biodiversity globally. Due to increased transportation and trade, non-native species have been introduced to new environments, causing damage to ecosystems and leading to economic losses in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Therefore, there is a pressing need for risk assessment and management techniques to mitigate the impact of these invasions. This study aims to develop a new physics-inspired model to forecast maritime shipping traffic and thus inform risk assessment of invasive species spread through global transportation networks. Inspired by the gravity model for international trades, our model considers various factors that influence the likelihood and impact of vessel activities, such as shipping flux density, distance between ports, trade flow, and centrality measures of transportation hubs. Additionally, by analyzing the risk network of invasive species, we provide a comprehensive framework for assessing the invasion threat level given a pair of origin and destination. Accordingly, this paper introduces transformers to gravity models to rebuild the short- and long-term dependencies that make the risk analysis feasible. Thus, we introduce a physics-inspired framework that achieves an 89% segmentation accuracy for existing and non-existing trajectories and an 84.8% accuracy for the number of vessels flowing between key port areas, representing more than 10% improvement over the traditional deep-gravity model. Along these lines, this research contributes to a better understanding of invasive species risk assessment. It allows policymakers, conservationists, and stakeholders to prioritize management actions by identifying high-risk invasion pathways. Besides, our model is versatile and can include new data sources, making it suitable for assessing species invasion risks in a changing global landscape.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 23, 2024

MobilityBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Route-Planning Agents in Real-World Mobility Scenarios

Route-planning agents powered by large language models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for supporting everyday human mobility through natural language interaction and tool-mediated decision making. However, systematic evaluation in real-world mobility settings is hindered by diverse routing demands, non-deterministic mapping services, and limited reproducibility. In this study, we introduce MobilityBench, a scalable benchmark for evaluating LLM-based route-planning agents in real-world mobility scenarios. MobilityBench is constructed from large-scale, anonymized real user queries collected from Amap and covers a broad spectrum of route-planning intents across multiple cities worldwide. To enable reproducible, end-to-end evaluation, we design a deterministic API-replay sandbox that eliminates environmental variance from live services. We further propose a multi-dimensional evaluation protocol centered on outcome validity, complemented by assessments of instruction understanding, planning, tool use, and efficiency. Using MobilityBench, we evaluate multiple LLM-based route-planning agents across diverse real-world mobility scenarios and provide an in-depth analysis of their behaviors and performance. Our findings reveal that current models perform competently on Basic information retrieval and Route Planning tasks, yet struggle considerably with Preference-Constrained Route Planning, underscoring significant room for improvement in personalized mobility applications. We publicly release the benchmark data, evaluation toolkit, and documentation at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/MobilityBench .

AGI-LAB-HF AGI Lab
·
Feb 26 4

TITAN: Future Forecast using Action Priors

We consider the problem of predicting the future trajectory of scene agents from egocentric views obtained from a moving platform. This problem is important in a variety of domains, particularly for autonomous systems making reactive or strategic decisions in navigation. In an attempt to address this problem, we introduce TITAN (Trajectory Inference using Targeted Action priors Network), a new model that incorporates prior positions, actions, and context to forecast future trajectory of agents and future ego-motion. In the absence of an appropriate dataset for this task, we created the TITAN dataset that consists of 700 labeled video-clips (with odometry) captured from a moving vehicle on highly interactive urban traffic scenes in Tokyo. Our dataset includes 50 labels including vehicle states and actions, pedestrian age groups, and targeted pedestrian action attributes that are organized hierarchically corresponding to atomic, simple/complex-contextual, transportive, and communicative actions. To evaluate our model, we conducted extensive experiments on the TITAN dataset, revealing significant performance improvement against baselines and state-of-the-art algorithms. We also report promising results from our Agent Importance Mechanism (AIM), a module which provides insight into assessment of perceived risk by calculating the relative influence of each agent on the future ego-trajectory. The dataset is available at https://usa.honda-ri.com/titan

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 30, 2020

GenMRP: A Generative Multi-Route Planning Framework for Efficient and Personalized Real-Time Industrial Navigation

Existing industrial-scale navigation applications contend with massive road networks, typically employing two main categories of approaches for route planning. The first relies on precomputed road costs for optimal routing and heuristic algorithms for generating alternatives, while the second, generative methods, has recently gained significant attention. However, the former struggles with personalization and route diversity, while the latter fails to meet the efficiency requirements of large-scale real-time scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose GenMRP, a generative framework for multi-route planning. To ensure generation efficiency, GenMRP first introduces a skeleton-to-capillary approach that dynamically constructs a relevant sub-network significantly smaller than the full road network. Within this sub-network, routes are generated iteratively. The first iteration identifies the optimal route, while the subsequent ones generate alternatives that balance quality and diversity using the newly proposed correctional boosting approach. Each iteration incorporates road features, user historical sequences, and previously generated routes into a Link Cost Model to update road costs, followed by route generation using the Dijkstra algorithm. Extensive experiments show that GenMRP achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency in both offline and online environments. To facilitate further research, we have publicly released the training and evaluation dataset. GenMRP has been fully deployed in a real-world navigation app, demonstrating its effectiveness and benefits.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 3

Reconstructing commuters network using machine learning and urban indicators

Human mobility has a significant impact on several layers of society, from infrastructural planning and economics to the spread of diseases and crime. Representing the system as a complex network, in which nodes are assigned to regions (e.g., a city) and links indicate the flow of people between two of them, physics-inspired models have been proposed to quantify the number of people migrating from one city to the other. Despite the advances made by these models, our ability to predict the number of commuters and reconstruct mobility networks remains limited. Here, we propose an alternative approach using machine learning and 22 urban indicators to predict the flow of people and reconstruct the intercity commuters network. Our results reveal that predictions based on machine learning algorithms and urban indicators can reconstruct the commuters network with 90.4% of accuracy and describe 77.6% of the variance observed in the flow of people between cities. We also identify essential features to recover the network structure and the urban indicators mostly related to commuting patterns. As previously reported, distance plays a significant role in commuting, but other indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate, are also driven-forces for people to commute. We believe that our results shed new lights on the modeling of migration and reinforce the role of urban indicators on commuting patterns. Also, because link-prediction and network reconstruction are still open challenges in network science, our results have implications in other areas, like economics, social sciences, and biology, where node attributes can give us information about the existence of links connecting entities in the network.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 9, 2019

Getting SMARTER for Motion Planning in Autonomous Driving Systems

Motion planning is a fundamental problem in autonomous driving and perhaps the most challenging to comprehensively evaluate because of the associated risks and expenses of real-world deployment. Therefore, simulations play an important role in efficient development of planning algorithms. To be effective, simulations must be accurate and realistic, both in terms of dynamics and behavior modeling, and also highly customizable in order to accommodate a broad spectrum of research frameworks. In this paper, we introduce SMARTS 2.0, the second generation of our motion planning simulator which, in addition to being highly optimized for large-scale simulation, provides many new features, such as realistic map integration, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication, traffic and pedestrian simulation, and a broad variety of sensor models. Moreover, we present a novel benchmark suite for evaluating planning algorithms in various highly challenging scenarios, including interactive driving, such as turning at intersections, and adaptive driving, in which the task is to closely follow a lead vehicle without any explicit knowledge of its intention. Each scenario is characterized by a variety of traffic patterns and road structures. We further propose a series of common and task-specific metrics to effectively evaluate the performance of the planning algorithms. At the end, we evaluate common motion planning algorithms using the proposed benchmark and highlight the challenges the proposed scenarios impose. The new SMARTS 2.0 features and the benchmark are publicly available at github.com/huawei-noah/SMARTS.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 19, 2025

Urban Spatio-Temporal Foundation Models for Climate-Resilient Housing: Scaling Diffusion Transformers for Disaster Risk Prediction

Climate hazards increasingly disrupt urban transportation and emergency-response operations by damaging housing stock, degrading infrastructure, and reducing network accessibility. This paper presents Skjold-DiT, a diffusion-transformer framework that integrates heterogeneous spatio-temporal urban data to forecast building-level climate-risk indicators while explicitly incorporating transportation-network structure and accessibility signals relevant to intelligent vehicles (e.g., emergency reachability and evacuation-route constraints). Concretely, Skjold-DiT enables hazard-conditioned routing constraints by producing calibrated, uncertainty-aware accessibility layers (reachability, travel-time inflation, and route redundancy) that can be consumed by intelligent-vehicle routing and emergency dispatch systems. Skjold-DiT combines: (1) Fjell-Prompt, a prompt-based conditioning interface designed to support cross-city transfer; (2) Norrland-Fusion, a cross-modal attention mechanism unifying hazard maps/imagery, building attributes, demographics, and transportation infrastructure into a shared latent representation; and (3) Valkyrie-Forecast, a counterfactual simulator for generating probabilistic risk trajectories under intervention prompts. We introduce the Baltic-Caspian Urban Resilience (BCUR) dataset with 847,392 building-level observations across six cities, including multi-hazard annotations (e.g., flood and heat indicators) and transportation accessibility features. Experiments evaluate prediction quality, cross-city generalization, calibration, and downstream transportation-relevant outcomes, including reachability and hazard-conditioned travel times under counterfactual interventions.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 5 2

Hybrid Memetic Search for Electric Vehicle Routing with Time Windows, Simultaneous Pickup-Delivery, and Partial Recharges

With growing environmental concerns, electric vehicles for logistics have gained significant attention within the computational intelligence community in recent years. This work addresses an emerging and significant extension of the electric vehicle routing problem (EVRP), namely EVRP with time windows, simultaneous pickup-delivery, and partial recharges (EVRP-TW-SPD), which has widespread real-world applications. We propose a hybrid memetic algorithm (HMA) for solving EVRP-TW-SPD. HMA incorporates two novel components: a parallel-sequential station insertion (PSSI) procedure for handling partial recharges that can better avoid local optima compared to purely sequential insertion, and a cross-domain neighborhood search (CDNS) that explores solution spaces of both electric and non-electric problem domains simultaneously. These components can also be easily applied to various EVRP variants. To bridge the gap between existing benchmarks and real-world scenarios, we introduce a new, large-scale EVRP-TW-SPD benchmark set derived from real-world applications, containing instances with many more customers and charging stations than existing benchmark instances. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significant performance advantages of HMA over existing algorithms across a wide range of problem instances. Both the benchmark set and HMA are to be made open-source to facilitate further research in this area.

  • 3 authors
·
May 24, 2025

Sparsity-Constrained Optimal Transport

Regularized optimal transport (OT) is now increasingly used as a loss or as a matching layer in neural networks. Entropy-regularized OT can be computed using the Sinkhorn algorithm but it leads to fully-dense transportation plans, meaning that all sources are (fractionally) matched with all targets. To address this issue, several works have investigated quadratic regularization instead. This regularization preserves sparsity and leads to unconstrained and smooth (semi) dual objectives, that can be solved with off-the-shelf gradient methods. Unfortunately, quadratic regularization does not give direct control over the cardinality (number of nonzeros) of the transportation plan. We propose in this paper a new approach for OT with explicit cardinality constraints on the transportation plan. Our work is motivated by an application to sparse mixture of experts, where OT can be used to match input tokens such as image patches with expert models such as neural networks. Cardinality constraints ensure that at most k tokens are matched with an expert, which is crucial for computational performance reasons. Despite the nonconvexity of cardinality constraints, we show that the corresponding (semi) dual problems are tractable and can be solved with first-order gradient methods. Our method can be thought as a middle ground between unregularized OT (recovered in the limit case k=1) and quadratically-regularized OT (recovered when k is large enough). The smoothness of the objectives increases as k increases, giving rise to a trade-off between convergence speed and sparsity of the optimal plan.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 30, 2022

GroupTravelBench: Benchmarking LLM Agents on Multi-Person Travel Planning

Travel planning is a realistic task for evaluating the planning and tool-use abilities of LLM agents. However, existing benchmarks typically assume only a single user, thereby avoiding one of the most challenging aspects of real-world scenarios: an agent's ability to identify and resolve conflicts among multiple users. To address this gap, we introduce GroupTravelBench, the first benchmark for multi-user, multi-turn travel planning. Based on real user profiles, POI data, and ticket price data, we synthesize 650 tasks and divide them into three difficulty levels. Beyond standard abilities in single-user itinerary planning, such as multi-step reasoning and tool use, our benchmark further evaluates three key capabilities required for travel agents: (i) elicitation -- proactively engaging in multi-turn dialogue to gather preferences from each user; (ii) coordination -- resolving conflicts among users through compromise or subgrouping strategies; and (iii) planning -- searching for travel plans that maximize overall group utility while maintaining fairness and feasibility. To simulate real-world conversational itinerary planning while enabling reliable tool use and offline evaluation, we build an interactive sandbox environment with cached real-world tool data. We evaluate a wide range of LLMs and find that even frontier models still show substantial weaknesses in preference coverage and group fairness. GroupTravelBench provides a practical and reproducible benchmark for advancing research on LLM agents for real-world travel planning.

  • 6 authors
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May 23

Reinforcement Learning for Flow-Matching Policies with Density Transport

We present an online reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for fine-tuning flow-matching policies in continuous-control problems. Our key insight is to view RL-based policy improvement as a transport of action densities towards regions of high reward, which naturally aligns with the transport formulation of flow matching models. Prior methods either approximate the current or optimal policy distribution or resort to distillation, which introduces biased gradients or sacrifices multimodal modeling capacity. In contrast, our approach for RL with Density Transport, which we name RLDT, constructs a transport field from a maximum-entropy RL objective using Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD). Then, it finetunes a pretrained flow matching policy to align with this field. Training with this alignment objective is nontrivial because flow-matching policies generate actions via a multi-step process, making direct gradient-based optimization challenging. To overcome this challenge and stabilize training, we approximate policy actions from intermediate denoising steps via expected-target estimation. This allows the transport-field update to propagate into the network parameters without unstable backpropagation through time. Experimental results demonstrate that RLDT outperforms competitive baselines in reward quality and convergence speed. This performance holds across diverse continuous-control tasks, encompassing both dense and sparse rewards, as well as state- and vision-based long-horizon robot manipulation. The project webpage is https://rpfey.github.io/rldt/{https://rpfey.github.io/rldt/}.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 6

Forecasting Trajectory and Behavior of Road-Agents Using Spectral Clustering in Graph-LSTMs

We present a novel approach for traffic forecasting in urban traffic scenarios using a combination of spectral graph analysis and deep learning. We predict both the low-level information (future trajectories) as well as the high-level information (road-agent behavior) from the extracted trajectory of each road-agent. Our formulation represents the proximity between the road agents using a weighted dynamic geometric graph (DGG). We use a two-stream graph-LSTM network to perform traffic forecasting using these weighted DGGs. The first stream predicts the spatial coordinates of road-agents, while the second stream predicts whether a road-agent is going to exhibit overspeeding, underspeeding, or neutral behavior by modeling spatial interactions between road-agents. Additionally, we propose a new regularization algorithm based on spectral clustering to reduce the error margin in long-term prediction (3-5 seconds) and improve the accuracy of the predicted trajectories. Moreover, we prove a theoretical upper bound on the regularized prediction error. We evaluate our approach on the Argoverse, Lyft, Apolloscape, and NGSIM datasets and highlight the benefits over prior trajectory prediction methods. In practice, our approach reduces the average prediction error by approximately 75% over prior algorithms and achieves a weighted average accuracy of 91.2% for behavior prediction. Additionally, our spectral regularization improves long-term prediction by up to 70%.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 2, 2019

Broadening Access to Transportation Safety Data with Generative AI: A Schema-Grounded Framework for Spatial Natural Language Queries

Transportation safety analysis requires integrating crash records, roadway attributes, and geospatial data through GIS-based workflows, but access remains uneven across agencies and community stakeholders. Technical prerequisites create a gap between analytical tools central to safety planning and the practitioners able to use them. Local agencies, school committees, and residents may have safety concerns but limited capacity to retrieve, filter, map, and analyze relevant data. Generative AI offers a way to narrow this divide, but its public-sector use raises questions about reliability, reproducibility, and governance. This paper presents a schema-grounded natural language interface for transportation safety analysis, using a large language model (LLM) to interpret user intent while preserving deterministic, reviewable execution against an authoritative database. User queries are translated into structured semantic frames, validated by a rule-based layer, compiled into a typed directed acyclic graph of spatial operations, and executed against a PostGIS database. This bounded design separates language interpretation from deterministic execution, keeping results reproducible and schema-grounded while removing access barriers. The framework is evaluated using a statewide Massachusetts transportation safety database integrating crash records, roadway attributes, and geospatial layers including schools, bus stops, crosswalks, and municipal boundaries. All queries executed successfully; the validation layer corrects errors in 29% of evaluation queries, reflecting the gap between flexible natural language and strict schema-grounded requirements. The results suggest that combining natural language accessibility with deterministic execution is a practical direction for broadening access to transportation safety data, with implications for trustworthy AI in public-sector planning.

Path Planning in Physically Viable World Models

Robots deployed in unstructured outdoor environments often plan from scene reconstructions collected before deployment because operators cannot remap large or remote sites before every mission. As a result, robots must make long-horizon planning decisions using stale maps that assume the terrain remains unchanged, even though physical changes to the environment may render previously feasible routes unsafe or unreachable at execution time. We present a physically viable world model for evaluating what-if queries for robot navigation under future terrain change. The system augments reconstructed 3D Gaussian splat scenes with physics-based simulation to generate physically modified versions of the same environment without recollecting sensor data or rebuilding the map. We then implement a terrain-aware planner that accounts for physical events, obstacles, and deformations that are simulated by the world model. This allows robots and human operators to evaluate whether planned routes remain feasible before committing to a planned route, particularly in constrained environments where retreat or recovery may become impossible once conditions change. We evaluate the system on a real outdoor field site in Central Texas using simulated flooding across multiple severity levels. We measure route and mission feasibility as terrain conditions deteriorate under physically simulated interventions. Our results show that physically viable world models expose long-horizon route failures and rerouting behavior that are not apparent when planning only on the original reconstructed environment, allowing robots to evaluate how future terrain changes may affect route feasibility before deployment.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 30

From Words to Routes: Applying Large Language Models to Vehicle Routing

LLMs have shown impressive progress in robotics (e.g., manipulation and navigation) with natural language task descriptions. The success of LLMs in these tasks leads us to wonder: What is the ability of LLMs to solve vehicle routing problems (VRPs) with natural language task descriptions? In this work, we study this question in three steps. First, we construct a dataset with 21 types of single- or multi-vehicle routing problems. Second, we evaluate the performance of LLMs across four basic prompt paradigms of text-to-code generation, each involving different types of text input. We find that the basic prompt paradigm, which generates code directly from natural language task descriptions, performs the best for GPT-4, achieving 56% feasibility, 40% optimality, and 53% efficiency. Third, based on the observation that LLMs may not be able to provide correct solutions at the initial attempt, we propose a framework that enables LLMs to refine solutions through self-reflection, including self-debugging and self-verification. With GPT-4, our proposed framework achieves a 16% increase in feasibility, a 7% increase in optimality, and a 15% increase in efficiency. Moreover, we examine the sensitivity of GPT-4 to task descriptions, specifically focusing on how its performance changes when certain details are omitted from the task descriptions, yet the core meaning is preserved. Our findings reveal that such omissions lead to a notable decrease in performance: 4% in feasibility, 4% in optimality, and 5% in efficiency. Website: https://sites.google.com/view/words-to-routes/

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 15, 2024

Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of AI-Driven Traffic Flow Patterns and Land Use Interaction: A GeoAI-Based Analysis of Multimodal Urban Mobility

Urban traffic flow is governed by the complex, nonlinear interaction between land use configuration and spatiotemporally heterogeneous mobility demand. Conventional global regression and time-series models cannot simultaneously capture these multi-scale dynamics across multiple travel modes. This study proposes a GeoAI Hybrid analytical framework that sequentially integrates Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), Random Forest (RF), and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (ST-GCN) to model the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of traffic flow patterns and their interaction with land use across three mobility modes: motor vehicle, public transit, and active transport. Applying the framework to an empirically calibrated dataset of 350 traffic analysis zones across six cities spanning two contrasting urban morphologies, four key findings emerge: (i) the GeoAI Hybrid achieves a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.119 and an R^2 of 0.891, outperforming all benchmarks by 23-62%; (ii) SHAP analysis identifies land use mix as the strongest predictor for motor vehicle flows and transit stop density as the strongest predictor for public transit; (iii) DBSCAN clustering identifies five functionally distinct urban traffic typologies with a silhouette score of 0.71, and GeoAI Hybrid residuals exhibit Moran's I=0.218 (p<0.001), a 72% reduction relative to OLS baselines; and (iv) cross-city transfer experiments reveal moderate within-cluster transferability (R^2>=0.78) and limited cross-cluster generalisability, underscoring the primacy of urban morphological context. The framework offers planners and transportation engineers an interpretable, scalable toolkit for evidence-based multimodal mobility management and land use policy design.

  • 1 authors
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Mar 5 2

Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Opportunities, Alternatives and Challenges for Decarbonizing the Aviation Industry and Foster the Renewable Chemicals

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) are pivotal in the global effort to decarbonize the aviation sector and meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets established by international frameworks such as CORSIA and Brazil ProBioQAV. This study evaluates SAF potential to reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 80% while being compatible with existing aviation infrastructure. Through bibliometric analysis, scenario evaluation, legal and regulatory framework analysis and economic modeling, the research examines two key SAF production technologies: Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (HEFA-SPK) and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) pathways in the Brazilian context. The findings reveal significant economic challenges, particularly high feedstock and production costs, which hinder SAF competitiveness with fossil fuels at recent and current market prices in Brazil, leading to the analysis of potential incentives and commercial conditions aiming to increase economic attractiveness of SAF production. Based on interviews with relevant stakeholders and decision makers in the industry, scenarios incorporating tax incentives, carbon credits, capital grants, and premium pricing for SAF and its biogenic by-products demonstrate that combined policy interventions and commercial arrangements, along with a regulated Carbon Market are essential for SAF economic viability. Future research is suggested to look at regional assessments of feedstock availability, supply chain logistics, and global market eligibility. This research provides insights for guiding public policy and private investment to support the transition to sustainable aviation in Brazil and beyond.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 4, 2025

Towards generalizable single-cell perturbation modeling via the Conditional Monge Gap

Learning the response of single-cells to various treatments offers great potential to enable targeted therapies. In this context, neural optimal transport (OT) has emerged as a principled methodological framework because it inherently accommodates the challenges of unpaired data induced by cell destruction during data acquisition. However, most existing OT approaches are incapable of conditioning on different treatment contexts (e.g., time, drug treatment, drug dosage, or cell type) and we still lack methods that unanimously show promising generalization performance to unseen treatments. Here, we propose the Conditional Monge Gap which learns OT maps conditionally on arbitrary covariates. We demonstrate its value in predicting single-cell perturbation responses conditional to one or multiple drugs, a drug dosage, or combinations thereof. We find that our conditional models achieve results comparable and sometimes even superior to the condition-specific state-of-the-art on scRNA-seq as well as multiplexed protein imaging data. Notably, by aggregating data across conditions we perform cross-task learning which unlocks remarkable generalization abilities to unseen drugs or drug dosages, widely outperforming other conditional models in capturing heterogeneity (i.e., higher moments) in the perturbed population. Finally, by scaling to hundreds of conditions and testing on unseen drugs, we narrow the gap between structure-based and effect-based drug representations, suggesting a promising path to the successful prediction of perturbation effects for unseen treatments.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 11, 2025